Defensa Y Justicia VS Velez Sarsfield

Defensa Y Justicia welcome Estudiantes La Plata for this Liga Profesional Apertura round 5 battle  at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello (Gobernador Julio A. Costa) Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the first tier of Argentinian football. The level of this league is high by global standards - and second-best in South America - after the very competitive Brazilian Serie A, of course. The Liga Profesional is a surprisingly low-scoring league on average. The goal expectancy is low here as well - and the probability of a draw is much higher than in top-level football on average. However, the bookmakers, too, have realised this. A match of pretty good quality by this league's standards is expected here! Most importantly us serious, profit-hungry bettors have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here! We have won an impressive 12 of the last 14 picks betting on the Liga Profesional. In the Clausura Group A regular season - which was completed in November last year - Defensa Y Justicia finished in 12th/15 place with 19 points to their account. However, I stress that this was only two points less than what needed to qualify for the Playoffs. They netted the ball only 14 times and conceded 19 goals. Indeed, their offense did definitely lack some offensive creativity, speed and at times also passing accuracy. I emphasize that the hosts' number of expected points (xPTS) and expected goals (xG) were bigger than 19 and 14. Most importantly in terms of estimating the probabilities in this match, they have potential for improvement! Velez Sarsfield finished in 4th place in the Clausura Group B with 26 points in their pocket. Their score difference was 19:12. They had some luck on their side in quite a few games. Rather interestingly four of the last five games between these two teams were draws. Only once were over 2.5 total goals scored.

Yes, Velez Sarsfield do top the Group A standings with 10 points. They have scored six goals and have allowed three. However, this is very misleading! Indeed, their number of expected xG per game is only 1.31. Moreover, their number of expected goals against (xGA) per match is 1.63. The hosts have started the campaign well! They are in 4th place with eight points in their pocket. Their goal difference is +2 - they have conceded only two goals but their number of xGA is bigger - but so is their number of xG. With the expected line-ups - taking the significant home advantage into account I have to disagree with the bookies who offer odds of only about 2.40 on the away win. Based on my sophisticated expert analysis this is a 50/50 match. We will take the Defensa Y Justicia +0.5 goals handicap option.

In their most recent match the hosts defeated Newell's Old Boys Boys 3-2 away from home. The visitors were priced around 4.00 by the bookies to win the game. Both teams recorded three big scoring chances. Before this Defensa Y Justicia beat Dep. Riestra 1-0 away from home. They were priced around 4.20 by the bookmakers to take all three points. The match was, as a whole, somewhat balanced. The visitors recorded one more shot on target - the hosts managed one more big scoring chance. Before this Defensa Y Justicia locked horns with Aldosivi on the road - as underdogs. No goals were scored in this very defensive game where neither team managed to record big scoring chances. On the ninth of last month Defensa Y Justicia beat a Brazilian team, Santa Cruz, 1-0 in a friendly. Indeed, they have not lost any of their last five games! Velez Sarsfield have both lost and won three of their most recent eight games. In their last match they beat Boca Juniors 2-1 at home. They recorded one more shot on goal and also generated more in xG. Yes, they played well but I stress that Boca performed clearly below their normal level. I will not overreact to this result/game. Before this they visited Independiente. It was a 1-1 draw. The hosts recorded one more total shot - 13-12 to be precise.

GOOD LUCK!

辩护法官VS Velez Sarsfield

北京时间周六上午，在诺贝托·蒂托·托马哈罗球场（州长胡里奥·a·科斯塔），法甲后卫欢迎拉普拉塔学生队参加联赛第5轮的比赛。这是阿根廷足球的第一梯队。以全球标准衡量，这个联赛的水平是很高的，在南美排名第二，当然，仅次于竞争激烈的巴西意甲。职业联赛的平均得分低得令人惊讶。这里的进球预期也很低——平局的概率比顶级联赛的平均水平高得多。然而，博彩公司也意识到了这一点。按照这个联赛的标准，一场质量相当不错的比赛将在这里上演！最重要的是，我们认真的，利润饥渴的赌徒有另一个有利可图的赌博机会在这里！在过去的14次意甲比赛中，我们赢了12次。在去年11月结束的Clausura A组常规赛中，Defensa Y Justicia以19分排名第12 /15。然而，我要强调的是，这只比晋级季后赛少了两分。他们只有14次进球，丢了19个球。事实上，他们的进攻确实缺乏一些进攻创造力、速度，有时也缺乏传球的准确性。我要强调的是，东道主的预期得分（xPTS）和预期进球（xG）都大于19和14。最重要的是，在估计这场比赛的概率方面，他们有改进的潜力！萨斯菲尔德以26分位列B组第四名。他们的比分差是19:12。他们在好几场比赛中都有些运气。有趣的是，这两支球队最近5场比赛中有4场是平局。只有一次总进球数超过2.5个。

是的，萨斯菲尔德以10分排名A组第一。他们进了六球，丢了三球。然而，这是非常误导的！事实上，他们每场比赛的预期xG数只有1.31。此外，他们每场比赛的预期进球数（xGA）为1.63。东道主的活动开始得很好！他们以8分排名第四。他们的净胜球是+2，他们只丢了两个球，但他们的射门次数更多，但他们的射门次数也更多。考虑到预期的阵容——考虑到主场的巨大优势，我不得不不同意博彩公司提供的客场胜利的赔率只有2.40左右。根据我老练的专家分析，这是50%的匹配。我们将采用防守+正义+0.5球障碍选项。

在最近的一场比赛中，东道主客场3-2击败了纽维尔的老男孩队。博彩公司给客队开出的赢球价格约为4英镑。两队都获得了三次重要的得分机会。在此之前，贾斯蒂亚在客场1-0击败了里埃斯特拉。博彩公司将他们的价格定在4.20左右，以获得全部三分。总的说来，这场比赛还算平衡。客队又一次射正了球门，主队又抓住了一次进球的大好机会。在此之前，防守Y贾斯蒂西亚与阿尔多西维在路上发生了争执-作为弱者。在这场非常防守的比赛中没有进球，两队都没有创造出进球机会。上个月9日，Justicia队在友谊赛中以1比0击败了巴西的Santa Cruz队。事实上，他们在最近的五场比赛中没有输过一场！萨斯菲尔德在最近的8场比赛中3胜3负。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场2-1击败博卡青年队。他们多了一次射正，也创造了更多的射门机会。是的，他们踢得很好，但我强调博卡的表现明显低于他们的正常水平。我不会对这个结果/比赛反应过度。在此之前，他们参观了独立报。双方1比1战平。东道主又记录了一次总射击——准确地说是13-12。

好运！