I “slept” on this bet for a few nights and now it does seem like a worthy shot, all things considered.

We will start with Sochi here who have been playing below their standards in 2022. And while, at first, results were not suggesting that (the team beat Arsenal Tula and Rostov) then came the 0-0 against relegation zone Khimki and the 2-3 blockbuster loss to mid-table side Krylya Sovetov.

If you view every game individually - only the 2nd half performance against Arsenal Tula was decent. In every other match the team was mainly suffering on the pitch. What’s worse, their backline started giving away easy chances and leaking goals, 3 conceded goals from Krylya Sovetov is a major red flag, in my opinion.

There are a couple of valid points explaining the dip in results and performances - first would be the continuous fitness issues of their leading center-mid Noboa. Time is getting the better of the 36 year old Colombian and he’s been limited to short cameos. He played just two games, vs. Rostov and CSKA in the Cup, missing 3 others.

There is a chance he does start tonight, but it’s naive to expect an instant impact after he had missed a number of games with muscle troubles.

The 2nd argument to justify Sochi’s poor shape is the condition of their leading striker Cassierra. Before the season went on winter break the Colombian center-forward had recorded 8 goals and 3 assists; upon return to action in 2022 - he’s been a shadow of himself, missing easy chances and eventually getting just an odd assist to this day (against Arsenal Tula).

Tonight Sochi will miss one of their leading defenders Terekhov through suspension.

Zenit is one of the few clubs not to lose a single player from their squad to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The current roster is determined to finish the job and take gold medals, only then switching to the future of their careers. There is no need to say that Zenit is similar to Bayern in Germany – such is the quality gap between them and the rest of the league. Even more so now that most of their competitors saw leading players leave. They stumbled only once in 2022 so far - recording a colourless draw away vs. Krylya (1-1), however elsewhere the team’s been crushing it offensively scoring a minimum of 2 goals in each match.

I believe Zenit's determination to finish first and keep distance from Dinamo together with Sochi’s poor form should see them winning this game. The odds are more than generous.

现在考虑到所有因素，这似乎是一个值得一试的机会。

我们将从这里的索契开始分析，他们在 2022 年的表现一直低于他们的真实水平。虽然起初结果并不表明（球队击败图拉兵工厂和罗斯托夫），然后是 0-0 对阵降级区末希姆基和 2- 3 重磅输给中游球队 Krylya Sovetov。

如果您单独查看每场比赛 - 只有下半场对阵图拉兵工厂的表现还不错。在其他每场比赛中，球队主要是在球场上防守。更糟糕的是，他们的后防线开始松懈，给对手机会，在我看来，上一场比赛 3 个失球是一个重要的危险信号。

有几个观点可以解释结果和表现的下降——首先是他们中锋 Noboa 的持续健康问题。这位 36 岁的哥伦比亚被限制在短暂的出场时间中。他最近只踢了两场比赛，杯赛对阵罗斯托夫和中央陆军都缺席。

今晚他有机会首发，但在因肌肉问题缺席了多场比赛后，很难指望他立刻产生影响。

证明索契糟糕状态的第二个论据是他们的头号前锋卡西拉的状态。在本赛季进入冬歇期之前，这位哥伦比亚中锋已经打进了 8 球和 3 次助攻；在 2022 年重返赛场后——他一直状态不佳，错过了轻松的机会，最终只获得了一次助攻（对阵阿森纳图拉队）。

今晚索契将因停赛而错过他们的一名领先后卫捷列霍夫。

泽尼特是为数不多的在俄乌危机中没有失去一名球员的俱乐部之一。目前的名单决心能够拿到联赛冠军。泽尼特和德国的拜仁有相似之处——他们与其他球队之间的实力差距很大。现在更是如此，因为他们的大多数竞争对手都有球员离开了。到目前为止，他们在 2022 年只丢分了一次——客场战平克雷利亚（1-1），但在其他比赛，球队在每场比赛中至少打进 2 球。

我相信泽尼特能够赢下比赛，索契糟糕的状态应该会让他们赢得这场比赛。几率非常大。