Greuther FurthVSBorussia Monchengladbach

I am going with a double pick since the odds for one of them are far too low to have as an individual post.

Greuther Furth have been hiding in an ambush through most of their recent Bundesliga games and they kind of remind me of a team we had in Bundesliga a couple of seasons ago that kept drawing its games until eventually relegated. I fail to understand the concept of this approach Furth manager has - “to defend goal at all costs”, when obviously this may only set you up for a maximum of 1 point per game. So what Greuther has been doing the last rounds in the league is play anti-football, wreck opposition attacks, while creating nothing at the opposite end. You may check the heatmaps of Furth’s 0:0 draws against Freiburg and EIntracht Frankfurt to see how ridiculously locked up Greuther was in those games.

So with all due respect towards their selfless efforts to put on fights in every round despite the fate being obvious to all (and that is relegation to Bundesliga II), the more telling results and performance would be the 1:6 defeat against RB Leipzig or the 1:4 losses to Wolfsburg and Bayern.

As a reminder, Gladbach, who have been struggling through the entire season, smashed Furth in the reverse fixture in November 2021 by 4 goals to 0. In fact there is yet to be a match between the two clubs where Greuther would remain undefeated.

This is just history, of course, yet goes to show the class difference between two clubs in context.

Gladbach has been climbing out from the relegation waters through some positive results. Still the level of their football is off the standards their manager is looking for. They were fractions away from losing at home to Mainz the other week and were hardly better than Bochum in the 2:0 interrupted away game.

Nonetheless, there are two main arguments making me expect Gladbach go home with maximum points - back to back very fortunate 0:0 results for Furth, meaning they are overdue a few conceded goals and a defeat by now (simply for statistical reasons); the 2nd being Gladbach star attacking trio Plea-Stindl-Embolo(Thuram) picking their game up after reuniting.

Furth has to start taking risks eventually and what better place to do it but at home. The change of approach may play a treacherous trick on them. Expecting a few goals and an away win here.

VfL WolfsburgVSArminia Bielefeld

Another pick on an underperforming team of the 2021/22 season, which is Wolfsburg. Looking at their results one would naturally want to stay away from betting on them. But every run, good or bad, eventually comes to an end. In the case with Wolfsburg, they’ve been actually doing better in their games than the score lines might suggest.

The 0:3 midweek loss to Augsburg was far from reality, when in fact the game was 50/50 for most parts and Wolfsburg were unfortunate to remain without a goal by half-time.

Looking back at the 0:2 home loss to Bayer Leverkusen we’d see the same picture - level game, Wolfsburg hitting the woodwork twice (!) and matching opponents in all statistical data (14 v 15 shots, 50% v 50% possession, 7 vs. 7 corners and so on).

The bottom line point is, Wolfsburg is showing ok football, they’re at home, they’re hurt, angry and they are possessing a three times better squad than their today’s opponent Arminia.

Without reflecting too much on the visitors I am calling a home win here for Wolfsburg to break the downtrend and finally make their offensive chances count.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

菲尔特VS门兴格拉德巴赫

我将选择双选，因为他们中的一个的几率太低了，作为一个单独的帖子。

在最近的德甲比赛中，格鲁瑟·费斯一直处于埋伏状态，这让我想起了几个赛季前我们在德甲的一支球队，他们一直战平，直到最后被降级。我不理解弗斯教练的这一理念——“不惜一切代价守住球门”，显然这可能会让你每场比赛最多得1分。因此，格鲁瑟在联赛的最后几轮一直在打反足球，破坏对手的进攻，同时在对方没有创造任何东西。你可以查看弗思0:0战平弗莱堡和法兰克福的热身图，看看格鲁瑟在那些比赛中的表现有多可笑。

所以冒昧的向他们的无私努力穿上战斗在每一轮尽管命运是有目共睹(这是降级德甲II),更能说明问题的结果和性能将是1:6输给RB莱比锡或1:4沃尔夫斯堡和拜仁的损失。

值得一提的是，整个赛季都在苦苦挣扎的格拉德巴赫在2021年11月的反赛中以4比0击败了弗尔斯。事实上，两家俱乐部之间还没有一场比赛能让格鲁瑟保持不败。

当然，这只是历史，但这也表明了两家俱乐部在不同背景下的实力差异。

格拉德巴赫已经通过一些积极的结果爬出了降级的水域。他们的足球水平仍然没有达到他们经理所期望的水平。他们只差一点点就会在上周主场输给美因茨，在被打断的客场2:0的比赛中，他们也不比波鸿好多少。

尽管如此，有两个主要的理由让我认为格拉德巴赫会带着最大的分数回家——弗尔斯的连续0:0战果非常幸运，这意味着他们已经错过了一些失球和一场失败(只是因为统计上的原因);第二个是格拉德巴赫明星攻击三人组Plea-Stindl-Embolo(图拉姆)在重新组合后重新拾起他们的比赛。

弗斯最终不得不开始冒险，除了在主场，还有什么地方能做得更好呢?方法的改变可能对他们起了危险的作用。希望在这里能进几个球，赢得一场客场比赛。

沃夫斯堡VS比勒费尔德

另一个在21/22赛季表现不佳的球队中被选中的是沃尔夫斯堡。看到他们的结果，人们自然会想要避免对他们下赌注。但每次跑步，无论好坏，最终都会有终点。在沃尔夫斯堡的情况下，他们实际上在比赛中做得比得分线显示的更好。

周中0:3负于奥格斯堡的比赛是不现实的，事实上比赛的大部分时间都是50比50，沃尔夫斯堡很不幸在上半场没有进球。

回头看看主场0:2输给勒沃库森的那场比赛，我们会看到同样的画面——水平相当的比赛，沃尔夫斯堡两次击中门框(!)，所有的统计数据(14对15的投篮，50%对50%的控球，7对7的角球等等)。

最重要的是，沃尔夫斯堡展现了良好的足球，他们在主场，他们受伤了，愤怒了，他们拥有一支比今天的对手阿米尼亚强三倍的球队。

在没有过多考虑客队的情况下，我认为沃尔夫斯堡的主场胜利可以打破颓势，最终让他们的进攻机会发挥作用。