The Premier League’s London office found a real treat for the opening round of the season. A few words on the starting points of the match.

There’s been no shortage of headlines in Manchester, and it looks certain there will be plenty more to come — for better or worse. Last season began with Erik ten Hag and ended with Ruben Amorim. Amorim inherited a side that had totally lost its confidence and had been battered by the media for a long time. The turnaround never really came, even with the coaching change. Ten Hag was sacked at the end of October with United sitting 14th after nine games. Ruud van Nistelrooy took charge for a few matches, and then Amorim arrived in November. He oversaw 27 league games, finishing with a record of 7-6-14 — the 16th best record in that span. To be fair, towards the end the focus shifted strongly to the Europa League playoffs at the expense of the Premier League, and that story ended in a bitter defeat to Tottenham in Bilbao. United’s problems run much deeper than last season, and certainly not down to the skills of Ten Hag or Amorim alone. The gloom at Old Trafford has been long-standing, stemming especially from chaotic club management and a muddled recruitment policy.

Needless to say, Amorim has had a super important pre-season and faces an immensely crucial start to the new campaign. Over the summer he’s been given a new attacking trio at a cost of more than €200 million, and expectations are enormous. Cunha, Mbeumo, and Šeško have all shown they’re excellent players, but now they’ll be under huge pressure from every direction. Without the burden of European fixtures, United’s squad is capable of a top-six finish — but that requires a major shift away from the trajectory the team has been stuck in for a long time. Personally, United’s performances are one of the things I’ll be monitoring most closely at the start of the season.

Arsenal and the title race have gone hand in hand in recent years, but they haven’t managed better than second. Their expected goals conceded was again the lowest in the league last season, but their attacking play still wasn’t at the level needed to win titles. Their top scorer, Havertz, only managed nine goals — and everyone knows that’s nowhere near enough. Arsenal have strengthened over the summer, with Gyökeres, Zubimendi, Madueke and Nørgaard all adding quality and depth. Viktor Gyökeres carries major responsibility and pressure in the number nine role — he simply has to score plenty. All these signings can already be considered experienced players, which is a very good thing. Arsenal have by no means had too much experience in their squad, and that becomes especially clear in the decisive matches in spring.

As of Sunday morning, both teams’ injury situations are reasonably good. United are desperate to get Lisandro Martínez back in defence. The Argentine has been out since February with a knee injury and will miss several more weeks. Another absence is right-back Noussair Mazraoui, but Amorim’s 3-4-3 system allows him to use either Diogo Dalot or the more attacking option, Amad, who was having an excellent season last year before injury sidelined him for nearly three months from February. Arsenal’s squad is in excellent health heading into the match.

Assigning percentage chances for tonight’s game is not straightforward, with several uncertainties — mainly around gauging United’s true level. Personally, these kinds of matches are not my favourites from a betting perspective. That said, assessing United’s level at the start of the season probably isn’t easy for anyone else either. I’ve seen big differences in assessments of this match even among those who follow the league closely — and that’s completely natural.

With the current information (Sunday 10:45 am), Arsenal are about a 45% favourite in my book to win one of the Premier League’s most classic battles.

Good luck mates!

英超伦敦办事处为本赛季的首轮比赛找到了真正的享受。关于比赛的起跑点，我要说几句。

曼彻斯特从不缺少头条新闻，而且看起来肯定会有更多的头条新闻出现——不管是好是坏。上个赛季开始于埃里克·滕·黑格，结束于鲁本·阿莫里姆。阿莫里姆接手的是一个完全失去信心、长期受到媒体抨击的球队。即使换了教练，情况也没有真正好转。10月底，黑格被解雇，曼联在9场比赛后排名第14。范尼斯特鲁伊执教了几场比赛，然后阿莫里姆在11月到来。他监督了27场联赛，以7胜6负14负的战绩结束——在那段时间里排名第16。说句公道话，在赛季末，人们的注意力都集中在欧联杯的季后赛上，而不是英超联赛，而这个故事最终以在毕尔巴鄂输给热刺而告终。曼联的问题比上赛季要严重得多，当然不仅仅是滕哈格或阿莫林的技术问题。老特拉福德的阴霾由来已久，尤其是源于混乱的俱乐部管理和混乱的招募政策。

不用说，阿莫里姆已经有了一个非常重要的季前赛，并面临着一个非常关键的新赛季的开始。整个夏天，他以超过2亿欧元的价格得到了一个新的进攻三人组，人们对他的期望很高。库尼亚、姆博莫和Šeško都展示了他们是优秀的球员，但现在他们将面临来自各个方面的巨大压力。没有了欧洲赛程的负担，曼联的阵容有能力进入前六，但这需要球队从长期以来停滞不前的轨迹上做出重大转变。就我个人而言，曼联的表现是我在赛季开始时最密切关注的事情之一。

近年来，阿森纳和联赛冠军的争夺一直密切相关，但他们并没有比第二名做得更好。上赛季他们的预期失球数再次是联赛中最低的，但他们的进攻仍然没有达到赢得冠军所需的水平。他们的头号射手哈弗茨只进了9个球——每个人都知道这远远不够。阿森纳在夏天加强了实力，Gyökeres，祖比门迪，马杜洛克和诺加德都增加了实力和深度。维克多Gyökeres在9号的位置上承担着主要的责任和压力——他只需要进很多球。所有这些引援都可以被认为是经验丰富的球员，这是一件非常好的事情。阿森纳的阵容经验并不丰富，这一点在春季的决定性比赛中表现得尤为明显。

截至周日上午，两队的伤情都相当不错。曼联迫切希望里桑德罗Martínez回到后防线。阿根廷人自二月份以来一直因膝伤缺阵，他还将缺席几周的比赛。另一个缺阵的是右后卫马兹拉维，但阿莫里姆的3-4-3阵型让他可以使用迪奥戈·达洛特或者更具攻击力的阿马德，后者在去年的赛季表现出色，但从2月份开始，他因伤缺阵了近三个月。阿森纳的全队在比赛前都非常健康。

计算今晚比赛的概率并不简单，有几个不确定因素——主要是围绕着衡量曼联的真实水平。就我个人而言，从赌博的角度来看，这类比赛不是我最喜欢的。也就是说，在赛季初评估曼联的水平对其他人来说可能也不容易。我发现，即使是那些密切关注联赛的人，对这场比赛的评价也有很大的不同——这是完全正常的。

根据目前的消息（周日上午10点45分），在我的书中，阿森纳有45%的赔率赢得英超最经典的战斗之一。

祝你们好运！