Inter Turku VS IFK Mariehamn

Inter Turku welcome Mariehamn IFK (MIFK) for this Veikkausliiga battle at Veritas Stadion in Turku late Wednesday evening Beijing time. KuPS have 15 games,  SJK have played 14 games, the rest of the teams have played 12 (Inter) or 13 matches. This is the first tier of Finland but the level of this league is, as many of my fans are mist probably know by now, poor by European standards.. Football fans and us serious football bettors can expect a match of relatively mediocre level by this league's standards here! Most importantly, we have another very interesting betting opportunity here! We have won 14/20 last picks betting on this league.  Inter have performed well this season but have consequently become way "too hot" on the betting market! The team from Turku have been receiving a lot of praise in the Finnish (football) media.  Especially the extremely skilled, young Ivorian  attacking midfielder Axel Kouame, 21, has been very good and will most probably be sold to a much bigger club in the summer transfer window that just opened– for an estimated 0.7-1.3 million euros..  However, let's not forget that Inter did not even make it to the top-6 last season and are not among the top-3 teams on paper in Veikkausliiga.. They have, however, played well as a team and have a good head coach, Vesa Vasara. However, in my power rating Inter are in third place. This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven, excluding motivation, (abnormal) fatigue etc.  Probably very few professional football bettors ranked them in the top-3 before the season started.. What I'm implying here is that we should not overreact to their better-than-expected performances. Of course they deserve to be clear favourites but the current odds of around 1.20 on the home win are too low. We will take the MIFK +2.5 goals option here. Inter have scored 26  goals and have conceded seven goals in Veikkausliiga. They are in 2nd place in the standings with 26 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is smaller. Their number of xG per game is "only" 1.81. Inter's number of expected goals allowed (xGA) per match is significantly bigger than the actual number of nine - 1.18 to be precise.

Let's keep in mind that Inter have won "only" four of their last nine matches. In  their last game they faced Gnistan at home, as very clear favourites on the betting market, priced around 1.70 to win. the 90th+2 minute.  Taking Gnistan's mediocre level into account Inter's performance was a slight disappointment. Gnistan even recorded one more shot on goal. Inter did, however, have one more big scoring chance - 2-1 to be precise. Either team could have won the match. Indeed, The odds on the Inter win were, based on the events on the pitch, definitely too low - once again. Before this they defeated KTP, the worst team in terms of pure class in the Veikkausliiga - as massive favourites, of course. They won 5-0 in front of their fans and fully deserved the three points. However, they generated "only" 2.32 in xG. KTP were poor and very imbalanced defensively, but still recorded a pretty good nine total shots.. Before this Inter welcomed Haka - and were very clear favourites on the betting market. However, they had to settle for one point. Inter were strong and active in the first half but in the second half Haka improved significantly, were energetic, and in the end definitely deserved a point! With a little bit of luck they could even have taken all three points... Both teams recorded four shots on target but Inter did generate more in xG though..  On the 1st of June Inter beat Jaro, currently in 10th/12 place in the league table, as clear favourites on the betting market.. The final score in Jakobstad was 0-1. Especially taking into account Jaro's J. Brunell's red card in the 24th minute Inter's performance – even taking into account the poor (natural grass) pitch – did not excite me as a whole. Indeed, Inter had only 54% ball possession and recorded just three more total shots than the hosts. Moreover, Inter had only one big scoring chance and generated only 0.10 more in xG than Jaro. Before this Inter beat SJK, a team that had many very key players out, 1-0 on the road as clear favourites according to the bookmakers. Inter recorded only one big scoring chance but did unarguably defend well, allowing SJK none.. It was a solid, routine-like – but not all that impressive performance from the visitors.. SJK, too, had their chances to net the ball, recording 11 total shots.

MIFK are, in all honesty, not a strong team but have still been better than I would have expected in my in-depth preseason analysis! They are not among the very worst teams in the Veikkausliiga! However, the main rationale behind this pick is to oppose the overvalued Inter.. MIFK are in 9th place with a decent 14 points in their pocket. They have netted the ball 14 times and have conceded 29 goals. However, their number xG is 16.66 and xGA is "only" 27.01. They have won two of their last six games - losing 3/6. In their most recent game they lost to SJK 1-4 away from home - as big underdogs. SJK deserved to win but the final score is misleading! Indeed, the xG numbers were 1.22-0.32. Both teams had only one big scoring chance. However, SJK recorded many more total shots. Before this MIFK proved that they can upset any team in this league, beating the reigning champions, KuPS, 1-0 at home! Yes, they had some luck on their side but defended very well! KuPS recorded one more big scoring chance - 3-2 to be precise. Before defeating KuPS MIFK lost to VPS 1-5 at home. No, it was not, of course, a good performance - MIFK were oddly imbalanced on the pitch for most of the 90 minutes.. I emphasize that the final score is hugely misleading! MIFK recorded seven more total shots and corner kicks. The xG numbers were 0.67-1.75. Yes, MIFK are a somewhat erratic team..On the 10th of May MIFK took a point from Inter - through a 2-2 draw  at home. They recorded one more big scoring chance than Inter but the visitors did generate more in xG. However, based on the events on the pitch the odds of around 1.40 on the away win were too low.

