Leipzig vs Atalanta

Leipzig from Germany host Italian Atalanta for this UEFA Europa League quarter finals battle at the fancy Red Bull Arena early Friday morning Beijing time. The stakes are ultra high as both teams have a genuine chance of winning this league! Atalanta's chances are quite slim in my opinion, though.. The winner earns a ticket to the Champions League next season..in-form Barcelona are of course the favorites to lift the trophy, but Leipzig are definitely the second favorites! Both teams, especially Atalanta, play very aggressive, offensive football. I expect a terrific entertainment from match to watch for football fans with many goals!

The German Bundesliga is the third best league in Europe after English Premiership and Spanish LaLiga and is definitely better on average than the Italian Serie A. Italy winning The EURO 2020 probably has some effect on Italian teams very regularly being over-valued in international competitions. AC Milan were very bad in The Champions League and did not qualify from the group phase, Juventus suffered a humiliating 0-3 loss to Villarreal at home a few weeks ago in in the same competition (play offs). Moreover, Inter, the reigning Italian Serie A champions, had no real chance against Liverpool in the Champions League  some weeks ago.We must realize that Atalanta are clearly worse than these teams!

Leipzig had a rocky start to the season and I went against them a few times during the early season but they have now played beautiful football for a few months already and have scored over 2 goals per match on average this season in the Bundesliga. Indeed, their goal difference is 61:31 – awesome numbers! They have not lost any of their latest 10 matches and have won 7 of these. The latest loss came against the totally dominant team in Germany, Bayern Munich, 2-3 away from home on the 5th of February. We must remember that Bayern are probably the 3rd best team in Europe after Manchester City and Liverpool. Even so, Leipzig fought very well in this match recording 2.71 in expected goals – Bayern’s number was 2.93. I would say Bayern deserved the narrow win but a draw perhaps would not have unjustified either! Indeed, Leipzig are 64% favorites to win so my increasing fan-base and I have a very good chance to increase the 9/10 latest picks won!

Leipzig currently occupy the fifth place in the Bundesliga standings with 48 points but I rate them as the 3rd best team in this league in my power ratings that illustrate the teams raw class. Bayer Leverkusen have 51 points, but I expect Leipzig to topple them during the spring. Leipzig are very close to the level of Dormund, rated 2nd, in my opinion. They in fact humiliated the very Dortmund at their stadium winning 4-1 in front of over very loud 81 000 fans! An excellent result! Visitors do not often win at Dortmund's Signal Iduna Park! The expected goals statistic is this match was 0.81 for Dormund and 1.43 for Leipzig. In addition, Leipzig have been unlucky in terms of expected points and would have deserved at least 4 more points! The top-4 teams in Bundesliga qualify for the Champions League for next season and as Leipzig have not secured a top-4 place yet the motivation to try to win The Europa League must be huge. Their talented, young team would love taking this trophy! Leipzig are better than Atalanta in every are of the game, especially defensively. The hosts are also a much bigger club than the visitors by players’ total market value. The total market value reflects the true class of a club pretty well as the football (player) market is a global one. On average a player’s market value illustrates his level on the pitch well! Younger, promising players, of course, have a higher market value than older ones if the players when the players are at the same level. Say Cristiano Ronaldo is not nearly valuable as in terms of market value – despite his great form at old age - as Borussia Dortmund’s Norwegian super forward Erling Haland, 21. According to a respected and pretty famous German website Transfermarkt.com Leipzig's squad is valued at at whopping 465.60 million euros but I would say 510 million would be a more accurate number! At least 5 players are under-valued.. Especially Croatian centre-back Josko Gvardiol,20,is undoubtedly worth more than the listed 30 million! Goals are expected once again from Portuguese centre-forward Andre Silva, 26 who is also heavily under-valued. I recommend my fans to follow him very closely.The visitor’s squad is valued at 384.90 million but this amount is at least 60 million too high. Many over-valued players in their squad! Colombian Duvan Zapata, 31, is definitely not worth 30 million..

Atalanta are having a somewhat disappointing season in the Seria A and are currently in the 7th position in the standings. They were a lot better two years ago when they almost beat PSG in the Champions League play offs, but we must understand that they have declined severely. Perhaps the betting market and media still remember that fine run back in 2020.. Their defense is too shaky for this level and will probably not be able to handle the pressure from Leipzig! Moreover, they have been a little lucky in the Serie A scoring 2 more goals than they should have in terms of expected goals and grabbing 3 more points then they should have in terms of expected points. I suspect that they will probably not make it to top-6. In their most recent match Napoli, at home, Napoli humiliated them winning 3-1. An awful match from Atalanta in terms of defensive structure and attitude! Atalanta simply can not play defensively solid football and it will probably cost them here.