VILLARREAL - MALLORCA

Villarreal and Mallorca meet in a game where both arrive in totally opposite dynamics. Villarreal are arguably in their most solid moment of the season, while Mallorca, despite recent signs of life, still carry the burden of a 2025 that began with a collapse—and curiously, it all started precisely here, in Villarreal, with a humiliating 4-0 defeat that opened the floodgates of a disastrous second half of the season.

What I'm seeing from Villarreal this year is quite different to previous campaigns. There’s defensive stability, a clear game plan, and a tactical identity that combines control and explosiveness in transition. Marcelino has managed to transform a team that used to bleed chances into one of the most balanced outfits in the competition.

Only 10 goals conceded in 12 matches says a lot (best defense in the league alongside Real Madrid) —especially considering they’ve kept three clean sheets in a row, against opponents that aren't exactly easy to neutralise. Valencia, Rayo and Espanyol all tried to break them down but failed. And, in my opinion, all three of those sides are on a higher level than Mallorca.

The Submarino Amarillo now has that rare ability to adjust to any game context. At home, they dominate, patiently and with rhythm. Away from home, they strike like a cobra on the counter, needing just a couple of passes to punish mistakes. The win at Cornellà-El Prat against Espanyol was a perfect example of how lethal they can be when given space. But it’s not just transitions—they can break down low blocks too, like they did against Rayo Vallecano, with constant movement in the final third and plenty of quality in the last pass.

This variety is what makes them dangerous. Gerard Moreno is in form and physically fine, and whether he's paired with Ayoze, Tani or Mikautadze (if he’s fit enough), the forward line always finds ways to hurt. Add players like Pépé or Moleiro on the wings, plus a midfield capable of mixing control and verticality—Comesaña, Parejo, Thomas—and you’ve got a side with multiple solutions. Even at the back, Foyth and Renato offer solidity, while Pedraza adds that extra attacking threat from the left.

It's also worth noting that Villarreal haven’t lost at home this season: five wins and a draw in six matches, just three goals conceded (2 from Betis' game), and a whopping 16 scored - two more than Real Madrid at Bernabéu for example.

Mallorca, on the other hand, are still trying to wash off the hangover from that terrible January night. Their fans haven’t forgotten, and you can tell it still weighs on the team. Since that game, they've been inconsistent at best, and downright poor away from home. One win in six away games, five defeats, and most of them without much resistance. Even the lone victory at Sevilla felt more like a gift than a performance.

Yes, they’ve picked up 10 points from the last 18 and seem to be grinding out results again, but I still see a team full of doubts—especially when they play away from Son Moix. The numbers speak for themselves, and the match against Betis is still fresh in my mind: a 3-0 thrashing in just 37 minutes. Mallorca were never in that match. They were overwhelmed, both tactically and physically, and I fear we could see something similar here.

Another big concern for the Balearic side is the goalkeeper situation. Leo Román remains out, and the stand-in, Bergström, has not convinced anyone. He’s shown nerves, poor decision-making, and just doesn’t inspire trust. In matches like these, that often translates into goals.

Add the fatigue from international duty, with key names like Muriqi or Mojica coming back late and possibly not fully fresh, and the preparation for this clash has been far from ideal.

There’s also the psychological element. Mallorca come back to the stadium where their season started to unravel. Villarreal, on the other hand, are playing at home with confidence, with nearly a full squad available, and the memory of that 4-0 win in the back of their heads.

I don’t see the intensity, structure or belief in this Mallorca side to stand up to what Villarreal will throw at them. They’ll likely sit deep, try to survive the early pressure, but once Villarreal start turning the screw—as they always do at home—I expect cracks to appear quickly.

All in all, it’s the kind of matchup where one team looks mature, compact, versatile, and hungry, while the other still feels a bit lost, dragging too much weight from the past and still searching for its true identity away from home.

OSASUNA - REAL SOCIEDAD

Osasuna come into the game with a four-match winless streak, but playing in front of their crowd has been a completely different story this season. Despite their struggles on the road, at home Osasuna have proven to be a tough nut to crack—only one loss so far, and even that came in extremely unfair game against Celta. They missed a penalty, created more chances, and were punished late by a Celta side that was incredibly effective. That match summed up a recurring issue for this Osasuna side: a serious lack of goals.

With just 9 goals in 12 games, it’s clear that the finishing touch is missing. A huge part of that has to do with Budimir’s poor form and, more significantly for this match, his absence due to injury. He’s their target man, the reference in attack, and when he’s not on the pitch, Osasuna struggle to stretch the opposition defence or occupy the penalty area with the same threat.

Still, the return of Aimar Oroz and Lucas Torró offers a much-needed boost. Oroz, in particular, is the kind of player who makes the team tick—he links midfield and attack, helps the team control possession, and brings composure in tight areas. Torró’s role is different but just as important: breaking up play, protecting the back line, and setting the tone in midfield duels.

