Gimnasia La Plata vs Argentinos Juniors

Gimnasia La Plata welcome Rosario Central for this Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo for this round 5 clash early Friday morning Beijing time. A pretty even and typically for this league - and many other Latin American football leagues - a pretty low-scoring match is on the cards. Once again, I see a lower goal expectancy for match than the betting market and the chance of a draw, pretty probably 0-0 or 1-1 is pretty high - about 32 % here. Neither team have been at their best so far, especially in terms of offensive structure, but this is pretty normal early season. Even though Copa de la Liga Profesional is a surprisingly low-level league as a whole by world standards, Argentina is an amazing football country! All the biggest clubs on the planet have their scouts watching Argentinian (and other South American) youngsters and every year a long list of players leave Argentina to play in the most competitive leagues in Europe – like the English Premiership and especially Spanish La Liga. The differences in class and financial resources between teams are quote clear in this league. For example Boca Juniors are a legendary team even at the global stage, and the iconic player Diego Maradona signed a contract with them back in 1981 at the age of 15 at the but who has even heard of Talleres Cordoba…

Neither of the two teams are a big or small team in this league per se, but I see the visitors as the better team in all areas of the game, defense, midfield and offense... According to the respected and nowadays well-known by many football fans website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts’ players have a total market value of some 16.60 million euros. The visitors’ players are valued at almost 25 million euros. I estimate that the hosts’ team have at least three over-valued players, Brahian Aleman, 32, valued at 1 million euros being the best example. Of the younger players central midfielder Matias Miranda, valued at 450 000 euros, is surely over-valued too! The real total value of Gimnasia La Plata’s players is in my opinion only 12.5 million euros. Argentinos Juniors, on the other hand, have at least 5 under-valued players and the fair value of the team’s players exceeds 30 million euros in my opinion! I have watched all the matches from both teams this season, and have not seen anything to make me question the pre-season analysis that the visitors are without a doubt the better team by raw class by a pretty big margin. Yes, the home advantage is there – and the hosts do have pretty good fans but the visitors are still slim favorites here!

Gimnasia La Plata have lost two of their latest matches. Last week it was a 2-3 loss against Defensa Y Justicia and before this it was a humiliating 0-4 loss against Banfield. They did play better than the 0-4 reflects but still had major problems in defense and their coach Nestor Gorosito looked very frustrated indeed towards the end of both matches. He will surely work on his team’s defense and at least try to atleast avoid defeat today. Argentinos Juniors have played well indeed and have won two matches so far and have suffered just one defeat. In their most recent match, they played a 1-1 draw agaiinst San Lorenzo but controlled the match and would have deserved a win. The visitors +0.5 goals handicap is an excellent choice here for my fans and myself to extend the winning streak!

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北京时间周五凌晨，拉普拉塔欢迎罗萨里奥·中央参加在胡安·卡梅罗·泽里洛球场举行的第5轮阿根廷西甲联赛。对于这个联赛和其他许多拉丁美洲足球联赛来说，这是一场相当公平和典型的比赛，一场相当低得分的比赛是有可能的。再一次，我看到了比博彩市场更低的进球预期，平局的概率，很可能是0-0或1-1，非常高——大约32%。到目前为止，这两支球队都没有处于最佳状态，特别是在进攻结构方面，但这是非常正常的赛季初期。尽管西甲联赛是一个令人惊讶的低水平联赛，作为一个整体的世界标准，阿根廷是一个令人惊叹的足球国家!世界上所有最大的俱乐部都有他们的球探关注阿根廷(和其他南美)的年轻人，每年都有一长串的球员离开阿根廷去欧洲最有竞争力的联赛踢球——比如英超，特别是西甲。在这个联盟中，球队之间在等级和财政资源上的差异是显而易见的。例如，博卡青年队是一支即使在国际舞台上也具有传奇色彩的球队，著名球员迭戈·马拉多纳早在1981年就与博卡青年队签下了合同，当时他只有15岁。

这两支球队在这个联赛本身都不是大或小的球队，但我认为客队在比赛的各个方面都是更好的球队，防守，中场和进攻……根据备受尊敬、如今为许多球迷所熟知的网站Transfermarkt.com，东道主球员的总市值约为1660万欧元。客队球员价值近2500万欧元。我估计东道主球队至少有三名球员估值过高，32岁的阿莱曼(Brahian Aleman)就是最好的例子，身价100万欧元。年轻的中场球员Matias Miranda，价值45万欧元，当然也被高估了!在我看来，拉普拉塔球员的真正总价值只有1250万欧元。另一方面，阿根廷青年队至少有5名球员的价值被低估，而我认为球队球员的合理价值超过3000万欧元!我看了这赛季两支球队的所有比赛，没有看到任何让我质疑季前赛分析的东西，即客队毫无疑问是一支在原始级别上有相当大的优势的球队。是的，主场优势在那里——东道主确实有相当不错的球迷，但客队在这里仍然是最受欢迎的!

拉普拉塔最近输掉了两场比赛。上个星期，我们以2-3输给了正义队，而在此之前，我们以4 - 0输给了班菲尔德。他们的表现确实比0-4的反攻要好，但防守仍然存在重大问题，两场比赛结束时，他们的教练看起来非常沮丧。他肯定会加强球队的防守，至少会努力避免今天的失利。阿根廷青年队确实踢得很好，到目前为止赢了两场比赛，只输了一场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们1-1战平了圣洛伦佐，但控制了比赛，本应获胜。客队+0.5球的障碍是一个很好的选择，我的球迷和我自己延长连胜!