Leipzig host Frankfurt for this German Bundesliga round 27 clash at Red Bull Arena Sunday evening Beijing time. The German Bundesliga is the third best league in Europe after English Premiership and Spanish LaLiga and offers great entertainment for football fans with more goals on average than in many other top leagues. The goal expectancy here is even higher than average mainly because of the aggressive, offensive football Leipzig almost always play. They had a rocky start to the season and I went against them a few times during the early season but they have now played beautiful football for a few months already and have scored over 2 goals per match on average this season. Indeed, their goal difference is 57:30 – good numbers. They have lost just one their latest 10 matches and even this loss was against the dominant team in Germany, Bayern Munich 2-3 away from home on the 5th of February. Let’s remember that Bayern are probably the 3rd best team in Europe after Manchester City and Liverpool. Leipzig fought very well in this match recording 2.71 in expected goals – Bayern’s number was 2.93. I would say Bayern deserved the narrow win but a draw perhaps would not have unjustified either.. Leipzig have won 7 of their latest matches and are definitely very clear favorites here! They currently occupy the fifth place in the standings with 44 points but I rate them as the 3rd best team in this league in my power ratings that illustrate the teams raw class. Both Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen have 45 points, but I expect Leipzig to topple them during the spring. Leipzig are very close to the level of Dormund, rated 2nd, in my opinion. In addition, Leipzig have been unlucky in terms of expected points and would have deserved at least 3 more points! The hunt for a top-4 position and a ticket to the Champions League for next season must motivate them hugely here!

Frankfurt are definitely not a bad team and are currently in the 10th position in the standings. They are safe from relegation and on the other hand have very slim chances to qualify for top-6. The 6th place would earn them a spot in the Conference League qualification in the summer. We must remember that they have been very lucky this season in terms of expected points and have earned 8 more points than they realistically should have and are over-rated by the betting market once again. They will probably not be able to keep their top-10 position during the rest of the season and I rate them only as the 13th best team in The Bundesliga. They did beat Bochum in their most recent Bundesliga match 2-1 at home but the match was pretty balanced and Frankfurt only recorded slightly more in expected goals. They would need to improve a lot to avoid defeat in today! We must also take into account that they played a grueling 120 mins match this Thursday in Europa League 1/8-finals and did eventually qualify over Spanish Real Betis. They must be somewhat fatigued from this battle both mentally and physically.. Leipzig, on the other hand, did not play on Thursday after all as Spartak Moscow from Russia were banned from playing by UEFA because of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. The extra rest surely benefits them here.. The visitors will be without three players here, whereas the hosts have no absences.