LATVIA - ANDORRA

I'm living in Andorra for years, and having played in the local league myself, I know exactly what level we’re talking about here. I’ve shared pitches some of these national team players; they’re hard-working lads, dedicated and proud, but the jump in quality between our domestic competition and any professional league in Europe is enormous. The Andorran Primera is semi-amateur at best. The rhythm, the conditioning, the tactical repetition—it’s all miles off. Most players train in the evenings after their day jobs, and when they face full-time professionals, you can see the difference from the first whistle.

For this fixture they have back striker Berto Rosas from UD Logroñes, a mid-level team from the spanish 4th category. He is important and will be starter, and this tells you everything about the level of this team. One of the best players - Pau Babot (playing in Germany' lower leagues) is suspended.

That’s why this matchup with Latvia feels so uneven, no matter what the FIFA rankings might say. The reality is that almost all of Andorra’s internationals play for small local clubs; none of them play for FC Andorra, the only truly professional team here competing in Spain’s Segunda División. And even within our domestic league, many of the best footballers are foreigners who can’t represent the national team because the naturalisation process is so strict.

There are fewer than forty thousand Andorran citizens, which tells you everything about the size of the talent pool. So when people talk about “Andorra at home being dangerous,” I smile. Yes, the trip is long, yes, the altitude (around 1,500 metres) helps a little, but at this level, organisation and fitness decide matches—not geography.

I watched that first game back in March closely. Latvia won 0–1, and it could easily have been two or three; Andorra barely crossed halfway. Latvia weren’t brilliant that day either, but even at half-speed, their physicality and discipline were too much. You could tell the Andorrans were giving everything, but against professional legs it’s hard to sustain the press or hold shape for ninety minutes.

Since then, nothing has changed. Five defeats in five games, no goals scored. The only positive results Andorra have managed in the last two years came against sides like San Marino or a Malta team playing seventy minutes with ten men. The structure might look solid for spells, but when they face sustained pressure, cracks appear—positionally and mentally.

Latvia, on the other hand, are at least a team with real professionals scattered around decent European leagues. Tobers at Aberdeen, Krollis at Slovan Liberec, Gutkovskis in South Korea, Vapne in Norway—all of them used to higher tempo football and better tactical habits. Even the players from the Latvian league play in an environment that’s far more competitive than anything in Andorra. You can see it in their confidence with the ball and their ability to recover shape after losing it.

Paolo Nicolato has also got them organised. I’ve followed his press conferences this week, and he’s been very clear: they’ll play with two strikers and push both full-backs high to break the block early. They’ve spent the whole camp working on how to create against a deep defence. That tells you they’re taking this seriously; there’s no complacency here.

Andorra will sit deep, they’ll try to waste time and frustrate, but Latvia’s physical superiority and better rhythm should eventually open them up. You can’t hold a compact shape forever when the opponent is fitter, quicker and sharper on set-pieces. I’ve seen it here countless times. When Andorra play against proper pros, it always becomes a question of how long they can resist, not whether they can match them.

So yes, there's a big gap here. Latvia have more quality, more pace, and more experience at a real professional level. Unless something extraordinary happens, that will show again on the pitch.

SPAIN - GEORGIA

When you’ve followed Georgia closely over the past couple of years, you start to realise they’ve become a proper footballing side. Under Willy Sagnol they’ve built a clear identity—compact, structured, quick in transition—and even against the very top nations they’ve stopped being a soft touch. Spain will dominate the ball in Elche, that’s a given, but this Georgia can make even the best work for every inch of space.

For me, this isn’t the same story as those heavy defeats of 2023 and 2024. Spain arrive with a patched-up squad, full of absences that cut right through the spine of De la Fuente’s system. Rodri, Nico Williams, Dani Olmo, Carvajal, Lamine Yamal, Huijsen, Rodri, Fermin, Gavi, Fabian —gone. And Alvaro Morata has not been called. That’s not just talent, it’s chemistry and vertical threat.

When you take away that core, you take away the automatisms Spain rely on to accelerate in the final third. They still have quality, of course—they always do—but this is very much a “unit B” version of La Roja, with younger pieces who haven’t played together much.

Georgia, meanwhile, come into this with confidence after their 3–0 win over Bulgaria. Sagnol has everyone fit, including Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who’s confirmed himself ready after minor knocks. Mikautadze is in brilliant form at Villarreal, Mamardashvili is one of the best keepers in Europe right now, and the rest of the group has grown together through the Nations League and Euro 2024 experience. You can see the maturity in their spacing: a disciplined 5-3-2 when defending, and instant verticality when they recover through Kochorashvili or Kvekveskiri.

