Salernitana vs Spezia

Salernitana host Spezia for this Italian Serie A round 24 match early Tuesday morning Beijing time at Stadio Arechi in Salerno. Neither team is a good one for this level and I do not expect the most entertaining match but betting-wise it is a very interesting one indeed. Let's take a closer look..

Just by taking a look at the table this pick might sound a bit weird but the league table does not fully illustrate the teams' current power rating that reflect the teams' class. Salernitana are in the last place at the moment - 20th, whilst Spezia are in the 14th place with 25 points. However, according to expected goals points statistic, one of the most important tools for a professional bettor, the hosts would have earned about four points more. This is a significant number indeed. Also, they should have scored about five goals more! As, a result of their pretty bad results they are clearly under-valued by the betting market, football media and perhaps some analysts too. Salernitana do definitely have potential for a a lot better. On the 9th of January they showed what they are capable of doing when they beat Verona away from home 2-1 after a pretty balanced battle. In their most recent match they had no chance at all away from home versus Napoli losing 1-4 but Napoli are a very good team so I would not read too much into that match. Spezia have been lucky this season in terms of expected points and should have earned almost four points less than they actually have in the bank.. They also beat AC Milan, one of the best teams in this league, a few weeks ago 2-1 in Milano despite the hosts being clearly better on the pitch. A lucky win that effects the betting market's valuation on them too much here! Spezia are the better team for sure but with a big home advantage the hosts are slim favorites here and have a very good chance not to lose!

Salernitana will be without Francesco Di Tacchio, Matteo Ruggeri and Mamadou Coulibaly because of injuries. Federic Vaseli is suspended. Salernitana were, a bit surprisingly, extremely active during the January transfer window. As a result I have increased their power rating! A large number of new guys are expected to be on the pitch for this battle. More specifically, Federico Fazio, Pasquale Mazzocchi, Emil Bohinen, Ivan Radovanovic and Lys Mousset are likely to feature for the hosts. For the visitors Simone Bastoni is out due to a muscular problem, but Aimar Sher should be back after hip issues.