Barracas Central VS Belgrano

Barracas Central welcome Belgrano for this Liga Profesional (Clausura) Group A round 10 very early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is the first tier of Argentinian football. This is the second-best league in South America, after the Brazilian Serie A. It is, on average, a very low-scoring league. I highlight that the goal expectancy here is even a little lower than the bookmakers seem to estimate. I expect a pretty defensive - and not the most entertaining clash. The probability of a draw is significantly bigger than usual in professional football.  Football fans and us serious football bettors can expect a match of pretty mediocre quality by this league's standards here.  Most importantly we have yet another very promising betting opportunity! Indeed, we have won eight of the last 10 picks betting on this league! With current line-ups -  even taking the mediocre home advantage into account - I must disagree with the bookies who offer odds of  only around 2.75 on the home win. We will take the Belgrano +0.5 goals handicap option. The host will be without Bruera, Insua,Lopez and Pianovi. As for the visitors, Heredia, Ricca and Velasquez are out. Let's remember that according to Transfermarkt.com, a well-known and respected source, the hosts are the bigger team here -  by a pretty significant margin. However, the Transfermarkt.com values are, in my expert opinion, a little misleading here.. The Belgrano squad has an estimated market value of some 31 million euros. However, about 36-37 million would be a more accurate number.. The Barracas Central players are worth an estimated total of about 21 million. This is slightly too high.

Yes, Barracas Central have started well - and are currently in 3rd place. They have grabbed 15 points. However, they have been somewhat lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They have netted the ball a decent 11 times and have conceded nine goals. However, their number of goals against (xGA) is bigger. However, their defensive structure has been better than I would have expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. I expect them to drop down in the standings as the season progresses.. Belgrano have taken three points less than the hosts but have the same score difference of +2. Their defence has a fine structure and silly defensive mistakes have been rare. They have allowed only seven goals.

Barracas Central have won only one of their last five games and seem to be in decline. In their last game they faced Sarmiento Junin at home, priced around 2.15 to win on the betting market. The visitors took a 1-0 win, after a pretty boring game as a whole. The hosts did record one more big scoring chance but both teams had three shots on goal.  Belgran0 have won two of their last games, scoring a total of six goals. In their last match they beat Newells Old Boys 3-0 at home. However, the final score does, in all honesty, flatter them. The visitors had one more shot on target. Before this they crushed the same opponent 3-1 at a neutral location. It was a Copa Argentina clash. They generated 2.32 more in xG and had a whopping 25 total shots.

GOOD LUCK!

巴萨中央VS贝尔格拉诺

北京时间周二凌晨，巴萨中央欢迎贝尔格拉诺参加甲级联赛A组第10轮比赛。这是阿根廷足球的第一梯队。这是南美洲第二好的联赛，仅次于巴西甲级联赛。平均来说，这是一个得分很低的联赛。我要强调的是，这里的进球预期甚至比博彩公司估计的还要低一点。我预计这将是一场防御性很强的比赛，而不是最有趣的比赛。在职业足球比赛中，平局的可能性比平时要大得多。足球迷和我们这些严肃的足球投注者可以期待一场以这个联赛的标准来看质量相当平庸的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有前途的赌博机会！事实上，我们在过去的10次选秀中赢了8次。考虑到目前的阵容——即使考虑到平庸的主场优势——我必须不同意博彩公司对主场胜利的赔率只有2.75左右的说法。我们将选择贝尔格拉诺+0.5个进球障碍选项。东道主将没有布鲁拉、因苏阿、洛佩兹和皮亚诺维。至于访客，埃雷迪亚、丽卡和委拉斯开兹都不在。让我们记住，根据Transfermarkt.com，一个知名且受人尊敬的消息来源，东道主在这里是更大的球队——以相当大的差距。然而，在我看来，Transfermarkt.com的价值在这里有点误导。据估计，贝尔格拉诺队的市场价值约为3100万欧元。然而，大约3600万到3700万是更准确的数字。巴拉卡斯中央队球员的身价总计约为2100万美元。这有点太高了。

是的，Barracas Central开局不错，目前排名第三。他们已经拿到了15分。然而，就期望值（xPTS）而言，它们还是比较幸运的。他们有11次进球，丢了9个球。然而，他们对（xGA）的进球数更多。然而，他们的防守结构比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好。我预计他们的排名会随着赛季的进展而下降。贝尔格拉诺虽然比东道主少了3分，但两队的积分差距都是+2。他们的防守结构很好，很少出现愚蠢的防守失误。他们只丢了7个球。

巴萨中央队在最近的五场比赛中只赢了一场，而且似乎正在走下坡路。在他们的上一场比赛中，他们在主场面对萨米恩托·朱宁（sammiento Junin），在博彩市场上的胜率约为2.15英镑。客队在一场相当无聊的比赛后以1比0取胜。主队确实又创造了一次重要的得分机会，但两队都有三次射门。贝尔格拉诺在最近的比赛中赢了两场，总共进了6个球。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场以3比0击败纽维尔老男孩队。然而，说实话，最后的分数确实让他们感到高兴。客队又射正了一次。在此之前，他们在一个中立的地方以3比1击败了同一个对手。这是阿根廷杯的比赛。他们在xG上多出了2.32分，总共出手了惊人的25次。

好运！