GOOD LUCK!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

国际图尔库VS玛丽汉姆

北京时间周三晚，国际图尔库欢迎玛丽汉在都灵的维里塔斯球场参加与维克考斯利亚的比赛。up有15场比赛，SJK有14场比赛，其他球队有12场比赛（国米）或13场比赛。这是芬兰的第一梯队，但这个联赛的水平，正如我的许多球迷现在可能已经知道的那样，以欧洲的标准来看是很差的。足球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者可以期待一场以这个联赛的标准相对平庸的比赛！最重要的是，我们在这里有另一个非常有趣的赌博机会！我们在上一轮赌这个联赛中赢了14/20。国米本赛季表现不错，但结果却在博彩市场上变得“太热”了！这支来自图尔库的球队在芬兰足球媒体上得到了很多赞扬。尤其是技术精湛、21岁的科特迪瓦年轻攻击型中场阿克塞尔·库阿梅，他表现非常出色，很有可能在刚刚开启的夏季转会窗口被卖给一家更大的俱乐部——估计价格为70万至130万欧元。然而，让我们不要忘记，国米上赛季甚至没有进入前6名，而且在维考斯利加的纸面上也没有进入前三名。然而，他们作为一个团队打得很好，并且有一个很好的主教练，维萨·瓦萨拉。然而，在我的实力评级中，国米排名第三。这个评级反映了球队的纯粹等级，包括最好的首发11人，不包括动力，（异常）疲劳等。可能在赛季开始前，很少有职业足球投注者把他们排在前三名。我在这里的意思是，我们不应该对他们好于预期的表现反应过度。当然，他们应该是明显的热门，但目前主场获胜的赔率约为1.20，这太低了。我们将在这里采用MIFK +2.5目标选项。国米在维克考斯利加进了26球，丢了7球。他们以26分排名第二，但他们的期望积分（xPTS）要少一些。他们的场均xG数“只有”1.81。国际米兰每场比赛的预期失球数（xGA）明显大于实际的9个——准确地说是1.18个。

让我们记住，国际米兰在过去的9场比赛中“只”赢了4场。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场面对的是吉尼斯坦，在博彩市场上，吉尼斯坦显然是夺冠热门，赔率在1.70左右。第90 +2分钟。考虑到格尼斯坦的平庸水平，国米的表现有点令人失望。格尼斯坦甚至还有一次射正。然而，国米确实有一个更大的进球机会——准确地说是2-1。任何一个队都有可能赢得这场比赛。的确，根据球场上发生的事件，国米获胜的赔率确实太低了——再一次。在此之前，他们击败了KTP，这支在纯级别方面在维甲联赛中表现最差的球队——当然，他们也是大热门。他们在球迷面前5-0取胜，完全配得上三分。然而，他们在xG中“仅”生成2.32。KTP很差，防守很不平衡，但他们总共投了9次球。在此之前，国米欢迎了哈卡——他们在博彩市场上是非常明显的热门。然而，他们不得不接受一分。国米在上半场表现强劲而活跃，但下半场哈卡进步明显，精力充沛，最后绝对应该得到一分！如果运气好的话，他们甚至可以全取三分。两支球队都有4次射正，但国米在上个赛季创造了更多的射门机会。6月1日，国米击败了目前联赛排名第10 /12位的阿罗，成为博彩市场上最受欢迎的球队。雅克布斯塔德的最终比分是0-1。特别是考虑到布鲁内尔在第24分钟的红牌，甚至考虑到糟糕的（天然草地）球场，国米的表现并没有让我感到兴奋。事实上，国米的控球率只有54%，射门次数也只比东道主多3次。此外，国米只有一次重要的得分机会，在全场比赛中只比哈罗多出0.10个进球机会。在这场比赛之前，国米击败了SJK，这是一支有很多关键球员缺阵的球队，根据博彩公司的说法，国米在客场以1比0击败了SJK。国米只有一次进球机会，但无可争议的是防守很好，没有给SJK任何机会。这是一场稳定的、常规的表演，但并不是所有的表演都令人印象深刻。SJK也有机会破门，共射门11次。

说实话，mikk并不是一支强大的队伍，但在我的深度训练中，它仍然比我所期望的要好

在分析!他们不是联赛中最差的球队之一！然而，这个选择背后的主要理由是反对被高估的国米。mikk排在第9位，他们的口袋里有像样的14分。他们有14次进球，丢了29个球。然而，他们的数字xG是16.66,xGA“只有”27.01。他们在最近的六场比赛中赢了两场，输了三场。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们客场1-4输给了SJK，他们是大输家。SJK应该赢，但最后的比分是误导！实际上，xG值为1.22-0.32。两队都只有一次大的得分机会。然而，SJK记录了更多的总射门。在此之前，MIFK证明了他们可以在这个联盟中击败任何一支球队，在主场1-0击败卫冕冠军up ！是的，他们有一些运气，但防守非常好！库普斯又创造了一个大得分机会——准确地说是3比2。在击败up之前，MIFK在主场以1-5输给了VPS。不，这不是，当然，一个好的表现- MIFK奇怪的不平衡在球场上的大部分90分钟。我要强调的是，最终的分数是非常具有误导性的！MIFK总共有7次射门和角球。xG值为0.67 ~ 1.75。是的，MIFK是一支有点不稳定的球队，5月10日，MIFK主场2-2战平国米，从国米手中拿到一分。他们比国米多创造了一个进球机会，但客队在上个赛季创造了更多机会。然而，根据球场上发生的事件，客场获胜的赔率约为1.40，这太低了。

好运！