Syria vs Iraq

Syria host Iraq for World Cup Asia qualification third stage round 10 at Al Rashid Stadium in Dubai, in the United Arab Emrates, late Tuesday evening Beijing time. The match cannot be played in Syria because of the unstable situation in the country. This means that the home advantage is almost non-existent. Both Syrians and Iraqis live in Dubai, so both team are expected to get some support from their fans. The main rationale for the bet is that Iraq need win this match to keep their hopes of playing in Qatar later this year alive. It seems that the betting market has not given this fact enough emphasis. In these kind of situations where only one team has big motivation their chance can easily increase by even as much as 10%!

Iraq currently occupy the 4th place in the standings with 9 points. United Arab Emirates have just one point more, but a considerably better goal difference. Meaning a draw would be enough for Iraq to take the 4th position in the group - earning a ticket to next round of qualification – only if United Arab Emirates - were to lose to South Korea by at least 5 goals’ difference. South Korea, of course, are very good team and have already secured a ticket to the World Cup and will surely rotate their squad today. Even so, United Arab Emirates losing by at least 5 goals’ margin is extremely unlikely.

I expect the Iraqis to be very active, even aggressive here right from the start putting heavy pressure on the Syrians' vulnerable defense. Indeed, the hosts have allowed 15 goals in so far. They do have some offensive abilities though and have scored a respectable number of goals – 8. They are definitely not as good as iraq by raw class and are the rock-bottom team in this group. As a result of the group standings, the Syrians have nothing to play for here. I expect them to enjoy the match here, probably rotate their squad and not defend extra-hard. Indeed, some goals and decent entertainment is expected here! Syria are missing some important players, which of course increases Iraq’s chances! Syria won their latest match in Lebanon last week but were not the better team despite the lucky 3-0 win.. They just made the most of their scoring chances. Iraq played pretty well last week against United Arab Emirates in Saudi-Arabia winning 1-0 after a pretty balanced match. Iraq have 58% chance to win this match.

北京时间周二晚间，叙利亚在阿拉伯联合酋长国的迪拜拉希德体育场举办了亚洲世界杯资格赛第三阶段第 10 轮比赛的伊拉克。由于该国局势不稳定，这场比赛无法在叙利亚进行。这意味着主场优势几乎不存在。叙利亚人和伊拉克人都住在迪拜，因此两支球队都有望得到球迷的支持。打赌的主要理由是伊拉克需要赢得这场比赛才能保持他们今年晚些时候在卡塔尔踢球的希望。博彩市场似乎没有对这一事实给予足够的重视。在这种只有一个团队有很大动力的情况下，他们的机会可以轻松增加甚至高达 10%！

伊拉克目前以9分排在积分榜第4位。阿拉伯联合酋长国只多得一分，但净胜球要好得多。这意味着平局足以让伊拉克在小组中获得第四名 - 获得下一个门票一轮资格赛 - 只有在阿拉伯联合酋长国 - 以至少 5 球的差距输给韩国时。当然，韩国队是一支非常优秀的球队，已经拿到了世界杯的门票，今天肯定会轮换阵容。即便如此，阿拉伯联合酋长国以至少 5 球的优势输球的可能性极小。

我预计伊拉克会非常活跃，甚至从一开始就主队加强逼抢，对叙利亚人脆弱的防御施加巨大压力。事实上，到目前为止，东道主已经允许了 15 个进球。不过他们确实有一些进攻能力，并且打进了可观的进球数——8个。他们绝对不如伊拉克，而且在这个组中是垫底的球队。由于小组积分榜，叙利亚人在这里没有什么可玩的。我希望他们能在这里享受比赛，可能会轮换阵容，而不是过度防守。确实，这里预计会有一些目标和体面的娱乐活动！叙利亚缺少一些重要的球员，这当然增加了伊拉克的机会！叙利亚上周在黎巴嫩赢得了他们最近的一场比赛，但尽管幸运地以 3-0 获胜，但他们并不是更好的球队。他们只是充分利用了他们的得分机会。伊拉克上周在沙特阿拉伯对阵阿拉伯联合酋长国的比赛中表现相当出色，经过一场相当平衡的比赛后以 1-0 获胜。伊拉克有58%的机会赢得这场比赛。