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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A lucrative match in Denmark!

2022-11-10

比赛分析

丹麦杯

已完赛

星期五2022-11-11 00:30

解读理由

Viborg VS Midtjylland

Viborg and Midjylland lock horns in this Landspokal (Danish Cup) battle at Energi Viborg Arena in Viborg. I expect both teams to be motivated here and field at least close to their best starting eleven. The biggest, sharpest bookies see this as more or less as a coin toss (50-50%) match - at least at the time of writing this preview. I think the odds on the betting market are set wrong here! The main reason is probably the Danish Superliga – where both teams play - standings which would indicate that Viborg are the better team.. This is definitely not the case! I will not let the standings fool me here! Viborg currently occupy the 2nd place after 16 rounds of play and have grabbed 29 points. Their goal difference is 23:16. They have unarguably been better than I would have expected this season so far and I have, as a result, raised their power rating that illustrates the teams' pure class. At the moment they are in 6th place in this ranking. They bookies seem to have reacted too much to their strong start to the season and over-values the hosts – once again. Let's not forget that season they finished in 7th place with 44 points to their account and had to place in the relegation group! Not that much has changed from lost season.. They have taken six more points in the Superliga than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS). They have also scored more goals and allowed less goals than they should have in terms expected goals (xG) and expected goals allowed (xGA). In their most recent match, they were mediocre at home against Aarhus who currently occupy the 7th place. They were the favorites here on the betting market but it was 1-1 draw after a relatively balanced clash. Before this they took a surprising and surprising 2-1 win away from home over Silkeborg. It was indeed a good achievement as underdogs and perhaps this win affects the odds too much here.. Silkeborg had 58% possession and also recorded more shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. I think it is only a matter of time until Viborg start losing more games..

Midtjylland have a had quite difficult season in the Superliga but they have proved their class in the Europa League, the second-best of UEFA's club competitions. They finished in second place in Group F after a very good Dutch team, Feyonoord and qualified for the 1/16-finals. A big Italian club Lazio were third and Austrian Sturm Graz fourth. Midtjylland's score difference was good – 12:8. All the four clubs are mentioned above are much bigger by financial standards and better overall than Viborg. In the Superliga Midtjylland are in 8th place with 22 points to their account but would have deserved several more points in terms of xPTS. They have very good team, full of talented young players, and will surely start improving soon. I rate them as the second-best team in this league. They have had some defensive issues but I trust their coach's ability to make it more solid moving forward.. In their most recent match they played well and took a point from Nordsjaelland who currently top the standings. It was a balanced match and a no goals were scored. Last season Midtjylland finished in 2nd place with 65 points and a few years ago they even played in the Champions League group phase! They have a 44% chance to win this game.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

维堡VS米德吉兰

Viborg和Midjylland在Viborg的Energi Viborg竞技场的Landspokal(丹麦杯)之战中针锋相对。我希望两支球队在这里都有动力,至少派出接近他们最好的11人首发阵容。最大、最精明的博彩公司认为这或多或少是一场掷硬币(50-50%)的比赛——至少在撰写这篇预览文章时是这样。我认为博彩市场的赔率是错的!主要原因可能是两支球队都参加的丹麦超级联赛的排名,这表明维堡是更好的球队。这绝对不是事实!我不会被排名欺骗的!在16轮比赛后,维博格目前排名第二,并获得29分。他们的净胜球是23:16。毫无疑问,他们本赛季到目前为止的表现比我预期的要好,因此,我提高了他们的实力评级,这说明了这两支球队纯粹的水平。目前,他们在这个排名中排名第六。博彩公司似乎对他们本赛季的强势开局反应过度,再次高估了东道主的价值。我们不要忘记那个赛季,他们以44分的成绩排在第7名,并且不得不进入降级组!从输掉的赛季开始,并没有太大的变化。他们在超级联赛中多拿了6分,比他们应得的积分(xPTS)多。从预期进球数(xG)和预期被允许进球数(xGA)来看,他们的进球数比应有的进球数多,失球数少。在最近的一场比赛中,他们在主场对阵目前排名第7的奥胡斯时表现平平。他们在博彩市场上是最受欢迎的,但在一场相对平衡的冲突后,双方打成了1比1的平局。在此之前,他们在客场出人意料地2-1战胜了西尔克堡。作为不被看好的球队,这的确是一项不错的成就,也许这场胜利对赔率的影响太大了。西尔克博格的控球率为58%,射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数也都有所增加。我认为维博格输掉更多比赛只是时间问题。

米特日兰在超级联赛中度过了一个相当艰难的赛季,但他们在欧联杯证明了他们的水平,欧联杯是欧足联第二好的俱乐部赛事。在荷兰队费尤诺德之后,他们以F组第二的成绩晋级1/16决赛。意大利豪门拉齐奥位列第三,奥地利格拉茨斯特姆位列第四。米德捷兰的比分差距不错,是12:8。以上提到的四家俱乐部从财务标准来看都比维堡大得多,整体上也比维堡好。在超级联赛中,米德德兰以22分排名第8,但在xPTS方面,他们应该得到更多的积分。他们有一支很好的球队,有很多有天赋的年轻球员,肯定很快就会开始进步。我认为他们是这个联盟中第二好的球队。他们在防守上有一些问题,但我相信他们教练的能力会让他们的防守更加稳固。在最近的一场比赛中,他们踢得很好,从目前排名第一的诺德斯雅兰手中拿了一分。这是一场势均力敌的比赛,没有进球。上赛季米特伊拉兰以65分排名第二,几年前他们甚至打过欧冠小组赛!他们有44%的机会赢得这场比赛。


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