In my opinion Paderborn have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up. I don't see Holstein Kiel as so big favorite here.

Paderborn on away is extremely solid team - they didn't lost in 10 of 11 away matches in current season. Any other team in whole league have less losses on away than Paderborn. I believe they have all required tools to continue that hot streak today .

They are better team than Holstein Kiel, no doubt about that for me. They are much more creative - only 4 teams in whole league create more big chances than Paderborn, on the other hand only 4 teams in whole league created less big chances than Holstein. Also they are much more solid at the back - only 3 teams in whole league conceded more goals than Holstein. In last 3 consecutive matches Holstein had expected goals conceded number above 1.50. Paderborn scored 3 goals in last round so they should have problems to break hosts unstable defensive formation.

Holstein have huge squad problems before today's match and this is the main reason of my bet. For sure they are without three important defenders Neumann, Kirkeskov & Benger and two important midfielders Sterner and Wahl. In addition to that defender Komenda (played last round), key midfielders Bartels & Mees and key striker Porath are very doubtful before today's game. It's a huge blow and should have very bad impact on their performance today.

In those circumstances I see very good value on away side.

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在我看来，帕德博恩在今天的比赛中有很好的机会至少得一分。我不认为荷斯坦·基尔是这里的大热门。

帕德博恩是一支非常稳固的球队，他们在本赛季的11场客场比赛中没有输掉10场。全联盟中任何一支球队在客场的损失都比帕德博恩少。我相信他们已经拥有了所有需要的工具来继续今天的连胜。

他们是比荷斯坦基尔更好的球队，对我来说毫无疑问。他们更有创造力——全联盟只有4支球队比帕德博恩创造了更多的机会，另一方面全联盟只有4支球队创造的机会比荷斯坦少。他们的后防线也很稳固——全联盟只有3支球队比荷斯坦队丢的球多。在最近的三场比赛中，荷斯坦预计失球数会超过1.50。帕德博恩在上一轮打进了3个球，所以他们要打破主队不稳定的防守阵型应该会有问题。

在今天的比赛之前，荷斯坦有很大的阵容问题，这是我打赌的主要原因。可以肯定的是，他们缺少三个重要的后卫，诺伊曼，柯克斯科夫和本格尔以及两个重要的中场球员斯特纳和沃尔。除了后卫科曼达(上一轮出场)，关键中场巴特尔斯和米斯以及关键前锋波拉斯在今天的比赛前都很有疑问。这是一个巨大的打击，应该会对他们今天的表现产生非常坏的影响。

在这种情况下，我在客场看到了非常好的价值。