In my opinion Brighton have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

In previous season Brighton lost at Old Trafford 1:2 by very late goal. Today I see better chances for them to avoid loss because they are simply much better team in comparison to the previous season. I can't say the same things about Manchester United.

Currently Unitet are on 5th place, Brighton is 9th, but according to the expected goals scored/conceded models Brighton should be on 6th place, United two positions below them.

United scored 38 goals so far (39.1 expected goals scored), but is hard to trust them upfront at the moment - in 12 matches with Rangnick on the bench only three times they scored more than one goal. Greenwood is suspended by club and this is big blow for offensive formation because he was third-best player according to the ratings and he had 5 goals and 1 assist in current season. In addition to that Cristiano Ronaldo is still without a goal in 2022.. On the other hand Brighton at the moment looks very good upfront - they scored at least one goal in last 9 consecutive matches. Neal Maupay finally started to look like real deal. He scored already 8 goals and his confidence should be sky high after superb goal against Watford at the weekend.

Brighton is not easy to break, they didn't lost in 7 Premier League matches in a row. Defensive formation have good consistency and stability. According to the expected goals conceded model only City/Liverpool and Chelsea plays better at the back than Brighton. It's big difference in comparison to the United defensive formation. According to the models United should concede 37.8 goals in current season (Brighton conceded only 23..). Only 6 teams in whole league looks worse than United in this department. In 12 matches with Rangnick on the bench United kept clean sheet only 3 times. Team captain and key central defender Harry Maguire looks very poor for a while, he will have problems to stop Maupay today.

On top of that Brighton in current season is better team played with the ball than United as they have more accurate passes per game and higher average ball possession (56.3% against 53.9%) United is still without Fred who very well in current season - second -best team player according to the ratings. It's a big blow for United middle zone.

In current season Brighton played 4 matches against top3 teams and lost only once - against Man City. They are super solid on away - they didn't lost in 11 of 12 away matches so far. United won only 50% of Premier League matches at Old Trafford..

Brighton looks much better at the back, they have enough quality to control middle zone and they are coming here fearless and with much bigger confidence. Brighton have all required tools to avoid loss in today's match up.

在我看来，布莱顿有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少取得一分。

上个赛季，布莱顿在老特拉福德球场以 1:2 的比分输给了曼联，曼联很晚才锁定胜局。今天我认为他们有更好的机会避免失利，因为与上赛季相比，他们是一支更好的球队。

目前曼联排在第 5 位，布莱顿排在第 9 位，但根据预期的进球/失球模型，布莱顿应该排在第 6 位，曼联比他们低两个位置。

到目前为止，曼联打进了 38 个进球（预期进球数为 39.1 个），但目前很难相信他们能维持领先优势——在朗尼克坐在替补席上的 12 场比赛中，他们只有 3 场进球超过一球。格林伍德被俱乐部停赛，这对曼联来说是一个很大的打击，因为根据收视率，他是曼联第三好的球员，本赛季他有5个进球和1次助攻。除此之外，克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多在 2022 年仍然没有进球……另一方面此刻的布莱顿在前场看起来非常出色——他们在过去的 9 场比赛中至少打进了 1 球。尼尔莫佩终于开始看起来找到了状态。他已经打进了 8 个进球，在周末对阵沃特福德的精彩进球后，他的信心应该很高。

布莱顿并不容易被击败，他们连续7场英超联赛都没有输球。防守具有良好的一致性和稳定性。根据预期失球模型，只有曼城/利物浦和切尔西在后防线上的表现要好于布莱顿。与曼联的防守阵型相比，这是很大的不同。根据模型，曼联本赛季应该丢球 37.8 个（布莱顿只丢了 23 个……）。全联盟只有6支球队比曼联差。在朗尼克执教的12场比赛中，曼联只保持了3次零封。球队队长兼关键中卫哈里·马奎尔状态糟糕，今天他很难阻止莫派。

现在最重要的是，本赛季布莱顿的控球能力比曼联更好，因为他们每场比赛的传球准确率更高，平均控球率更高（56.3% 对 53.9%）

曼联仍然没有本赛季表现出色的弗雷德 - 根据收视率的最佳团队球员。这对曼联来说是一个很大的打击。 本赛季布莱顿与前三名球队交手4次，只输过一次——对阵曼城。他们在客场非常稳固——到目前为止，他们在 12 场客场比赛中有 11 场没有输球。曼联在老特拉福德只赢了 50% 的英超比赛。

布莱顿的后防线看起来好多了，他们有足够的实力控制中路，他们无所畏惧地来到这里，信心也更大。布莱顿完全有能力避免输球。