VILLARREAL - ATHLETIC

I’m siding with Athletic to avoid defeat here because, when you strip the badges off and just look at the football, the match-up suits them. Villarreal have been riding their luck: two late wins against ten men don’t convince me they control games, and their defensive framework still looks flimsy when the full-backs jump and the two pivots get stretched.

Add a laundry list of absences and half-fit returnees, and I see a back line that can be pulled apart if you attack the spaces early rather than circling the box. Comesaña not starting is a small-but-real blow for their rest defence; without him, Parejo has to both dictate and screen, and he can’t be in two places at once.

Athletic’s funk is undeniable, but it’s been exaggerated by game states against low blocks where they’ve had to force the lock. This will not be that kind of night. Marcelino’s sides don’t barricade La Cerámica; they step forward and they try to punch. That opens the corridors Iñaki loves, even if his touch isn’t purring, and it gives Sancet something he’s lacked in recent weeks: receptions facing goal, not with a centre-back in his jersey.

If Athletic are brave on first regain—one vertical pass instead of three safe ones—the transitions are there. I’d angle those first balls into the right channel, where Areso can overlap and Robert Navarro can drift inside to overload Parejo’s zone. You don’t need Nico Williams to threaten depth if your first pass is assertive and the second runner (Jaureguízar) arrives at the D.

I also like the feel of the centre-back pairing. With Vivian back alongside Laporte, the box should be calmer, and Laporte’s passing range is a weapon as long as he plays quickly—two touches, not five—so Villarreal can’t set their press.

Athletic’s weakness lately has been second balls around their own area; Villarreal live off those recycled moments from wide. The fix is boring but decisive: hold the line two metres deeper on crosses, win the first duel, and have the weak-side eight switched on for the clearance. If they tidy that detail, Villarreal’s easiest route dries up.

Set plays matter, too. The hosts’ marking after the initial clearance is loose; Athletic are good at keeping the ball alive with Paredes/Vivian attacking the first contact and Sancet hanging for the drop. One clean, rehearsed second-phase strike can change the temperature of the night.

Form guides often lie when styles clash. Villarreal’s recent clean sheets arrived against the division’s softest attacks; everyone else has found a way through because the distances in yellow without the ball are still wonky. Athletic’s run looks grim on paper, but the one opponent who offered space—Betis—were beaten away, and this game shares that rhythm.

History backs the feeling: Villarreal have barely nicked any of the recent head-to-heads, and last season’s 0-0 here already showed that Athletic can mute their punch and still create the one or two big transition moments they need.

So yes, I’m bullish on Athletic not losing. It’s a 50-50 in talent, but the geometry tilts their way: more pitch to attack, a sturdier centre-back axis, and a midfield profile that can both disrupt Parejo and hurt the hosts at the top of the box. If they resist the urge to turn every attack into a hopeful cross and trust the first vertical pass, they come out of La Cerámica with something.

MALLORCA - ALAVES

I can’t shake the feeling that the game is arriving to Mallorca at the worst possible moment for them and the best possible one for Alavés. When a club spends the week firefighting — whispers of a schism in the dressing room, senior players at odds with the manager, public apologies, and a local crowd sharpening its whistles — the football rarely flows.

Add to that the absences of Jan Virgili with Spain U20 and two structural pillars like Mascarell and Kumbulla, and you’ve got a side stripped of ball progression and defensive authority. You can promise a reset and a back four all you like; if the collective confidence is brittle, the first misplaced pass brings the ghosts straight back.

Alavés, meanwhile, look like a grown-up team. Eight points from six with a performance curve that’s trending upward, and that Getafe draw said a lot more than the 1-1 suggests. Coudet has found a compact mid-block that’s hard to shift, with Jonny Otto steadying the right, Garcés and Tenaglia aggressive in the duels, and Yusi giving them proper width on the left. In front, Pablo Ibañez has been the quiet metronome, Ander Guevara timed his arrival in the box to perfection the other night, and Antonio Blanco gives them a clean first pass to play out of pressure. The blueprint is clear: defend your box well, break lines early, and trust the wide men to explode transitions.

If Mallorca do pivot back to a four, they’ll need much cleaner distances between Morlanes and Samu Costa than we’ve seen lately, because Alavés are ruthless at attacking the inside-channels once they steal. Watch that first vertical ball into Boyé’s feet or into the space Tony Martínez can attack across the front of centre-backs; even Mariano, erratic as he can be, occupies defenders and creates second balls for late runners like Guevara.