What I like about this Georgia is their timing on the break. They don’t chase the ball; they wait for you to mis-position. Spain’s full-backs, especially Cucurella and Porro, will push high and that always leaves the channels open. One clean diagonal from Kashia or Kakabadze and Kvaratskhelia is off, dragging Laporte into areas he doesn’t enjoy. And with Mikautadze as a mobile reference, they can create two-v-twos even from limited possession. Against a Spain side that might field Zubimendi and Merino together, that transitional threat is their best weapon.

Spain, of course, will still look like Spain. They’ll move the ball with patience, press high, and probably rack up 70 per cent possession. But without Rodri controlling rhythm, they risk those long spells where circulation becomes sterile. Pedri will have to drop deeper, and when that happens, they lose the line-breaking passes higher up. That’s precisely when Georgia can survive, frustrate, and keep the match inside a manageable scoreline.

There’s also the question of sharpness. Many of Spain’s replacements—Borja Iglesias, De Frutos, Jesús Rodríguez—are still finding their footing at international level. This kind of night, with the Martínez Valero crowd expecting another 4-1, is tricky for a side that’s still gelling. Georgia know that; they’ll slow the tempo, make it scrappy, rely on Mamardashvili’s command and Kvaratskhelia’s individual flashes to keep Spain honest.

I’ve watched Sagnol’s group enough to know they won’t panic if they fall behind either. They stay disciplined, keep their distances, and wait for set-pieces or a rare counter. In a match where Spain are missing half their attacking engine, Georgia’s structure and experience can absolutely keep it respectable. They’re not coming to Elche to win a possession battle—they’re coming to survive it intelligently.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the scoreboard reflects that balance. Spain should still edge it, but Georgia have grown too much, and Spain’s absences too many, for another runaway. Expect a resilient, organised side that forces La Roja to work harder than the names on paper suggest.

拉脱维亚-安道尔

我在安道尔生活了很多年，我自己也在当地联赛踢过球，我很清楚我们在这里谈论的是什么水平。我曾分享过一些国家队球员的球技；他们都很努力，很敬业，很自豪，但是我们的国内联赛和欧洲任何职业联赛的水平都有很大的提升。安道尔联赛充其量是半业余的。节奏、条件、战术上的重复——这些都是遥不可及的。大多数球员在白天工作后的晚上训练，当他们面对全职的职业球员时，你可以从第一声哨响就看出他们的不同。

在这场比赛中，他们有来自UD Logroñes的前锋贝尔托·罗萨斯，这是一支来自西班牙第四级别的中级球队。他很重要，将成为首发球员，这说明了这支球队的水平。最好的球员之一——保罗·巴博特（效力于德国低级别联赛）被禁赛。

这就是为什么与拉脱维亚的比赛感觉如此不平衡，无论国际足联的排名如何。事实上，几乎所有的安道尔国脚都效力于当地的小俱乐部；他们都不是安道尔足球俱乐部（FC Andorra）的球员，安道尔足球俱乐部是唯一一支真正参加西班牙第二联赛División的职业球队。即使在我们的国内联赛中，许多最好的足球运动员都是外国人，他们不能代表国家队参赛，因为入籍程序非常严格。

安道尔的人口不足4万，这足以说明人才储备的规模。所以当人们谈论“安道尔在国内是危险的”时，我微笑着。是的，旅程很长，海拔（大约1500米）也有一定的帮助，但在这个水平上，决定比赛的是组织和体能，而不是地理位置。

我仔细观看了三月份的第一场比赛。拉脱维亚0-1取胜，本可以轻松拿下两到三分；安道尔勉强跨过了一半。拉脱维亚那天的表现也不出色，但即使在半速状态下，他们的身体素质和纪律也太过严格。你可以看出，安道尔人竭尽全力，但面对职业球员，很难在90分钟内保持压力或保持状态。

从那以后，一切都没有改变。五场比赛五败，一球未进。安道尔在过去两年中取得的唯一积极成绩是对阵圣马力诺或马耳他队，他们用10人打了70分钟。这种结构可能在一段时间内看起来很坚固，但当他们面临持续的压力时，就会出现裂痕——无论是在位置上还是在精神上。

另一方面，拉脱维亚至少是一支拥有真正职业球员的球队，他们分散在体面的欧洲联赛中。托伯斯在阿伯丁，科洛里斯在斯洛文尼亚利贝雷茨，古特科夫斯基在韩国，瓦涅在挪威——他们都习惯了快节奏的足球和更好的战术习惯。即使是来自拉脱维亚联赛的球员，他们的比赛环境也比安道尔的竞争激烈得多。你可以从他们控球的信心和丢球后恢复状态的能力中看到这一点。

