Arsenal has navigated the early season without major stumbles. Their attacking play has not been dazzling, but efficiency has kept the points average high. Last week’s 3–0 home win over Nottingham was deserved given the flow of the match, and the Champions League opener in Bilbao demanded more effort but still produced a 2–0 away victory. The absence of Bukayo Saka has not yet crippled the Gunners, and the return of Martin Ødegaard would further boost the home side’s profile for Sunday.

“We have shown that we can control games even without some of our key players. But we know that against City we will need a perfect performance,” reminded Mikel Arteta in the pre-match press conference.

Manchester City, on the other hand, drew a huge amount of energy from their 3–0 derby win over Manchester United. Erling Haaland, who scored twice, was once again at the center of everything, but City’s off-the-ball play still left some question marks. In addition, Guardiola must juggle injury issues and a tight schedule: City will only begin their Champions League campaign on Thursday, leaving little time for recovery before their match on Sunday.

“We have injuries, that’s clear, but we cannot use that as an excuse. This game at Arsenal is a big test for all of us,” commented Pep Guardiola.

Arsenal entered the season rated stronger than City in terms of team power, and the first rounds have not significantly altered that view. Home advantage and extra rest raise Arsenal’s win probability to around 55 percent, even with their own injury concerns. City’s capacity is weakened, especially by the short turnaround and rotation pressures.

The match itself could turn cautious, as both teams are capable of controlling risks – particularly Arsenal. As mentioned in another statistical preview Arsenal defense has been super solid:

"Arsenal are the only Premier League team yet to allow a single big chance in 2025-26 – defined by Opta as a chance from which the attacking team would be expected to score – with every other side facing at least four."

Good luck!

阿森纳在赛季初期没有出现大的失误。他们的进攻并没有让人眼花缭乱，但效率使他们的平均得分保持在很高的水平。考虑到比赛的流畅性，上周主场3-0战胜诺丁汉是理所应当的，而在毕尔巴鄂的欧冠揭幕战需要更多的努力，但仍然取得了客场2-0的胜利。坂布kayo的缺席还没有影响到枪手，而马丁Ødegaard的回归将进一步提升主队在周日的形象。

“我们已经证明，即使没有一些关键球员，我们也能控制比赛。但是我们知道对阵曼城我们需要一个完美的表现，”阿尔特塔在赛前的新闻发布会上提醒道。

另一方面，曼城在德比中以3比0战胜曼联，获得了巨大的能量。厄林·哈兰德梅开二度，再次成为一切的中心，但曼城的无球打法仍然留下了一些问号。此外，瓜迪奥拉必须兼顾伤病问题和紧凑的赛程：曼城的欧冠比赛将在周四开始，在周日的比赛之前几乎没有时间恢复。

“我们有伤病，这很明显，但我们不能以此为借口。这场对阿森纳的比赛对我们所有人来说都是一个巨大的考验，”瓜迪奥拉评论道。

在球队实力方面，阿森纳本赛季的排名强于曼城，而首轮比赛并没有明显改变这一观点。主场优势和额外的休息将阿森纳的胜率提高到55%左右，即使他们自己也有受伤的问题。曼城的运力被削弱，尤其是受到短转短转的压力。

比赛本身可能会变得谨慎，因为两支球队都有能力控制风险——尤其是阿森纳。正如在另一个数据预览中提到的，阿森纳的防守超级稳固：

“阿森纳是唯一一支在2025-26赛季还没有给对手一个大机会的英超球队——Opta将这个机会定义为进攻球队有望进球的机会——而其他球队至少有四个机会。”

好运！