I will take a number of arguments to serve as the foundation stones for this pick.

The 1st of them would be how the return fixture in Paris went between the two teams. PSG’s advantage was overwhelming. Aware of their weaknesses, Real Madrid came to Paris with 1 clear mission - to keep the 0-0 scoreline. 21-3 shots, 8-0 on target, 57% vs. 43% possession. Yes, the amount of big chances created by PSG was not as significant, but Real Madrid did spend the entire game, as they say in the box, “on the ropes”.

If one wants to understand what this PSG team is actually capable of with Messi, Neymar and Mbappe - they need to look at the performance vs. Madrid and not at those weird inconsistent displays in Ligue1, where Paris has no competition this season (+13 points lead at the top) and play against themselves from the boredomness.

The biggest speculation heading into the game on Wednesday has been Mbappe’s condition - will he play or not. The star striker looks more likely to feature than not, I’ve seen this too often before with him. The important thing - Mbappe is in Madrid and he should be there for a reason. The Frenchman, of course, made all the difference in Paris with his late goal for 1-0.

Another moment to consider as a positive for PSG, Neymar is in a better physical condition than he was in mid-February. Back then the Brazilian was only coming back from yet another injury. He will surely be an asset from first minutes in Madrid.

As for hosts, apart from the gloomy show in the first match, the argument against Ancellotti is the absence of suspended defensive midfielder Casemiro - a key figure for the team's backline. Toni Kroos is also in risk of missing the game, which would then leave Madrid with the 19 year old Camavinga and another backup option Valverde. Ferland Mendy’s suspension and Nacho Fernandes' anticipated start at LB is another issue. Mendy’s been on fire in recent games, while Fernandes is not a profile left fullback.

There was a lot of love for PSG as a bet in the 1st game - they went to as low as 1.65 for a win. If Mbappe starts, with these missings for Real Madrid and how superior Paris was in their 1-0 win 3 week ago - the +0.25 for 1.70sh and the 0 handicap for 2.00+ are great offers. I do not see PSG losing in Madrid.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

我将以一些论据作为这个选择的基石。

第一个问题是两队在巴黎的比赛如何进行。PSG的优势是压倒性的。意识到自己的弱点，皇家马德里带着一个明确的任务来到巴黎——保持0-0的比分。21-3投，8-0命中，57%对43%控球率。是的，巴黎圣日耳曼创造的机会并不多，但皇家马德里确实在整场比赛中，就像他们在禁区里说的那样，“在绳子上”。

如果想了解这个PSG团队实际上是与梅西的能力,内马尔和Mbappe——他们需要考虑性能和马德里而不是在Ligue1那些奇怪的不一致显示,巴黎没有竞争本赛季(+ 13分领先顶部)从boredomness和比赛本身。

关于周三比赛最大的猜测是姆巴佩的状况——他会不会上场。这位明星前锋看起来更有可能上场，我以前在他身上看到过太多这样的情况。重要的是，姆巴佩在马德里，他应该是有原因的。法国人，当然，在巴黎的比赛中，凭借他在最后时刻的进球使一切变得不同。

对于巴黎圣日耳曼来说，另一个积极的时刻是，内马尔的身体状况比2月中旬要好。当时，巴西人刚刚从又一次受伤中恢复过来。他肯定会在马德里的第一分钟就成为一种资产。

至于东道主，除了第一场令人沮丧的表现，对安切洛蒂的争论是由于后防线的关键人物卡塞米罗的缺席。托尼·克罗斯也有可能错过这场比赛，这样皇马就只能留下19岁的卡马文加和另一个替补球员瓦尔韦德了。弗兰门迪的停赛和纳乔费尔南德斯在路易斯安那州立大学的首发是另一个问题。曼迪在最近的几场比赛中表现出色，而费尔南德斯并不是左后卫。

在第一场比赛中，人们对巴黎圣日耳曼的喜爱之情溢于话——他们的胜率低至1.65。如果姆巴佩首发，考虑到皇马的这些失误，以及巴黎在3周前1-0取胜时的表现，1.70秒的+0.25和2.00+的0差点都是很好的报价。我认为巴黎圣日耳曼不会在马德里输球。