保罗·尼古拉托也组织了他们。我关注了他这周的新闻发布会，他说得很清楚：他们将使用两名前锋，并将两名边后卫推到高位，以便尽早突破防守。他们花了整个营地的时间研究如何对付纵深防御。这说明他们在认真对待这个问题；这里没有自满。

安道尔将会坐稳阵脚，他们会试图浪费时间和挫败，但拉脱维亚的身体优势和更好的节奏最终会打开他们。当对手在定位球上变得更强壮、更快、更犀利时，你不可能永远保持一个紧凑的阵型。我在这里见过无数次了。当安道尔队与合适的职业选手比赛时，问题就变成了他们能抵抗多久，而不是他们能否与之匹敌。

所以，确实存在很大的差距。拉脱维亚在真正的专业水平上有更高的质量，更快的速度和更多的经验。除非有什么特别的事情发生，否则这将再次在球场上表现出来。

西班牙-格鲁吉亚

当你在过去的几年里密切关注格鲁吉亚时，你开始意识到他们已经成为一支真正的足球球队。在威利·萨格诺的领导下，他们建立了一个清晰的身份——紧凑、有组织、快速过渡——即使面对最顶尖的国家，他们也不再是一个软弱的人。西班牙将在埃尔切统治球权，这是肯定的，但这个格鲁吉亚甚至可以在每一寸空间里做出最好的工作。

对我来说，这与2023年和2024年的惨败不同。西班牙队带着一个修补过的阵容来到这里，他们的缺阵直接破坏了德拉富恩特体系的核心。Rodri, Nico Williams, Dani Olmo, Carvajal, Lamine Yamal, Huijsen, Rodri, Fermin, Gavi, Fabia

当你失去了核心，你就失去了西班牙在最后三分之一的加速所依赖的自动性。当然，他们仍然有实力——他们一直都是这样——但这支球队更像是“B组”版的“皇家”，年轻的球员们在一起的时间并不多。

与此同时，格鲁吉亚在3-0战胜保加利亚后信心十足地进入了决赛。萨格诺让每个人都恢复了状态，包括克瓦拉茨基利亚，他在轻微受伤后已经确认自己已经准备好了。米考塔泽在比利亚雷亚尔的状态非常出色，马马达什维利是目前欧洲最好的门将之一，其他球员在国家联赛和2024年欧洲杯的经历中共同成长。你可以看到他们在空间上的成熟：防守时是一个有纪律的5-3-2阵型，当他们通过科乔拉什维利或克韦克维斯基里回防时是一个垂直的阵型。

我喜欢这个乔治亚的地方是他们休息的时间。他们不追逐球；他们等着你放错位置。西班牙的边后卫，尤其是库库雷拉和波尔罗，会把球推得很高，这总是会让通道打开。卡什亚或卡卡巴泽和克瓦拉茨谢利亚的一次干净对角线犯规，把拉波特拖进了他不喜欢的地方。有了Mikautadze作为移动参考，他们甚至可以在有限的控球情况下创造二对二。面对可能由祖比门迪和梅里诺组合的西班牙队，这种过渡威胁是他们最好的武器。

当然，西班牙仍将是西班牙的模样。他们会耐心地移动球，高压，可能会获得70%的控球率。但如果没有罗德里控制节奏，他们就有可能长期处于血液循环不畅的状态。佩德里将不得不深入防守，当这种情况发生时，他们就会失去高位的断线传球。正是在这种情况下，格鲁吉亚才能生存下来，挫败对手，并将比赛保持在可控的比分范围内。

还有一个锐利度的问题。许多西班牙的替代者——博尔哈·伊格莱西亚斯，德·弗鲁托斯，Jesús Rodríguez-are——仍在国际赛场上寻找自己的立足之地。这样的夜晚，Martínez的瓦莱罗球迷期待着又一场4比1的比赛，这对于一支仍在努力的球队来说是很棘手的。格鲁吉亚知道这一点；他们会放慢节奏，让比赛变得激烈，依靠马马达什维利的指挥和克瓦拉茨基利亚的个人闪动来保持西班牙的诚实。

我观察过萨格诺的队伍，知道他们即使落后也不会惊慌。他们保持纪律，保持距离，等待定位球或罕见的反击。在这场西班牙失去了一半进攻引擎的比赛中，格鲁吉亚的结构和经验绝对可以让他们保持体面。他们来埃尔切不是为了赢得控球战，而是为了聪明地生存下来。

如果计分板反映了这种平衡，我不会感到惊讶。西班牙应该还能勉强入围，但格鲁吉亚增长太快，西班牙缺席太多，不可能再次出线。期待一支有韧性、有组织的球队，迫使拉罗哈比纸面上的名字更努力地工作。