I am sure you know the circumstances why Chelsea is a mess at the moment and I am not going to discuss that, but the point is that they are a mess, they are in between far more important matches nothing speaks for Chelsea on this very likely let go - game.

Southampton have lost only 3 games at home out of their 15 this season, and this one does not look like the toughest possible. Chelsea have conceded 7 goals in their last two games, v Brentford and Real, and their focus in the visit to Madrid where they have to win at least by 2 to stand a chance of qualification.

Looking at xG at this point is rather useless as there were so dramatic changes in Chelsea performances after the bad news, until March they were the 3rd best team in the league. Southampton are midtable class both result and performance-wise.

Team news inform us of a rather strong situation at Chelsea, but it is very likely that Tuchel will field a completely different side today than what he sees as his best possible lineup.

Southampton had an excellent run since late January until start of March, but it is mostly randomness and white noise. They were the weaker side only away at Villa. Soton injury situation is good one.

To summarize, I like to go against a rotating side who are in a big mess, and whose thoughts are in the next week's match. Home win.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

我相信你知道的情况为什么切尔西是一团糟,我不打算讨论,但关键是一团糟,他们之间更重要的比赛没有代表切尔西在这个很有可能放开——比赛。

南安普顿在本赛季的15场比赛中只在主场输了3场，而这一场看起来并不是最艰难的。切尔西在对布伦特福德和皇马的两场比赛中丢了7个球，他们的重点是客场挑战皇马，在那里他们必须至少赢2球才能有机会晋级。

在这一点上看xG是没有用的，因为在坏消息之后切尔西的表现发生了戏剧性的变化，直到三月他们是联赛第三强的球队。南安普顿在成绩和表现方面都处于中游。

球队的消息告诉我们切尔西的形势相当严峻，但是图切尔今天很可能会派出一支完全不同的阵容，而不是他认为最好的阵容。

南安普敦从1月底到3月初一直运行良好。他们在客场对阵维拉时是弱队。索顿的伤病情况很好。

总而言之，我喜欢对抗那些处于混乱状态的轮换球队。