In a week's time the biggest transfer markets ever seen will start to happen in Newcastle, but today they will still need to play with what they have, and that is not much.

They are 19th in the table and it is a good reflection of their performances, in fact they have been the weakest

team so far according to xG-data. They have lost 10 games so far this season, but most worryingly 8 of them by at least 2 goals, including their latest 5.

It has not been much better at home, and today their biggest home advantage lies in the fact that the North of England is rather free of covid cases. Star player Allan Saint-Maximin should be back, but there are absentees in the midfield and defense.

United had to postponed games because of covid, but the good news are that all the half dozen quarantined players are back tonight and injured Pogba is the sole absentee for sure.

United have been 4th best away team behind the big three, and since getting rid of OGS their performances have strongly improved under Rangnick and they are not anymore a bunch of good individual players but a team, a collective unit.

I have no doubt that United win this, but they have had problems in killing the game, and for example although their last 3 games are wins, they are all by one single goal.

So this is not free money, but I see the odds are worth the risk.

Newcastle have conceded 41 goals, league's worst tally,and as that is backed by expected goal data there is a reason to believe United can score here 2,3 goals, and it should be enough to justify taking this bigger handicap.

一周后，有史以来最大的转会市场将开始在纽卡斯尔举行，但今天他们仍然需要依靠现有的阵容，实力较弱。

他们在积分榜上排名第19，这很好地反映了他们的表现，实际上他们一直是最弱的

根据预期数据，到目前为止他们已经输掉了 10 场比赛，但最令人担忧的是其中 8 场至少输了 2 球，包括最近的 5 场。

在主场也好不到哪里去，今天他们最大的主场优势在于球队几乎没有新冠病例。明星球员阿兰·圣马克西曼应该会回归，但中场和防守都有缺席。

由于冠状病毒，曼联不得不推迟比赛，但好消息是今晚所有六名被隔离的球员都回来了，受伤的博格巴肯定是唯一的缺席者。

曼联是仅次于英超三巨头的第四大球队，他们的表现在朗尼克的带领下有了很大的提升，他们不再是一群优秀的个人，而是一个团队，一个集体。

我毫不怀疑曼联可以赢下这场比赛，但他们在杀死比赛方面遇到了问题，例如他们最近3场比赛虽然赢了，但都是一球。

所以我认为本场值得冒险。

纽卡斯尔已经丢了 41 个球，这是防守最差的球队，而且由于预期进球数据的支持，有理由相信曼联可以在这里打进 2到3 个进球，预测曼联让球胜。