Pavel头像
盈利高手
俄罗斯职业体育分析师,是欧洲最知名的分析师之一。
  • 477

    方案

  • 3721

    粉丝

Free German value pick

2021-01-17

比赛分析

德甲

已完赛

星期日2021-01-17 22:30

解读理由

As there's been no love in my picks recently, I am going with a free pick here, in attempt to make up for earlier losses. However, I must admit, there's been close to no errors in the picks - it simply did not convert into wins on the pitch. 

Freiburg's amazing run and Bayern's recent struggles have opened up really intriguing odds on the home win here. Reigning champions are indeed going through a hard period, losing back to back games and crushing out of the cup to Bundesliga II side Holsten Kiel. But regardless of all these troubles, the class is still there with Bayern. Flick's aventerous tactics always made me wonder just how efficient this could be in the long run, especially once the team is not 100% fit. And here come the times, where Bayern is exactly that - not that fit to maintain the high defensive line, press for 90 minutes and get Neuer to clean up all the errors in defense. The question still stands, if these issues at Bayern are temporarily or they are turning permanent under Flick, as, evidently, he has no other vision of football rather than the one that won Bayern all possible trophies last season. 
There are no real squad issues for hosts ahead of the Sunday game - only 3rd choice striker Zirkzee is missing for sure through suspension. Kicker.de are confident all the main stars are starting for Bayern here, including Kimmikh, Goretzka and Gnabry - all of who whoscored.com, for example, have as doubts. I lean to trust local resource kicker.de more, obviously.
Freiburg's been delivering the form of their lives at the moment, but in reality, of course, they are not that great as the record suggests. Just take a look at the schedule they've had and it will explain a lot to why they are riding this high in the table at the moment - relegation zone teams Koln and Schalke, collapsing and COVID struck Hoffenheim, another relegation contender Arminia and the fortunate win against Hertha. That concludes the list of 5 wins. Prior to this insane period Freiburg had a total of 1 (!) victory to their name - in 10 rounds. 
Visitors are at full strength here.

I usually love such games, where an in-form underdog faces a wounder "giant". Bayern's hurt and gain extra motivation from the humiliating defeat vs. Holsten Kiel. Flick will not even need to hold a pre-match chat here - motivation is not required. 

观点仅代表作者本人,不代表本站立场。
作者在平台、组织、网站等发表的言论,意见,倾向等都只是作者本人的观点,和平台,组织网站等第三方没有关系。