AC Milan vs Napoli

AC Milan and Napoli lock horns in this UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg battle at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) early Thursday morning Beijing time. The stakes are of course sky-high as at this stage of the competition all teams have their eyes on the trophy! However, neither team are among the biggest favorites to win this competition – Manchester City are the best team in the World and definitely have the biggest chance to win this competition. Even so, Napoli lifting the trophy would not be a massive surprise! Milan winning is, however, very unlikely. The bookies still seem to undervalue Napoli – especially in the Champions League against big European teams. They are having an incredibly strong season. I did rate them higher than most football journalists and the betting market in my sophisticated in-depth preseason analysis but most certainly did not expect them to be this good! They have totally dominated the Serie A, the fourth-best league on the planet, and top the standings with a whopping 74 points to their account! They have netted the ball a stunning 66 goals in this league so far this season. AC Milan and Inter have scored the second-highest number of goals – 48 to be precise. Indeed, in terms of offensive quality Napoli have a massive edge over the hosts! However, without the amazingly talented and efficient star striker Victor Osimhen Napoli's offense is weaker than so far this season. The Nigerian is out due to a thigh injury sustained on national duty. I believe the betting market has over-reacted to his absence and quite possibly with him playing in this game the odds on Napoli would be much lower and we would not have a lucrative betting opportunity to try to extend the very good record betting on this competition.. Napoli play great as a team and I fully trust them here! They have an intelligent and experienced coach in Luciano Spalletti who is an underrated professional. He is a true leader and should Napoli find themselves in a tricky situation I trust his leadership skills.. According to my sources Napoli also have a very good team spirit – especially for a top team where competition among the players – often with a big ego - is fierce, sometimes even merciless possibly resulting in sub-optimal team spirit.. The biggest, usually somewhat sharp bookies that accept the largest bets from customers see this match slightly differently – at least the time of writing this analysis late Tuesday evening Beijing time. Some of these bookies see the hosts as lim favorites offering them odds of around 2.70-2.75 - some see Napoli as narrow favorites. I would expect smart money to pile up on Napoli – consequently their odds should go down. This is why I recommend my fans to bet on Napoli as soon as possible!

Despite the fact that Napoli - even without Osimhen – have massive offensive power and Milan are surely capable of scoring I see this match as more low-scoring than the betting market does. The probability for under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 63%. The first legs in high-stake games are often pretty defensive, sometimes even cautious football – especially in the first half.. Even a goalless draw would not be a huge surprise here. Milan players and the smart coach are surely fully aware of the fact that in an open, very offensive ”goal-scoring contest” kind of clash Napoli would probably have the upper hand.. Milan are having a somewhat disappointing season and are in the 4th place in the Serie A with just 52 points to their account. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they have been neither lucky or unlucky so far. If it wasn't for Juventus being penalized -15 points by federation decision Milan would not be in top-4 and I even now I would not be surprised to see Atalanta and/or Inter toppling them during the remainder of the season. Napoli are very close to securing the Serie A title mathematically and will surely have their full focus on the Champions League. I expect the to drop points in several matches in the Serie A later this spring and betting on them at very low odds in this competition might not be the best idea..Yes, Napoli have had some luck on their side and I have taken this into account in my probability estimation. They way they have played in Serie A and especially in the Champions League throughout the season earns massive respect from me. They have also played highly entertaining football but unlike some football journalists believe are fully capable of highly tactical "chess" against a dangerous and defensive opponent. Napoli have a 42% chance of winning this match – the recommended bet is, however, them not to lose (+0.5 goals handicap option). This option is the best choice as the bookies have underestimated the probability of a draw - 33% is the chance for this result. Napoli have won on each of their last three trips to the fabled Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. They also beat Milan 2-1 there in Serie A earlier this season. Yes, the home advantage is of course there but Napoli have won eight away games in a row and in an all Italian battle the home advantage is slightly smaller than in say a Milan facing for example an English team.. Moreover, Milan have failed to impress anyone recently winning just one of their last six matches! Napoli, on the other hand, have taken 11 wins in their latest 13 games! Yes, Milan did beat Napoli away from home 4-0 in a somewhat bizarre game on the 2nd of April. They did play well and everything they tried seemed to work! Napoli were far from their best in this game and made some silly defensive mistakes. Even so, their defense is better than that of Milan. Napoli have allowed just 21 goals in Serie A - Milan have conceded 36 goals. The 0-4 final score is very misleading as Napoli had 61% ball possession and recorded many more scoring attempts (20-14), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks - 65-25. Milan did manage more shots on goal and expected goals (xG) though. This result seems to confuse the betting market ahead of the quarter-final.. I raised Milan's – and lowered Napoli's power rating that reflects the teams' pure class only marginally after this Serie A clash. Milan failed to beat a pretty lowly team Empoli in their most recent game - no goals were scored at San Siro. Napoli, on the other hand, defeated Lecce 2-1 away from home despite not being quite at their best..

