Bochum vs Monchengladbach

Bochum host Monchengladbach for this German Bundesliga round 27 match at Vonovia Ruhrstadion early Saturday morning Beijing time. This league is the 3rd best league in Europe in my opinion and often offers great entertainment for football fans. The goal expectancy on average is higher than in other top leagues – The English Premiership, Spanish LaLiga or Italian Serie A. However, I expect this match is more low-scoring than the betting market or many football analysts believe. Bochum are suffering from a Covid19 outbreak in the team. Maxim Leitsch and Luis Hartwig are still suffering the aftereffects of the virus. Milos Pantovic and Robert Tesche have also recently tested positive. This of course is a negative team for the team and lowers their chances of winning. As a result of the absences, I expect their manager to take a more cautious, defensive approach to the match which increases the chance of a draw and the probability of a draw and my fans and myself winning the bet Bochum +1 with the 1x2 handicap option. However, I believe the market is giving to much emphasis on the absences. Bochum are a good team this season and have motivated and skilled replacements, so I do not expect their performance to drop significantly here.

Bochum played a pretty good match in their most recent away from home against Frankfurt, a relatively strong team. Frankfurt were close to 60% favorites to win according to the betting market and did take all three points with a 2.1 win, but Bochum fought well and the expected goals statistic was only 1.44-1.31 in the hosts' favor. Ball possession was almost 50-50% and Bochum even recorded more shots on target and more attacks. A draw would have been justified. The visitors, on the other hand beat Hertha Berlin at 2-0 at home in their most recent match but the match was closer than the final score indicates. Both teams recorded 12 shots on goal. Monchengladbach deserved the win though, but let’s remember Hertha are one of the worst teams in this league and the hosts were around 63% favorites to win. Bochum have grabbed 2 more points than Monchengladbach so far, 32. Both teams have won 2 of their latest Bundesliga matches.