Genoa vs Torino

Genoa host Torino for this Italian Serie A round 30 clash at Stadio Luigi Ferraris early Saturday morning Beijing time. Genoa have played extremely defensive lately and quite amazingly six of their latest Serie A matches have been a draw! A very rare statistic indeed. The would definitely win as they are in fierce fight to avoid relegation. They currently have 19 points in the bank, and whilst their situation does not look good they still have a chance to topple Venezia, Cagliari and Sampdoria during the rest of the season. I expect them to be more motivated than Torino here. Most importantly though, they definitely has offensive quality for wins against mediocre teams like Torino. I am not saying they are a good team of course though. For a relatively small club they have pretty good home crowd that supports them even in not the best moments. Everyone understands that Genoa do not fight for top positions. We must also remember that Genoa have been extremely unlucky this season and would have deserved some 12 more points in terms of expected points and should have scored 8 more goals according to expected goals statistic.

The visitors are in place 11 place and do not really have a chance for a top6-position which would earn them a Conference League qualification for next season. However, they are also safe from relegation, so the motivation might not be 100% here.. Torino have not won any of their latest 7 matches in Serie A and can not in reality be the favorites here! They played okay against a top team Inter last Sunday though,  but overall I have not liked the way they have played.. Especially their attacking game needs a big improvement in terms of structure and creativity. I would say this is a 50/50 match, meaning that our bet Genoa +1goal with he 1x2 handicap option has a good chance of winning! A draw is certainly more probable than the betting market believes. Torino have pretty big injury issues ahead of this match. Mohamed Fares has a knee injury and 5 other players listed as absentees. Edera is questionable at the time of writing this. For the host Criscito is the only confirmed missing player.