I expect a very intense Osasuna in this one. They’ll look to press high, to test a Real Sociedad side that, despite being unbeaten in five games, has left behind a lot of question marks. Their recent results don’t reflect the full story—late goals have saved them more than once, and performances against teams like Elche, Celta or even Sevilla have been far from convincing. The lack of control in games, the reliance on last-minute moments and their general softness at the back are clear signs that the team isn’t fully settled.

Add to that a string of injuries. Zubeldia is a big doubt, with other players like Óscarson, Herrera and Karrikaburu also unavailable or not fully fit. Up front, key names like Kubo, Guedes and Soler are still far from their best form. The only one consistently performing is Oyarzabal, who’s shouldering the attacking responsibilities almost on his own. But for all the talent in the squad, Real Sociedad are still winless away from home this season—six matches, no victories. And it’s not just the results: lost points in games where they were second-best for long spells.

This is where I see Osasuna having the edge. They’re under pressure, yes—but pressure at El Sadar often fuels them. The crowd demands intensity and grit, and that’s usually what they get. Even with Budimir out, they have a squad capable of making it tough for anyone, especially at home. The real challenge for Lisci will be how to replace Budimir’s presence and rework the attacking plan. But with Oroz available again, there are more solutions available, more creativity, more control.

I genuinely believe Real Sociedad could struggle here. The international break may have disrupted their rhythm, confidence, and positive mood, and their away form leaves very little to trust. Osasuna have had time to reset, work on their structure, and will go all in for the three points. Last season they won this same fixture 2-1, and while both teams have changed since, the pattern could repeat itself. The Sadar is a fortress when Osasuna need it to be.

This feels like the right moment for the rojillos to react, to show personality and grind out a much-needed win. They’ve done it before, and the ingredients are there to do it again.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

比利亚雷亚尔-马略卡

比利亚雷亚尔和马洛卡在一场完全相反的比赛中相遇。比利亚雷亚尔可以说是本赛季最稳定的时刻，而马洛卡，尽管最近有生命的迹象，仍然背负着以崩溃开始的2025年的负担——奇怪的是，这一切都是在这里开始的，比利亚雷亚尔，一场耻辱的4比0的失利打开了灾难性的后半赛季的闸门。

今年我从比利亚雷亚尔身上看到的与以往的比赛完全不同。防守稳定，有清晰的比赛计划，在转换中结合控制和爆发力的战术特征。马塞利诺已经成功地将一支曾经错失机会的球队转变为比赛中最平衡的球队之一。

在12场比赛中只丢了10个球，这说明了很多（联赛中最好的防守与皇马并列）——特别是考虑到他们连续三场不失球，面对的对手并不容易被中和。瓦伦西亚，雷约和西班牙人都试图打破他们，但都失败了。在我看来，这三支球队的水平都比马洛卡高。

潜水艇阿马里洛现在有了适应任何游戏环境的罕见能力。在主场，他们耐心而有节奏地占据统治地位。在客场，他们像眼镜蛇一样出击，只需要几次传球就能惩罚失误。在Cornellà-El普拉特对西班牙人的胜利是一个完美的例子，证明了他们在有空间的情况下是多么致命。但这不仅仅是转移，他们也可以打破低位封盖，就像他们在对阵巴列卡诺的比赛中所做的那样，在最后三分之一处不断移动，在最后一次传球中有足够的质量。

正是这种多样性让它们变得危险。杰拉德·莫雷诺状态良好，身体状况也很好，无论他是和阿约泽、谷俊雄还是米库塔泽搭档（如果他足够健康的话），锋线总是会有受伤的地方。在边路加上像p<s:1>和莫莱罗这样的球员，再加上能够混合控制和verticality-Comesaña、帕雷霍、托马斯的中场，你就得到了一支有多种解决方案的球队。即使在后腰，福伊斯和雷纳托也提供了稳固的保障，而佩德拉萨则在左路增加了额外的进攻威胁。

同样值得注意的是，比利亚雷亚尔本赛季没有在主场输过球：6场比赛5胜1平，只丢了3球（与贝蒂斯的比赛中丢了2球），进了惊人的16球——比如在伯纳姆萨乌比皇马多进了2球。

另一方面，马略卡岛仍在努力洗去一月那个可怕夜晚的宿醉。他们的球迷没有忘记，你可以看出这支球队仍然很重。自那场比赛以来，他们表现不稳定，客场表现也很差。6场客场1胜，5场失利，而且大部分都没有遇到什么阻力。即使是对塞维利亚的唯一胜利，也更像是一份礼物，而不是一场表演。