And then there’s set pieces. Alavés are well drilled there: near-post flicks, back-post screens, the second play after a half-clearance. With Son Moix anxious and Mallorca’s organisation wobbling after first contact, those restarts could be decisive.

The other recurring theme with this Alavés is the strange efficiency of their opponents: they concede few shots, yet the ones they face are high value. That’s concentration more than structure. If they tidy those 10-second lapses — the loose header, the missed cover at the far stick — Sivera won’t keep picking the ball out of his net from the only shot on target. Against a Mallorca that has scored in fits and starts and often needs several touches to build up courage around the box, the odds of being punished by the first attempt are naturally lower.

Psychology matters here. Mallorca have won four matches in the whole of 2025, two against relegated sides, and you can see it in the body language: heavy legs, slower reactions, arguments directed sideways instead of forward movement.

Arrasate’s words about having “betrayed himself” tactically are honest, but the group must buy the change for it to stick. If the opening 20 minutes don’t go their way, the atmosphere will turn, and that’s exactly when Alavés are at their most comfortable — compact, cynical when needed, and happy to let Carlos Vicente or Abde run at a full-back exposed in transition.

I expect Coudet to repeat the recent formula: keep the block at 30–35 metres, compress the centre, and spring quickly toward the channels. Mallorca will try to assert some front-foot identity with Darder and Torre between the lines, but without Mascarell’s anchoring presence and with the noise around the group, sustaining pressing traps and controlling second balls feels a tall order.

On balance, I trust Alavés’ structure and clarity more than Mallorca’s promise of a reset on a stormy night.

比利亚雷亚尔-竞技

我站在竞技这边是为了避免在这里失利，因为当你脱下徽章，只看看足球，这种比赛很适合他们。比利亚雷亚尔一直在靠运气：在10人的情况下，最后阶段的两场胜利并不能让我相信他们控制了比赛，他们的防守框架在边后卫跳起和两个轴心被拉伸时仍然显得脆弱。

再加上一长串缺阵和半健康回归的球员名单，我认为，如果你早点进攻空位，而不是围着禁区打转，你的后卫线是可以被撕开的。Comesaña不首发是一个小而真实的打击他们的休息防守；没有他，帕雷霍必须同时指挥和掩护，他不能同时出现在两个地方。

竞技的恐惧是不可否认的，但在面对低盖帽的比赛状态下，他们不得不强行锁定，这种恐惧被夸大了。今晚不会是那样的夜晚。马塞利诺的球队没有封锁La Cerámica；他们向前走，试图出拳。这打开了Iñaki爱的走廊，即使他的触球没有发出呼噜声，这也给了桑切特最近几周所缺乏的东西：面对球门的接球，而不是穿着球衣的中后卫。

如果竞技队在第一次接球时勇敢一点——一次垂直传球而不是三次安全传球——那么转变就在那里。我会让第一个球进入正确的通道，这样阿雷索就可以重叠，罗伯特·纳瓦罗就可以在里面飘过帕累霍的区域。如果你的第一个传球是自信的，第二个跑者（Jaureguízar）到达D，你不需要尼科·威廉姆斯来威胁深度。

我也喜欢中卫组合的感觉。当维维安回到拉波特身边时，禁区应该会更平静，拉波特的传球范围是一个武器，只要他快速跑动——两次触球，而不是五次——这样比利亚雷亚尔就无法施加压力。

竞技最近的弱点是在他们自己的区域内的第二球；比利亚雷亚尔依靠这些边路的重复得分。解决办法很无聊，但却是决定性的：在传中时将防线往纵深两米，赢得第一次对攻，然后打开弱侧8号线解围。如果他们清理了这些细节，比利亚雷亚尔最容易的路线就没了。

套路也很重要。主机初始间隙后打标松动；竞技擅长保持球的活力，帕雷德斯/维维安在第一次接触时进攻，桑切特吊球。一次干净的，排练过的第二阶段打击可以改变夜晚的温度。

当样式冲突时，表单指南经常会出错。比利亚雷亚尔最近的零失球来自于联赛中最弱的进攻；其他所有人都找到了通过的方法，因为没有球的黄色距离仍然不稳定。竞技在纸面上看起来很糟糕，但唯一一个提供空间的对手贝蒂斯被击败了，这场比赛也有同样的节奏。

