Racing Genk vs Kortjik

Genk host Kortrijk for this Belgian Jupiler Pro League round 29 clash at Cegeka Arena in Genk late Sunday evening Beijing time. Genk currently occupy 8th place with 41 points and the visitors have 4 points less in the bank and are in 11th place in this surprisingly competitive league. Of course the level of Jupiler Pro League is nowhere near the level of English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, German Bundesliga or Italian Serie A but it is close to the level of Dutch Eredivisie in my opinion when comparing the average. There are many talented young players in the league that probably have a future in bigger teams. Most teams play pretty open, offensive football but Kortjirk is not one of these teams, especially away from home against a better team like Genk. The visitors will surely go into the match with pretty cautious match plan and Genk will surely pressurize them hard in front of their fans. However, I still see them having clearly over 60% chance of not losing by more than one goal’s difference. Hence the my fans’ and my bet Kortrijk +1.5 goals handicap is a solid bet here. The visitor’s goal difference is 37:34. The number of goals allowed is quite small indeed! For example, for example the biggest club in this league, Club Brugge have allowed just one goal less than Kortrijk. Let’s remember Club Brugge even played a draw with PSG in the Champions league last autumn. I see the match as definitely more high-scoring than an average football match in a good European leagues, but still as more low-scoring than the betting market in general and most football analysts online..

There is no doubt about the fact that Genk are the better team here by raw class and I and rate them in the 7th place, better than Charleroi with 46 points, in my power ratings that illustrate the team’s overall class. However, I also rate Kortrijk as better than St. Truiden, who are currently one place above them in the standings. Genk are having a very disappointing season for a club if their caliber and the betting market over-values them here – probably mainly because of success in the past.. Their players total market value is 113 million euros according to Transfermarkt.com whilst the visitors’ players are valued at 26 million. However, in my opinion Genk’s players fair market value is only about 80 million and Genk’s around 35 million. For example Selemani, 3 million and Reynolds, 4 million seem to be under-valued..

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周日晚些时候，Genk在Genk的Cegeka Arena主场迎战比利时朱皮勒职业联赛第29轮比赛。Genk目前以41分排名第八，而客队在银行中少了4分，在这个竞争异常激烈的联赛中排名第11位。当然，朱皮勒职业联赛的水平远不及英超、西甲、德甲或意甲，但在我看来，如果比较平均水平，它已经接近荷兰甲级联赛的水平。联盟中有许多有天赋的年轻球员，他们很可能在更大的球队中有未来。大多数球队踢的都是开放式、进攻性的足球，但科特希尔克不是这样的球队，尤其是在客场对阵Genk这样的强队时。客队肯定会带着非常谨慎的比赛计划进入比赛，Genk肯定会在他们的球迷面前给他们施加很大压力。然而，我仍然认为他们有超过60%的机会不输掉超过一个进球的差距。因此，我的球迷和我的打赌，Kortrijk +1.5球差点是一个坚实的赌注。客队的净胜球差是37:34。允许的进球数量确实很少!举个例子，联赛中最大的俱乐部布鲁日只比科特赖克少丢了一个球。让我们记住布鲁日俱乐部甚至在去年秋天的欧冠联赛中与巴黎圣日耳曼打了一场平局。在我看来，这场比赛无疑比欧洲联赛中的一场普通足球比赛得分更高，但仍比博彩市场和大多数在线足球分析师的得分更低。

毫无疑问，Genk是这里的一支更优秀的队伍，我把他们评为第7名，比Charleroi的46分还要好，在我的能力评级中，这说明了这支队伍的整体级别。然而，我也认为Kortrijk比St. Truiden更好，St. Truiden目前在排名上比他们高一个位置。如果他们的水平和博彩市场高估了他们，那么Genk这个赛季对于一家俱乐部来说是非常令人失望的——可能主要是因为他们过去的成功。根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，他们的球员总市值为1.13亿欧元，而客队球员的市值为2600万欧元。然而，在我看来，Genk的玩家公平市场价值只有8000万，而Genk大约是3500万。例如Selemani, 300万和Reynolds, 400万似乎被低估了。