是的，他们在过去的18场比赛中拿到了10分，而且似乎又在努力取得成绩，但我仍然认为这是一支充满疑问的球队——尤其是当他们客场对阵孙兴慜的时候。数字不言自明，与贝蒂斯的比赛仍然历历在目：仅仅37分钟就以3比0大败。马洛卡没有参加那场比赛。他们在战术上和身体上都被击败了，我担心我们在这里也会看到类似的情况。

巴利阿里的另一个大问题是门将的问题。里奥Román仍然缺席，而替身Bergström也没有说服任何人。他表现得很紧张，决策失误，无法赢得信任。在这样的比赛中，这通常会转化为进球。

再加上国家队比赛带来的疲劳，像穆里奇和莫希卡这样的关键球员回归晚了，可能还没有完全恢复，这场比赛的准备工作远非理想。

还有心理因素。马洛卡回到了他们赛季开始瓦解的球场。另一方面，比利亚雷亚尔在主场打得很有信心，几乎满员，4-0取胜的记忆还在他们的脑海里。

我看不出这支马略卡球队的强度、结构和信念能抵挡比利亚雷亚尔的进攻。他们可能会坐得很深，试图在早期的压力下生存下来，但一旦比利亚雷亚尔开始扭转局面——就像他们在国内经常做的那样——我预计裂缝很快就会出现。

总而言之，在这种对位中，一支球队看起来成熟、紧凑、全能、充满渴望，而另一支球队仍然感觉有点迷失，背负着太多过去的重担，仍然在寻找自己在客场的真实身份。

奥萨苏纳——真正的社会

奥萨苏纳带着四连胜进入比赛，但在前面

他们的球迷本赛季完全是另一番景象。尽管他们在客场表现不佳，但在主场奥萨苏纳已经证明了他们是一个很难对付的人——到目前为止他们只输了一场球，即使是在对阵塞尔塔的比赛中，他们也非常不公平。他们错过了一个点球，创造了更多的机会，最后被塞尔塔队罚得非常有效。那场比赛总结了奥萨苏纳这支球队反复出现的问题：严重缺乏进球。

在12场比赛中只有9个进球，很明显，他们还没有完成比赛。这很大程度上与布迪米尔糟糕的状态有关，更重要的是，他因伤缺席了这场比赛。他是他们的目标，进攻中的参考，当他不在场上时，奥萨苏纳努力拉长对方的防线，或者以同样的威胁占领禁区。

尽管如此，奥罗兹和卢卡斯Torró的回归给球队带来了急需的动力。尤其是奥罗兹，他是那种能让球队运转起来的球员——他连接中场和进攻，帮助球队控制控球，并在紧张的区域保持冷静。Torró的作用是不同的，但同样重要：打破比赛，保护后防线，并在中场决斗中定下基调。

我希望这首歌能有强烈的奥萨苏纳风格。他们会把压力压得更高，来考验皇家社会，尽管他们在五场比赛中保持不败，但还是留下了很多问号。他们最近的成绩并没有完全反映出他们的实力——最后时刻的进球不止一次拯救了他们，在对阵埃尔切、塞尔塔甚至塞维利亚等球队时的表现也远不能令人信服。在比赛中缺乏控制，对最后时刻的依赖，以及他们在后防线上的软弱，都清楚地表明球队还没有完全稳定下来。

再加上一连串的伤病。朱贝尔迪亚是一个很大的疑问，其他球员如Óscarson，埃雷拉和卡里卡布鲁也不能上场或没有完全康复。在锋线上，像久保、盖德斯和索勒这样的关键球员还远没有达到最佳状态。唯一表现稳定的是奥亚扎巴尔，他几乎独自承担了进攻的责任。但是尽管球队中有这么多天才，皇家社会本赛季在客场仍然一胜未得——六场比赛，一场胜利也没有。不仅仅是比赛结果：他们在长时间处于第二名的比赛中丢分。

这就是我认为奥萨苏纳有优势的地方。是的，他们承受着压力，但在El Sadar的压力往往会助长他们。观众要求的是强度和勇气，他们通常也能得到。即使布迪米尔缺席，他们的阵容也能让任何人都很艰难，尤其是在主场。对利西来说，真正的挑战将是如何取代布迪米尔的存在，并重新制定进攻计划。但有了Oroz，就有了更多的解决方案，更多的创造力，更多的控制力。

我真的相信皇家社会会在这里挣扎。国际比赛的间歇期可能打乱了他们的节奏、信心和积极的情绪，他们的客场状态也让人难以信任。奥萨苏纳有时间重新调整，调整他们的结构，并将全力以赴争取三分。上个赛季，他们以2比1的比分赢得了同样的比赛，虽然两支球队都发生了变化，但这种模式可能会重演。当奥萨苏纳需要的时候，萨达尔就是一座堡垒。

感觉这是rojillo们做出反应、展示个性并努力赢得一场急需的胜利的最佳时机。他们以前就这么做过，现在的原料可以再来一次。