In my opinion Mjallby have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Mjallby coming for this game with huge mental advantage. Since April 2022 they played 4 matches against Sirius in all competitions and won all of them. In previous season Mjallby won here 1:0.

After the break Sirius lost against Malmo on away and against Hammarby at home. In previous round they won 3:0 on away against Degerfors from relegation zone, but results looks better than their performance: expected goals scored for Degerfors 1.40, for Sirius 1.83. Their defensive formation after the break looks very unstable after the break - conceded 5 goals in 3 matches, but according to the expected goals conceded model should concede even more (6.40).

On the other only two teams in whole league conceded less goals in current season than Mjallby. That should really make big difference today. They had very hard schedule after the break as they played 3 matches against teams from top6, but recorded 4 points in those 3 matches. In last away game Mjallby won 2:1 against Malmo. Impressive achievement. That was first loss at home for Malmo in current season (6 wins and one draw in 7 games before kick off!). For sure Mjallby coming for this game without any fear.

In current season Sirius failed to win in 5 of 7 home league matches and I really don't see them as so big favorite here. Value is on away side, no doubt about that.

在我看来，在今天的比赛中，我们有很好的机会至少得一分。

我带着巨大的心理优势来参加这场比赛。自2022年4月以来，他们在所有比赛中与天狼星进行了4场比赛，并赢得了所有比赛。在上个赛季，Mjallby在这里以1:0获胜。

中场休息后，小天狼星客场输给马尔默，主场输给哈马比。在上一轮比赛中，他们客场3:0战胜了降级区的德格弗斯，但结果看起来比他们的表现要好:德格弗斯的预期进球数为1.40，天狼星的预期进球数为1.83。中场休息后他们的防守阵型看起来很不稳定，3场比赛丢了5球，但根据预期丢球模型应该丢的更多(6.40)。

在其他联赛中，只有两支球队本赛季的失球比曼城少。这在今天应该会有很大的不同。休息后他们的赛程非常艰难，他们与前6的球队进行了3场比赛，但在这3场比赛中只拿到了4分。在上一场客场比赛中，麦尔比2:1战胜马尔默。令人印象深刻的成就。这是马尔默本赛季在主场的第一场失利(开赛前7场比赛6胜1平!)我肯定会毫无畏惧地来看这场比赛。

在这个赛季，天狼星在7场主场比赛中有5场没有获胜，我真的不认为他们是那么大的热门。毫无疑问，价值是不重要的。