In my opinion Boro have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up (good possibility for 3 points). In that case +0 AH looks like very safe bet.

Boro is unbeaten in 11 of last 15 matches against Blackburn and they have all required tools to make some points today. This is not long trip for the guests, it's just about 2 hours drive by car from Middlesbrough to Blackburn.

At the moment Blackburn is on 2nd place in league table, 5 places above Middlesbrough, but according to the expected goals scored/conceded model Blackburn played worse than their results shows and Boro played better than their results shows. Blackburn scored 44 goals, but according to the model they should score 37.9. They conceded 30 goals, but they should concede 34.2. It's big difference because will such results they should be on 10th place! On the other hand Boro scored 31 goals, but they should score 38 goals. Conceded goals are about correct as they conceded 25 goals (they should 25.2). They should be on 4th place in league table.

Middlesbrough don't have any new absences and coming for this game with very strong squad, their line up should look exactly the same like in previous round. On the other hand Blackburn have huge problem because today they are without Ben Brereton - he scored 20 of 42 Blackburn goals in current season! It's a huge blow for the team and should have very bad impact on their performance.

Blackburn is one of the worst team with the ball in whole league - they have the lowest average ball possession in Championship (42.1%). Only two teams have less accurate passes per game than Blackburn. Boro should be able to control middle zone. Both teams are on very similar level at the back (both kept clean sheet 10 times), but for sure will be easier to defend for Boro because of Brereton absence. Without him will be harder as well to score goals for hosts, on the other hand Boro created more big chances to score in current season and have more shots on target per game than Blackburn.

Blackburn won only one of last 4 matches in all competitions and that was very lucky. They won 1:0 on away against Cardiff, but that was very undeserved result as they had only 4 shots in that game (expected goals scored: 0.15). In last round they lost 0:2 on away against Hull and that was deserved result as Hull had 2.46 expected goals scored in that game. Boro flying sky-high at the moment. They are unbeaten in last 8 matches in all competitions (6 wins in the process). In last game they won 2:1 at home against Reading. They played better all match long and scored deciding goal in additional time. For sure they are full of confidence now.

For me Boro is better team and odds are not fully adjusted to the Brereton absence. Boro should be bigger favorite in this game.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

“我认为米堡在今天的比赛中有很好的机会至少得一分(很有可能得三分)。

米堡在过去的15场对布莱克本的比赛中有11场保持不败，他们今天拥有所有需要的工具来获得一些积分。从米德尔斯堡到布莱克本只需要2个小时的车程。

目前布莱克本在联赛积分榜上排名第二，比米德尔斯堡高5位，但是根据预期进球失球模型，布莱克本的表现比他们的结果差，而米堡的表现比他们的结果好。布莱克本进了44个球，但根据这个模型，他们应该进37.9个球。他们失了30球，但他们应该失34.2球。这是很大的不同，因为这样的结果，他们应该是第十位!另一方面，米堡进了31个球，但他们应该进38个球。失球是正确的，因为他们失球25个(应该是25.2个)。他们应该排在联赛第四名。

米德尔斯堡没有任何新的缺阵，他们将带着非常强大的阵容来参加这场比赛，他们的阵容看起来应该和上一轮完全一样。另一方面，布莱克本面临着巨大的问题，因为今天他们失去了本·布里列顿——他为布莱克本本赛季的42个进球中打进了20个!这对球队来说是一个巨大的打击，应该会对他们的表现产生非常坏的影响。

布莱克本是全联盟控球最差的球队之一，他们的平均控球率最低(42.1%)。每场比赛只有两支球队的传球命中率低于布莱克本。米堡应该能控制中间地带。两支球队在后防线上的水平非常相似(都有10次没有失球)，但可以肯定的是，由于布里列顿的缺席，米堡的防守会更加容易。没有了他，主场的进球也会更加困难，另一方面，米堡在本赛季创造了更多的进球机会，场均射正次数也比布莱克本多。

布莱克本在最后的4场比赛中只赢了一场，这是非常幸运的。他们在客场1:0战胜卡迪夫，但这是一个非常不公平的结果，因为他们在那场比赛中只有4次射门(预期进球:0.15)。在上一轮比赛中，他们0:2输给了赫尔城，这是一个值得的结果，因为赫尔城在那场比赛中有2.46个进球。波罗的海此刻正飞向天空。他们在最近8场比赛中保持不败(6胜)。上一场比赛，他们在主场2:1战胜了雷丁。他们整场比赛都踢得很好，并在加时赛打进了决定性的一球。当然，他们现在充满了信心。

对我来说，米堡是一支更好的球队，在布里列顿的缺席下，胜算还没有完全调整过来。米堡在这场比赛中应该更受欢迎。