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英国亚马逊员工,常年现场看各级别联赛,非常熟悉球队,有十多年经验盈利丰厚。
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My bet for the big Derby of Lombardia 伦巴第德比

2021-01-23

比赛分析

意甲

已完赛

星期日2021-01-24 01:00

解读理由

In my opinion Milan have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Milan currently have good H2H against Atalanta as they went unbeaten in 8 of last 11 matches against them. Milan lost only one of last 5 home matches against Atalanta.

Milan line up for today's match up looks good. Two great information - top class left defender Hernandez (4 goals and 3 assists in 15 matches, he received player of the month award) is available for today's game, same as two key wingers Rebic (1 goal and 3 assists in 11 matches) and Leao (5 goals and 4 assists in 13 matches). Milan offensive power looks superb. Manager Stefano Pioli have a lot of options upfront. All team is relatively fresh because last match they played 5 days ago and before that game as well they had 6 days off. Milan obviously flying high at the moment - they lost only one match in current season. They lost at home against Juventus, but Milan squad was depleted in that match. Milan won last two Serie A matches 2:0 (at home against Torino and on away against Cagliari). Offensive power is veru potent - Milan scored more than one goal in 17 of 18 matches in current season (1 goal against Juventus). Ibrahimovic (12 goals in 8 matches) back in in last match against Cagliari and scored 2 goals (should even more). With him on the pitch Milan confidence is on the another level. He is team leader and he should be able to make difference today. They should be able to score today without too big problems.

Especially against Atalanta defense - Atalanta conceded at least one goal in 14 of 18 Serie A matches so far. Atalanta is not in better form than Milan - they coming for today's match after two disappointing drawd against team from bottom-six of the table. 0:0 at home against Genoa and 1:1 on away against Udinese. Atalanta line up looks good as well, but they played 3 matches in last 9 days. Freshness for sure is on the Milan side. For me is very hard to see Atalanta as a favorite here - they won only 50% of Serie A matches so far (9/18). Atalanta today will play with offensive trio Pessina/Zapata/Ilicic, but they are not in top form at the moment. Pessina have 1 goal and 1 assist in 11 Serie A matches. Zapata is without goal or assist in last two matches. Ilicic is without goal or assist in last three matches. Milan defense is not easy to break - they kept clean sheet 7 times in 18 matches (the highest number in league). Milan goalkeeper Donnarumma is in top form, he saved 73.8% of shots so far. For sure Atalanta will have troubles to break him.

Milan didn't lost in 8 of 9 home matches so far. They scored 20 goals (expected goals scored: 20.70). They conceded 12 goals, but they should concede less ( expected goals conceded: 10.73). Atalanta won less than 50% of away matches so far (4/9). They scored 19 goals, but they should score less (expected goals scored: 17.01).

For me these odds are wrong, Milan should be favorite today.

在我看来,米兰有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少得一分。

米兰目前在对阵亚特兰大的比赛中表现不错,他们在过去11场比赛中有8场保持不败。米兰在最近5场主场对阵亚特兰大的比赛中只输了一场。

米兰今天的比赛阵容看起来不错。两大信息——顶级左边后卫埃尔南德斯(4目标和3次助攻15场比赛中,他获得球员奖项)是用于今天的游戏,一样两个关键边锋Rebic(1目标和3次助攻11匹配)和雷奥(在13场比赛5目标和4助攻)。米兰的进攻力量看起来很棒。主教练皮奥里在前面有很多选择。所有的球队都是相对新鲜的,因为上一场比赛他们是在5天前踢的,而在那场比赛之前他们有6天的休息时间。显然米兰现在正飞得很高——他们在本赛季只输了一场比赛。他们在主场输给了尤文图斯,但是米兰的阵容在那场比赛中消耗殆尽。米兰在最近的两场意甲比赛中都以2:0获胜(主场对阵都灵,客场对阵卡利亚里)。进攻力量非常强大——米兰在本赛季的18场比赛中有17场进了一个以上的球(对尤文图斯1球)。伊布拉希莫维奇(8场12球)在上一场对阵卡利亚里的比赛中打进2球(应该更多)。有了他在场上的表现,米兰的信心上升到了另一个水平。他是团队的领导者,他应该能够在今天做出改变。他们今天应该可以在没有太大问题的情况下得分。

特别是对亚特兰大的防守——亚特兰大在目前18场意甲比赛中有14场至少丢了一个球。亚特兰大的状态并不比米兰好,他们在两场令人失望的平局之后来到了今天的比赛。主场0:0对阵热那亚,客场1:1对阵乌迪内斯。亚特兰大的阵容看起来也不错,但是他们在过去9天打了3场比赛。米兰方面的新鲜感是肯定的。对我来说,亚特兰大很难成为最受欢迎的球队——到目前为止,他们只赢了50%的意甲比赛(9/18)。亚特兰大今天将有佩西纳、萨帕塔和伊利奇三名进攻型球员上场,但他们现在还没有达到最佳状态。佩西纳在11场意甲比赛中有1个进球和1次助攻。萨帕塔在最近两场比赛中没有进球,也没有助攻。在过去的三场比赛中,他没有进球,也没有助攻。米兰的防守不容易打破——他们在18场比赛中有7场没有失球(这是联赛中最高的纪录)。米兰门将多纳鲁玛状态极佳,迄今为止他扑救了73.8%的射门。亚特兰大肯定会有麻烦来击垮他的。

到目前为止,米兰在9场主场比赛中没有输掉8场。他们进了20个球(预期进球:20.70)。他们丢了12个球,但他们应该丢的少一些(预计丢球数:10.73)。亚特兰大到目前为止赢得的客场比赛不到50%(4/9)。他们进了19个球,但他们应该进得少一点(预期进球:17.01)。

对我来说,这种可能性是错误的,米兰应该是今天的宠儿。

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