1. SJK – GNISTAN

SJK didn’t perform at its best in the first qualifying round of the Conference League, as the Faroese side Klaksvík proved stronger with a 3–1 aggregate victory. In the league, SJK has avoided defeat in five consecutive matches; however, the team's overall level of play hasn’t matched the quality shown in the early part of the season.

Gnistan fought hard in their last home game and claimed a 2–0 win over Haka, despite playing most of the match with one man down. Their first-choice goalkeeper, Alex Craninx, was sent off and is suspended for the next two games. Otherwise, Gnistan’s lineup situation remains unchanged, and there’s still no sign of the hoped-for returns of Vertti Hänninen or Roman Eremenko to strengthen the central axis.

The short recovery time after SJK’s European game on Thursday shifts the probabilities slightly in Gnistan’s favor. However, the difference in quality between the teams still clearly favors SJK. A home win against a Gnistan side without their starting keeper happens with about 45% probability. My estimate is slightly more favorable for Gnistan than the market suggests.

2. FF JARO – ILVES

Jaro suffered a clear 1–3 defeat in their last match away against league leaders FC Inter. The end of Manasse Kusu’s loan spell is a big blow, and Jaro’s vulnerability in the central axis was further exposed with Sergei Eremenko sidelined due to injury. Bad news! Very bad news!

Ilves’ European campaign ended as expected, with top-quality Shakhtar Donetsk progressing 6–0 on aggregate. The second leg on Thursday in Tammela ended in a goalless draw, which was a respectable showing from Ilves, especially since head coach Joonas Rantanen rested several of his regular starters. Ilves still will face AZ in the Conference league next week, and I am afraid this is what Ilves players are thinking about, and Jaro is still a decent team at home!

3. HJK – AC OULU

HJK pulled off a true feat on Thursday night, overturning a 0–4 first-leg deficit in the Conference League by winning the second leg 5–0 at home. The qualifiers continue next Thursday with an away game against Bulgarian side Arda, so managing key players' workload will likely be necessary in Sunday’s home match.

AC Oulu secured a massive 3–2 home win over KTP in their last round. The full three points lifted the team off the bottom of the table — a position they arguably never deserved based on performances. The successful debut of new signing Shayon Harrison, brought in to boost the attack, also bodes well for a team that has struggled with finishing.

HJK is riding high after their incredible European match, but the 120-minute battle just two days before this league game likely forces squad rotation. If AC Oulu can deliver a solid defensive performance and find ways to hurt the hosts on transitions, taking points from Helsinki isn’t out of the question. Nonetheless, home advantage and a clear gap in quality make the favourite, but under these circumstances, it is impossible to say how big. It could be a let-down game this time.

Good luck!

1. SJK -土库曼斯坦

SJK在东部联赛预选赛第一轮没有发挥出最佳状态，法罗群岛球队Klaksvík以总比分3-1获胜。在联赛中，SJK已经连续5场不败；然而，球队的整体水平还没有达到赛季初的水平。

在上一场主场比赛中，尽管格尼斯坦队在比赛的大部分时间里都少了一个人，但他们还是以2:0战胜了哈卡队。他们的主力门将亚历克斯·克兰尼克斯（Alex Craninx）被红牌罚下，并将停赛两场。除此之外，格尼斯坦的阵容状况保持不变，仍然没有韦尔蒂Hänninen或罗曼·埃雷门科回归的迹象，以加强中轴。

SJK在周四的欧洲比赛后短暂的恢复时间使可能性略微偏向了格尼斯坦。然而，两支球队在质量上的差异仍然明显有利于SJK。主场战胜没有首发门将的阿富汗球队的概率约为45%。我的估计比市场暗示的要稍微有利一些。

2. 杰夫-伊尔维斯

在上一场客场对阵联赛领头羊国米的比赛中，亚罗惨遭1-3惨败。库苏租借期的结束是一个巨大的打击，在埃列门科因伤缺阵的情况下，雅罗在中轴线上的脆弱性进一步暴露出来。坏消息!非常坏的消息！

伊尔维斯的欧洲之旅如预期般结束，顶级球队顿涅茨克矿工总比分为6-0。周四在塔梅拉的第二回合比赛以一场0比0的平局结束，这是伊尔维斯的一场令人尊敬的比赛，特别是在主教练拉纳塔宁让几名主力首发球员休息之后。在下周的东部联赛中，伊尔维斯仍然要面对AZ，恐怕这就是伊尔维斯的球员们所考虑的，而哈罗在主场仍然是一支不错的球队！

3. hk - ac oulu

香港恒大在周四晚上完成了一项真正的壮举，在东部联赛首回合比赛中以5比0的比分逆转了0比4的落后，在主场以5比0获胜。预选赛将在下周四继续进行，客场对阵保加利亚阿尔达队，因此在周日的主场比赛中，管理好关键球员的工作量可能是必要的。

AC奥卢在上一轮比赛中主场3:2大胜KTP。整整三分让球队摆脱了积分榜垫底的位置——基于他们的表现，这个位置可以说是他们应得的。新签入的谢恩·哈里森的成功处子秀，增强了进攻，也预示着这支一直在努力射门的球队的好兆头。

在这场令人难以置信的欧洲比赛之后，jk正处于巅峰状态，但在这场联赛前两天进行的120分钟的战斗可能会迫使阵容轮换。如果AC奥卢能够提供稳固的防守表现，并找到方法在过渡中伤害东道主，从赫尔辛基拿分并不是不可能的。尽管如此，主场优势和明显的实力差距使他们成为夺冠热门，但在这种情况下，很难说有多大。这一次可能是一场令人失望的比赛。

好运！