历史证明了这种感觉：比利亚雷亚尔几乎没有在最近的正面交锋中取得任何胜利，上赛季的0-0已经表明，竞技可以平息他们的冲击，仍然可以创造一两个他们需要的重大转变时刻。

所以，是的，我很看好竞技不会输。天赋各占一半，但阵型向他们倾斜：更多的进攻场地，更坚固的中卫轴线，以及既能扰乱帕雷霍又能在禁区顶部伤害东道主的中场轮廓。如果他们克制住把每一次进攻都变成一个充满希望的传中的冲动，并相信第一次垂直传球，他们就会从La Cerámica中获得一些东西。

马略卡-阿拉维斯

我无法摆脱这样一种感觉：这场比赛是在马洛卡最糟糕的时刻来到的，而对阿拉维斯来说却是最好的时刻。当一个俱乐部花了一周的时间来灭火时——更衣室里出现分裂的传言，高级球员与经理发生争执，公开道歉，当地人群吹口哨——足球很少流动。

再加上西班牙U20国家队的维吉利和马斯卡雷尔和昆布拉这两大支柱的缺阵，这支球队的控球进程和防守权威都被剥夺了。你可以保证一个重置和一个四后卫，只要你喜欢；如果集体的信心是脆弱的，第一个错误的传球会把幽灵直接带回来。

与此同时，alav<s:1>看起来像一个成熟的团队。从六分中得八分，表现曲线呈上升趋势，赫塔菲的平局比1-1更能说明问题。库德特找到了一个紧凑的中卫，很难转移，乔尼·奥托在右路稳定，加尔卡姆斯和特纳格利亚在对攻中咄咄逼人，尤西在左路给他们适当的宽度。在前场，巴勃罗Ibañez一直是安静的节拍器，前几天晚上，安德格瓦拉在禁区内的时间安排完美，安东尼奥布兰科给了他们一个干净的第一个传球，以摆脱压力。

如果马略卡回到四人组，他们需要莫兰斯和萨穆·科斯塔之间的距离比我们最近看到的要干净得多，因为alavsamac一旦偷窃就会无情地攻击内部通道。注意第一个垂直球进入boy<s:1>的脚或进入空间托尼Martínez可以攻击前场的中后卫；即使是马里亚诺，尽管他很不稳定，也能占领防守球员，并为像格瓦拉这样的跑动者创造第二球。

然后是定位球。alavsamos在那里训练得很好：近门柱弹射，后门柱掩护，半解围后的第二次进攻。由于Son Moix的焦虑和马洛卡的组织在第一次接触后摇摆不定，这些重新开始可能是决定性的。

另一个反复出现的主题是他们的对手奇怪的效率：他们很少失球，但他们面对的是高价值的球。浓度比结构更重要。如果他们能纠正那些10秒的失误——头球不稳，远门柱上的射门失误——西维拉就不会一直在唯一一脚射正的球中把球从网中挑出来了。面对马洛卡队，他们的进球断断续续，经常需要几次触球才能在禁区内鼓起勇气，他们被第一次射门惩罚的几率自然更低。

心理学在这里很重要。马洛卡在整个2025年赢得了四场比赛，其中两场对阵降级球队，你可以从他们的肢体语言中看出来：腿很重，反应较慢，争论指向侧面而不是向前移动。

Arrasate关于战术上“背叛自己”的说法是诚实的，但该集团必须购买这种变化才能坚持下去。如果开场20分钟没有按照他们的方式进行，气氛就会转变，而这正是alav<s:1>人最舒服的时候——紧凑，必要时玩世不换，乐于让卡洛斯·维森特或阿比德在换防时跑动边后卫。

我希望库代特能重复最近的公式：将石块保持在30-35米的高度，压缩中心，并迅速向通道方向弹起。马略卡队将在达德和托瑞的带领下，努力维护自己的前场地位，但没有马斯卡瑞尔的存在和球队周围的噪音，维持压制陷阱和控制第二球似乎是一项艰巨的任务。

总的来说，我更相信alav<s:1>的结构和清晰度，而不是马略卡岛在暴风雨之夜的重置承诺。