AC Milan are 10 points ahead of Atalanta in the actual table, but the xG-data suggests that Atalanta should be a couple of points ahead! In a bigger picture the top-6 teams in Serie A have so far given almost identical performances, AC Milan have been the luckiest of them all, but now the injuries must have a big effect.

There is almost 0 home advantage at San Siro as there is no public, and Atalanta have also used the stadion as their home in European games.

The perfomance level of AC Milan has been steady and high despite a huge number of injuries, or has it? Let us take a look:

AC米兰在实际积分榜上领先亚特兰大10分，但预期数据显示亚特兰大应该领先几分!从更大的角度来看，到目前为止，意甲排名前六的球队几乎都有相同的表现，AC米兰是他们中最幸运的，但现在伤病肯定有很大的影响。

在圣西罗，由于没有公众的关注，他们主场优势几乎为0，亚特兰大在欧洲比赛中也把主场作为主场。

AC米兰的表现水平一直稳定而高，尽管有大量的伤病，是吗?让我们一起来看看:

Last 7 AC Milan results and xG

They have also been lucky to face the bottom teams recently as the squad has been ridden with about 10 injuries, and last time vs Cagliari the only difference between the teams was Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Otherwise the performance was more like a relegation candidate.

AC Milan miss today: Romagnoli, Saelemaekers, Gabbia, Rebic, Krunic, Bennacer, Calhanoglu, Hernandez, Kjaer

That is a lot of defensive strenght and most of the midfield gone, and the bench is practically empty.

Atalanta were in excellent form before the games vs bottom-half teams Genoa and Udinese, where they settled to two draws.

他们也很幸运最近面对了排名垫底的球队，因为他们的阵容有10人受伤，而上一次对卡利亚里的比赛两队唯一的区别就是伊布。除此之外，他的表现更像是一个降级候选者。

他们的防守很强大，大部分中场球员因伤缺席，替补几乎空无一人。

亚特兰大在对阵下半时的热那亚和乌迪内斯之前状态很好，两队打成两平。

As the xG-numbers show they still should had won both games, although the match vs Udinese was a horrible game itself and very poor PR for Serie A. It almost looked like Atalanta did not even try to score, and all in all it was aggressive and disgusting time-wasting game from Udinese's side. It was a rescheduled game, and as Atalanta see their main opponent this week AC Milan there was some kind of let go feeling which is not going to be repeated on Saturday.

The AC Milan team is now so much weakened that there is not really any point to compare their best performances for this one as it is practically a different team, and the only thing that speak for their favour is that they did not play midweek. Last times these two have met AC Milan have won once, Atalanta have thrashed Milan 5-0 and 0-2 and there is no reason why it would happen again.

The only likely absentee at Atalanta is Pasalic, not a key figure at all. Zapata, Ilicic, Gosens and Freuler played only little vs Udinese at least those are fully fresh.

尽管对乌迪内斯的比赛本身就是一场糟糕的比赛，而且在意甲的PR表现也很糟糕，但是从数据上看他们仍然应该赢下这两场比赛。亚特兰大看起来甚至都没有进球，总的来说，这是一场乌迪内斯的侵略性和令人厌恶的浪费时间的比赛。这是一场重新安排的比赛，当亚特兰大看到他们本周的主要对手AC米兰时，他们有种放手的感觉，这种感觉不会在周六重演。

现在AC米兰队的实力非常弱，根本没有必要拿他们的最佳表现与这支球队相比，因为这支球队实际上是一支不同的球队。这两场比赛，AC米兰赢过一次，亚特兰大5-0和0-2击败了米兰，没有理由再发生这样的事情。

唯一可能缺席亚特兰大的是帕萨利克，他根本不是一个关键人物。萨帕塔，伊利西奇，戈森和弗勒尔在对阵乌迪内斯的比赛中被提前换下，球员状态良好。

What if I say 1-4? Agree?

看好亚特兰大