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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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5/5 last WON in this league! $$$

2025-08-21

比赛分析

解读理由

FC Basel 1893 VS FC Copenhagen



Basel welcome FC Copenhagen in this UEFA Champions League qualification final round first leg clash at St. Jakob-Park in Basel early Thursday morning Beijing time. This is the best of UEFA's three international club competitions. Football enthusiasts and us serious football bettors can expect a match of pretty good quality level by this league's 4rd qualification round standards here! Most importantly we have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity. Indeed, we have won five picks in a row betting on the Champions League. Basel are a Swiss club, the visitors come from Denmark. FC Copenhagen, once again, won the Danish Superliga last season, taking 63 points. They scored 60 goals and allowed 33 goals. The 33 goals conceded was clearly the smallest number in this league. However, Midtjylland challenged them hard - taking 63 points and scoring four more goals. It was - by Copenhagen's standards - a good but not excellent season. Basel, on the other hand, were even better than I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. Indeed, they took a fine 73 points. Furthermore, they scored a stunning 91 goals and allowed 43 goals. Servette, who finished in 2nd place, grabbed only 63 points and had a score difference of only +11. I expect another strong season from Basel!


At the moment Basel are in 4th place in the Swiss Super League. Teams have played three or four games. Basel have taken six points - not fully meeting my expectations -  but can improve.. They have netted the ball eight times and have conceded seven goals. However, their number of goals against is 5.98. Basel have won three of their last four matches. With the expected line-ups, in front of their loud fans they should be bigger favourites than the bookies estimate. Indeed, the odds of around 2.40 on the Basel win are too high.  In their last game Basel crushed Biel 6-1 away from home in the Swiss Cup. Before this they were, in all honesty, disappointing against Lugano 1-3 on the road. I emphasize that Lugano performed above their normal level in this game.  However, the final score is a bit misleading. The ball possession was 51-49% and both teams recorded three big scoring chances. Lugano did have more total shots though - 16-11 to be precise. In round 4 Basel took a fine 4-1 win over Young Boys who played in the Champions League league stage last season. Basel generated much more in xG 3.04-0.44 to be precise. They also recorded a great 22 total shots. Moreover, Young Boys had no big scoring chances - Basel managed seven!


Copenhagen have won two of their last four games.  In their latest game, Superliga round 5,  they beat Nordsjaelland 3-1 on the road, priced around 1.75 to win by the bookies. The hosts' E. Salquist was sent off in the first half. I stress that the red card, of course, had a big effect on the game! The visitors' E. Fernandes was sent off in the 58th minute. Even so, the hosts generated 0.12 more in xG and had one more shot on goal and two more big scoring chances - 3-1 to be precise. The ball possession was 50-50%. Copenhagen did not fully convince me.. In Superliga round 4 Copenhagen lost to Aarhus 2-3 at home - as clear favourites on the betting market.  Even so, they do top the league table. In the last round of qualification they defeated Malmö, the Swedish Champions. However, I emphasize that  Malmö are having a very disappointing season and  on the betting market Copenhagen were clear favourites to qualify. In Sweden it was a very defensive clash - that ended in a goalless draw but at home Copenhagen won 5-0. Yes, they deserved to qualify but the 5-0 is massively misleading! In the 2nd leg in Copenhagen the xG numbers were 0.84-0.72! In round 2 of the qualifying they were not at their best but still beat Drita, a pretty small team, 3-0 on aggregate. Away from home they won only 1-0 despite Drita's L. Balaj's early red card. Both teams had nine total shots and Drita even recorded one more big scoring chance - 2-1. The xG numbers were 0.45-0.78. Copenhagen were priced around 1.50 to win this game.



GOOD LUCK!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

1893年巴塞尔对哥本哈根



北京时间周四凌晨,巴塞尔在巴塞尔圣雅各布公园球场迎来了欧冠资格赛最后一轮首回合对阵哥本哈根的比赛。这是欧足联三届国际俱乐部比赛中最好的一届。足球爱好者和我们认真的足球投注者可以期待一场相当高质量的比赛,以联赛第4轮资格赛的标准来看!最重要的是,我们还有一个非常有利可图的赌博机会。事实上,我们已经连续五次赢得了欧冠的赌注。巴塞尔是一家瑞士俱乐部,游客来自丹麦。哥本哈根足球俱乐部(FC Copenhagen)在上赛季的丹麦超级联赛中以63分的成绩再次夺冠。他们进了60球,丢了33球。33个失球显然是联赛中最少的。然而,米特日兰顽强地挑战了他们,他们拿到了63分,又进了4个球。按照哥本哈根的标准,这是一个不错但并不完美的赛季。另一方面,巴塞尔的表现甚至比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的还要好。事实上,他们被罚了73分。此外,他们进了91个球,丢了43个球。排名第二的塞尔维特只得到63分,与对手的差距只有+11分。我期待巴塞尔又一个强劲的赛季!


目前巴塞尔队在瑞士超级联赛中排名第四。球队已经打了三到四场比赛。巴塞尔银行已经拿了6分——没有完全达到我的预期——但还可以提高……他们进了8次球,丢了7个球。然而,他们的进球是5.98个。巴塞尔在最近四场比赛中赢了三场。有了预期的阵容,在他们喧闹的球迷面前,他们应该比博彩公司估计的更受欢迎。事实上,巴塞尔获胜的概率约为2.40,这太高了。在上一场比赛中,巴塞尔在瑞士杯客场6-1大胜贝尔。在此之前,说实话,他们对卢加诺的客场1-3令人失望。我要强调的是,卢加诺在这场比赛中的表现超出了他们的正常水平。然而,最终的分数有点误导。控球率为51比49%,两队都有三次大得分机会。卢加诺的总投篮次数更多,准确地说是16-11。在第4轮比赛中,巴塞尔以4比1的比分击败了上赛季参加欧冠联赛的年轻男孩队。准确地说,巴塞尔在xG 3.04-0.44中产生了更多。他们总共投了22次球。此外,年轻男孩队没有大的进球机会——巴塞尔队有7个进球!


哥本哈根在最近四场比赛中赢了两场。在他们最近的比赛,超级联赛第5轮,他们在客场3-1击败了北荷兰,博彩公司的胜率约为1.75。东道主的萨尔奎斯特在上半场被罚下。我要强调的是,那张红牌当然对比赛有很大的影响!客队的费尔南德斯在第58分钟被红牌罚下。即便如此,主队在上一场比赛中多创造了0.12个进球机会,多出了一次射门机会和两次进球机会——准确地说,是3比1。控球率是50% -50%。哥本哈根并没有完全说服我……在超级联赛第四轮,哥本哈根主场以2-3不敌奥胡斯队,这是博彩市场上最受欢迎的球队。即便如此,他们还是在排行榜上名列前茅。在最后一轮资格赛中,他们击败了瑞典冠军Malmö。然而,我要强调的是Malmö正经历着一个非常令人失望的赛季,在博彩市场上哥本哈根显然是出线的热门。在瑞典,这是一场非常防守的冲突——以0比0的平局结束,但在主场哥本哈根以5比0获胜。是的,他们配得上出线,但是5比0的比分太误导人了!在哥本哈根的第二回合比赛中,xG值是0.84-0.72!在预选赛的第二轮,他们虽然状态不佳,但仍然以总比分3-0击败了德里塔,一支相当小的球队。在客场,尽管德里塔·l·巴拉吉早早吃到红牌,但他们仅以1-0取胜。两支球队总共有9次射门,德里塔甚至创造了一个重要的得分机会- 2-1。xG值为0.45 ~ 0.78。哥本哈根的价格在1.50左右,以赢得这场比赛。



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