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北京时间周四凌晨，欧洲冠军联赛1 / 4决赛首回合，AC米兰和那不勒斯在圣西罗球场展开激战。在比赛的这个阶段，赌注当然是很高的，因为所有的球队都在盯着奖杯!然而，这两支球队都不是最有希望赢得这场比赛的球队——曼城是世界上最好的球队，绝对有最大的机会赢得这场比赛。即便如此，那不勒斯举起奖杯也不会是一个巨大的惊喜!然而，米兰夺冠的可能性很小。博彩公司似乎仍然低估了那不勒斯的价值，尤其是在欧冠联赛对阵欧洲豪门的时候。他们正在经历一个令人难以置信的强势赛季。在我复杂深入的季前赛分析中，我对他们的评价确实比大多数足球记者和博彩市场都要高，但最肯定的是，我没想到他们会这么好!他们已经完全统治了意甲，这个星球上第四好的联赛，并以惊人的74分排名第一!本赛季到目前为止，他们在联赛中打进了惊人的66个球。AC米兰和国际米兰的进球数第二高，准确地说是48个。事实上，在进攻质量方面，那不勒斯比东道主有巨大的优势!然而，由于缺少了令人惊叹的天才和高效的明星前锋维克多·奥西蒙，那不勒斯的进攻比本赛季迄今为止要弱得多。尼日利亚人因在国家队比赛中大腿受伤而缺席比赛。我相信博彩市场对他的缺席反应过度了，很可能他参加了这场比赛，那不勒斯的赔率会低得多，我们将没有一个有利可图的投注机会来试图扩大在这场比赛中的良好记录。那不勒斯是一支伟大的球队，我完全信任他们!他们有一个聪明而有经验的教练，卢西亚诺·斯帕莱蒂，一个被低估的职业教练。他是一个真正的领袖，如果那不勒斯陷入困境，我相信他的领导才能。根据我的消息来源，那不勒斯也有很好的团队精神，尤其是作为一支顶级球队，球员之间的竞争非常激烈，有时甚至是无情的，可能会导致次优的团队精神。规模最大、通常有些精明、接受客户最大赌注的博彩公司对这场比赛的看法略有不同——至少在北京时间周二晚间撰写本文时是这样。一些博彩公司认为东道主的赔率在2.70-2.75左右，有些则认为那不勒斯的赔率很小。我预计聪明的钱会在那不勒斯身上堆积起来——因此他们的赔率应该会下降。这就是为什么我建议我的球迷尽快押注那不勒斯!

尽管那不勒斯——即使没有奥西蒙——拥有强大的进攻力量，米兰也肯定有能力进球，但我认为这场比赛比博彩市场上的得分更低。总进球数在2.5球以下的概率为63%。高风险比赛的首回合通常是相当防守的，有时甚至是谨慎的足球——尤其是在上半场。即使是一场零进球的平局，在这里也不会是一个巨大的惊喜。米兰球员和聪明的教练肯定充分意识到这样一个事实，在一场开放的，非常进攻性的“进球比赛”中，那不勒斯很可能占据上风。米兰本赛季的表现有些令人失望，目前在意甲联赛中仅积52分排名第四。就期望积分(xPTS)而言，到目前为止，他们既不幸运也不不幸。如果不是尤文图斯被足协罚了15分，米兰就不会进入前四，即使是现在，我也不会对亚特兰大和/或国米在赛季剩余时间里将他们推倒感到惊讶。那不勒斯非常接近获得意甲冠军，他们肯定会把全部精力放在欧冠联赛上。我预计在今年春天晚些时候的几场意甲比赛中他们会丢分，在这场比赛中以非常低的赔率下注他们可能不是最好的主意。是的，那不勒斯有一些运气，我已经在我的概率估计中考虑了这一点。他们在意甲尤其是欧冠的表现赢得了我的尊重。他们踢出了极具娱乐性的足球，但不像一些足球记者认为的那样，他们完全有能力与一个危险和防守的对手下棋。那不勒斯有42%的机会赢得这场比赛——然而，推荐的赌注是，他们不会输(+0.5个进球的不利选项)。这个选项是最好的选择，因为庄家低估了平局的概率——33%是这个结果的概率。那不勒斯在最近三次前往传说中的朱塞佩梅阿扎球场都取得了胜利。本赛季早些时候，他们还在意甲联赛中以2-1击败了米兰。是的，主场优势当然存在，但那不勒斯已经连续赢了8场客场比赛，在一场全意大利的战斗中，主场优势比米兰面对一支英国球队略小。此外，米兰最近没有给任何人留下深刻的印象，在最近的六场比赛中只赢了一场!另一方面，那不勒斯在最近的13场比赛中取得了11场胜利!是的，米兰确实在4月2日的一场有点奇怪的比赛中以4-0击败了那不勒斯。他们确实玩得很好，他们所做的一切似乎都奏效了!那不勒斯在这场比赛中远非他们的最佳状态，并且犯了一些愚蠢的防守错误。即便如此，他们的防守还是比米兰好。那不勒斯在意甲只丢了21球，而米兰丢了36球。0-4的最终比分非常具有误导性，因为那不勒斯有61%的控球率，记录了更多的得分尝试(20-14)，总传球，完成传球，攻击和危险攻击- 65-25。米兰确实有更多的射门和预期进球(xG)。在四分之一决赛之前，这个结果似乎让博彩市场感到困惑。在这场意甲比赛后，我提高了米兰的评级，而降低了那不勒斯的评级，这反映了两支球队的纯粹水平。米兰在最近的一场比赛中未能击败实力较弱的恩波利，在圣西罗没有进球。另一方面，那不勒斯在客场2-1击败莱切，尽管他们并没有处于最佳状态。