Gremio Novorizontino VS Amazonas FC

Novorizontino welcome Amazonas for this Serie B round 14 clash at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte early Monday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is relatively good by global standards - for a second tier I mean. Football fans and us serious bettors can expect a game of a little better mediocre quality by this league's standards. Most importantly we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here. We have won five of the last seven picks betting on this league. Last season Novorizontino finished in 5th place with 64 points. Amazonas performed at a decent level, ending up in 11th place with 52 points in their pocket. The teams last locked horns in October 2024 and Amazonas took a 1-0 win at home. The game, however, was somewhat balanced as a whole.  About a year ago it was a 1-1 draw at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi. I expect a pretty defensive clash here - consequently the goal expectancy is even a bit smaller than the bookies estimate. The Novorizontino defence has been pretty solid - they have allowed nine goals in this league so far. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is bigger. They have netted the ball 17 times. They are sometimes vulnerable to fast counter attacks. This is something Amazonas are, in fact, pretty good at! They would probably be happy with a draw. Novorizontino are of course the better team in terms of pure class here but surely - with the expected lineups - the current odds of around 1.50 on the home win are too slim. We will take the Amazonas +1.5 goals handicap option.

Performance-wise Amazonas have undoubtedly been a slight disappointment so far this season. They have grabbed 13 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is bigger. They can definitely improve as the season progresses! They have scored 11 goals and have conceded 18 goals in the Serie B. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Novorizontino are the bigger team here - but not by a wide margin. Indeed, their players have an estimated total market value of 10.70  million euros, which is a bit too high in my expert opinion.. Some 9.5 million would be a more accurate number. The Amazonas squad is valued about 7.5 million which is more or less correct.  The hosts have won five of their last 10 games. In their most recent match they were very disappointing! Indeed, they lost to Operario-PR 0-2 away from home - as favourites on the betting market. The hosts had 55% ball possession and recorded many more total shots, shots on goal (5-1) and big scoring chances - 3-0 to be precise. The Novorizontino offense lacked speed and creativity. The expected goals (xG) numbers were 2.01-0.57. Amazonas have improved recently, winning three of their last five matches. In their last game they beat Vila Nova FC 2-1 at home - as underdogs according to the bookies. Both teams had two big scoring chances but the visitors did record one more shot on goal. Before this they lost to Criciuma 2-3 away from home as very clear underdogs but their performance was not terrible - recording 11 total shots. The hosts did generate 0.86 more in xG though.. In round 11 Amazonas took a deserved narrow 1-0 win over Athletic Club at home. Indeed, they allowed the visitors only two shots on target and one big scoring chance - generating 0.63 more in xG.

GOOD LUCK!

Gremio Novorizontino VS Amazonas FC

北京时间周一凌晨，在新奥里藏特的豪尔赫·伊斯梅尔·德·比亚西球场，新奥里藏特欢迎亚马逊队参加这场乙级联赛第14轮的比赛。以全球标准来看，这个联赛的水平是相对不错的——我的意思是对于一个二线球队来说。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者可以期待一场以这个联盟的标准来说质量稍好一些的比赛。最重要的是，我们又有了一个赚钱的赌博机会。我们在过去七次赌这个联盟的选秀中赢了五次。上赛季Novorizontino以64分排名第五。亚马逊的表现还算不错，以52分的成绩排在第11位。两队上一次交锋是在2024年10月，亚马逊队在主场以1比0获胜。然而，这款游戏整体上还是比较平衡的。大约一年前，两队在比亚西球场1-1战平。我预计这将是一场非常激烈的防守冲突，因此预期进球数甚至比博彩公司估计的还要小。诺沃里桑蒂诺的防守相当稳固，他们在联赛中至今丢了9个球。然而，他们允许的预期目标数量（xGA）更大。他们已经把球打进了17次。他们有时容易受到快速反击。事实上，这是亚马逊人非常擅长的！他们可能会对平局感到高兴。从纯粹的级别来看，诺沃里桑蒂诺当然是更好的球队，但可以肯定的是，根据预期的阵容，目前主场获胜的1.50左右的赔率太小了。我们将选择亚马逊+1.5目标障碍选项。

到目前为止，亚马逊这一季的表现无疑有点令人失望。他们拿到了13分，但他们的期望积分（xPTS）更大。随着赛季的进行，他们肯定会进步的！他们在乙级联赛中进了11球丢了18球。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，诺沃里佐蒂诺在乙级联赛中实力更强，但差距并不大。事实上，他们的球员的总市值估计为1070万欧元，这在我的专家看来有点太高了。大约950万是更准确的数字。亚马逊队的价值约为750万美元，这或多或少是正确的。东道主在最近10场比赛中赢了5场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们非常令人失望！事实上，他们在客场0-2输给了opera - pr，尽管他们是博彩市场上最受欢迎的球队。主队拥有55%的控球率，射门次数、射正次数（5比1）和进球机会（准确地说是3比0）都更多。诺沃里桑蒂诺的进攻缺乏速度和创造力。预期目标（xG）值为2.01-0.57。亚马逊队最近有所进步，在最近五场比赛中赢了三场。在他们的上一场比赛中，他们在主场2-1击败了维拉诺瓦FC——根据博彩公司的说法，他们是弱者。两队都有两次大的得分机会，但客队又一次射门。在此之前，他们在客场2-3不敌克里丘马，显然处于劣势，但他们的表现并不糟糕，总共射门11次。不过，主机在xG中确实多生成了0.86。在第11轮比赛中，亚马逊在主场以1-0险胜竞技俱乐部。事实上，他们只给了客队两次射正的机会和一次重要的得分机会——在xG多创造了0.63个进球机会。

好运！