Nacional Montevideo VS Atletico Nacional Medellin

Nacional Montevideo challenge Atletico Nacional Medellin in this Copa Libertadores round 6 clash at Gran Parque Central in Montevideo early Thursday morning Beijing time. This is the best South American international club competition. The hosts are a Uruguayan team, the visitors come from Colombia. Here we can expect a game of somewhat mediocre quality by this competition's standards here.. Most importantly, we have yet another fine betting opportunity here. My fans and I have won eight of the last 10 picks betting on this league! This is the last round of play. If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. Nacional are in 4th (last) place in the Group F standings. They have only four points to their account. Furthermore, they have a poor score difference! Indeed, they have scored only a decent six goals but their defence has been far from solid. Yes, they have allowed 10 goals in five matches. The hosts' defensive structure has not been good enough for this level and (too) many silly individual mistakes have happened.. The top-2 teams will qualify for the 1/8-finals. The team that finishes in 3rd place will qualify for the 1/16-finals. Bahia, in 3rd place, have a score difference of 4:5 so Nacional's situation is very difficult.. The bookmakers see the visitors as only slim favourites here but I disagree! The visitors should be solid favourites and we will place a bet on them with the +0.5 goals handicap.

Medellin top the group with nine points in their pocket. They have netted the ball seven times but their number of expected goals (xG) is bigger.. They have secured a top-2 place and some squad rotations by their head coach could happen here. However, the bookies seem to give this factor too much emphasis.. They have a strong, pretty deep squad, full of talented players. According to Transfermarkt.com, a well-known and respected source, Medellin are the bigger team here – by a decent margin. Indeed, their players have an estimated total market value of some 26 million euros. However, some 32-33 million would be a more realistic number. The Montevideo squad is valued at some 18 million euros but this is, in my expert opinion, a bit too high. The teams locked horns in round 1, in April and Medellin took an impressive 3-0 win. They had a whopping 75% ball possession and recorded a fine 22 total shots. They also recorded many more shots on goal and big scoring chances and generated 1.54 more in xG than the visitors. Medellin have won three of their last five games. However, in their last game they lost to Junior 2-3 at home. It was a Colombian Primera A Apertura round 20 battle. Junior are currently in 3rd place in the standings whereas Medellin occupy the 5th place. I want to highlight that Medellin were very unlucky to lose the game!  Indeed, they had a close to 70% ball possession and recorded 18 more total shots on four more shots on target than the visitors. They also had six more corner kicks and generated 0.86 more in xG. The hosts have won two of their last three games. In their most recent match they beat Progresso, a lame team, 1-0 at home, priced around 1.25 to win. I was not impressed with Montevideo's performance as a whole – especially (not) their offense.. Many of their attacks were too slow and predictable.. The visitors had only 31% ball possession but still recorded one more shot on goal – 3-2 to be precise. In their last Copa Libertadores game they were disappointing, losing to Internacional, a Brazilian team, 0-2 at home. The visitors generated much more in xG – 2.01-0.65 in this game which the bookies expected to be more or less a coin toss.. The visitors also had four big scoring chances – allowing Montevideo none! Yes, the ball possession was almost 50-50% though but the Brazilians recorded three more shots on goal.

GOOD LUCK!

蒙得维的亚国家VS麦德林国家竞技

北京时间周四凌晨，在解放者杯第6轮比赛中，蒙得维的亚国家足球队将在蒙得维的亚中央大公园球场迎战麦德林国家马竞。这是南美洲最好的国际俱乐部比赛。东道主是乌拉圭队，客队来自哥伦比亚。在这里，我们可以期待一场比赛的质量有些平庸的比赛在这里比赛的标准。最重要的是，我们还有另一个很好的赌博机会。我和我的球迷在过去的10次选秀中赢了8次！这是最后一轮比赛了。如果两队在赛季结束时得分相等，则得分差将成为决胜局。国家在F组排名第四（最后）。他们的账户上只有四分。此外，他们的得分差距也很小！事实上，他们只进了不错的6个球，但他们的防守还远远不够稳固。是的，他们在五场比赛中丢了10个球。东道主的防守结构还不够好，而且（太多）愚蠢的个人失误发生了……前2名的球队将进入1/8决赛。获得第三名的队伍将有资格参加1/16决赛。巴伊亚排在第三，他们的分差是4:5，所以国家的处境非常困难。博彩公司认为客队在这里只有微弱的胜算，但我不同意！客队应该是最受欢迎的球队，我们将以+0.5的胜率对他们进行下注。

麦德林队以9分排名小组第一。他们有7次进球，但他们的预期进球数（xG）更多…他们已经获得了前2名的位置，主教练可能会在这里进行一些阵容轮换。然而，博彩公司似乎过于强调这个因素。他们有一支强大的阵容，充满了才华横溢的球员。根据Transfermarkt.com，一个知名且受人尊敬的消息来源，麦德林在这里是更大的球队——以相当大的差距。事实上，他们的球员估计总市值约为2600万欧元。不过，大约3200万至3300万是比较现实的数字。蒙得维的亚队的身价约为1800万欧元，但以我的专业意见，这有点太高了。两队在4月的第一轮交锋中，麦德林队以3-0大胜。他们有高达75%的控球率，总共射门22次。他们的射门和进球机会也比客队多，全场进球比客队多1.54次。麦德林队在最近五场比赛中赢了三场。然而，在上一场比赛中，他们在主场以2比3输给了少年队。这是哥伦比亚甲级联赛第20轮比赛。Junior目前排名第三，而Medellin排名第五。我想强调的是，麦德林队输掉比赛非常不幸！事实上，他们的控球率接近70%，并且比客队多射门18次，射正4次。他们的角球次数也多了6次，在xG上的得分也多了0.86。东道主在最近三场比赛中赢了两场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场以1比0击败了一支实力不强的球队Progresso，胜率在1.25美元左右。我对蒙得维的亚的整体表现并不印象深刻，尤其是他们的进攻。他们的许多攻击都太慢，太容易预测。客队只有31%的控球率，但仍然有一次射门，准确地说是3比2。在上一场解放者杯比赛中，他们表现令人失望，在主场0-2输给了巴西国家队。在这场比赛中，客队在xG - 2.01-0.65的得分要高得多，博彩公司预计这场比赛或多或少是一场掷硬币的比赛。客队也有4次进球的机会，但是蒙得维的亚没有得分！是的，控球率几乎是50%，但巴西人又射门三次。

好运！