It's a late call from me, but odds on Necaxa raised up by 0.15 in last couple of hours and now I see excellent value on away side. In my opinion they have really strong chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Both teams played each other in 2021 twice and Necaxa recorded two wins with the same scoreline 1:0. They have good mental advantage.

Both teams finished Apertura very low. Necaxa finished at 14th place, two positions above Juarez, but if You look deeper - Necaxa played football on much higher level and that is very visible in the stats.

Juarez scored 14 goals - according to the expected goals scored model they should score 14.4. Necaxa scored 16 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 23.3. As You can see Necaxa played much better upfront. They had 4.6 shots on target per game (the highest number in whole league, together with Tigres). On the other hand Juarez had only 2.4 shots on target per game (the worst result in whole league, together with Mazatlan).

Necaxa as well looked better at the back as they conceded less goals and kept 3 clean sheets more.

Necaxa don't have any big absences and they signed very good player - striker Nicolas Castillo, he should be able to make difference.

Juarez is without their best scorer from Apertura, striker Gabriel Fernandez. This is huge blow for the team and have very bad impact on their performance today.

这是临场的分析，但在过去几个小时内，内卡萨的指数提高了 0.15，现在我看到了客队的价值。在我看来，他们有很大的机会在今天的比赛中至少取得一分。

两队在 2021 年交手两次，内卡萨以 1:0 的比分取得了两场胜利。他们有很好的心理优势。

两支球队都以非常低的成绩完成了秋季联赛。内卡萨排在第 14 位，比华雷斯高两名，但如果了解更深 - 内卡萨的足球水平要高得多，这在统计数据中非常明显。

华雷斯打进 14 球——根据预期进球模型，他们应该打进 14.4 球。内卡萨打进 16 球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该打进 23.3球。正如你所看到的，内卡萨在前场的表现要好得多。他们每场比赛有4.6次射正（与老虎并列第一）。另一方面，华雷斯场均只有 2.4 次射正（排名倒数第一）。

内卡萨在后场的表现也更好，他们丢球更少，并且比赛华雷斯多了 3 次零封。

内卡萨没有重要的缺席，他们签下了非常优秀的球员——前锋尼古拉斯·卡斯蒂略，他应该能够有所作为。

华雷斯缺少了最佳射手，前锋加布里埃尔费尔南德斯。这对球队来说是一个巨大的打击，对他们今天的表现产生了非常糟糕的影响。预测内卡萨不败。