Leicester vs Southampton

I'm a little surprised to see the bookies having Leicester as this clear favorites here. Leicester are only a little stronger team than Southampton in my power ratings. Yes, Leicester have been playing well but they have also been a little lucky and pretty effective in making the most of the scoring chances. My point is that I expect them to drop a bit on the table as the season goes on, quite possibly outside top6.

Southampton have played well lately and are not far from a top4 position in the tighter for decades English Premier League. Defensively Southampton have been excellent recently, keeping three clean sheets in a row before this game and even beating the mighty Liverpool in their previous match. Liverpool was the better team in that clash but Southampton played in an organized and disciplined way - their win was not just lucky but on the contrary can be seen as a "warning" for top6 teams - Southampton can beat anyone this season. Leicester have scored 11 goals in their last five games in all competitions which is a good number of course but I think Southampton will make them work very hard for the goals today. Home advantage is marginal due to the fact that there are no spectators and it is worth noticing that Southampton are unbeaten in seven consecutive away games in the Premier League.

To sum up a balanced match is expected and we go for the slight underdog taking Southampton +1 which means the pick is a winner if it is a draw or Southampton wins. The probability estimation for this scenario is 55%

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莱斯特vs南安普顿

看到机构把莱斯特列为最受欢迎的一方，我有点惊讶。在我的力量等级中，莱斯特队只比南安普顿强一点点。是的，莱斯特踢得很好，但他们也有点幸运，在充分利用进球机会方面相当有效。我想说的是，随着赛季的进行，我预计他们的排名会下降一些，很可能会排在前6名之外。

南安普顿最近踢得很好，在几十年来竞争激烈的英超联赛中离前四名不远了。南安普顿最近的防守非常出色，在本场比赛之前保持了三场不失球，甚至在他们之前的比赛中击败了强大的利物浦。利物浦在那场比赛中表现更好，但南安普顿表现得很有组织，纪律严明——他们的胜利不仅仅是幸运，相反，可以被看作是对前6强球队的一个“警告”——南安普顿可以在本赛季击败任何球队。莱斯特在过去的五场比赛中打进了11个进球，当然这是一个不错的数字，但我认为南安普顿会让他们为了进球而努力。由于没有观众，主场优势并不明显，而且值得注意的是，南安普顿在英超联赛中连续七场客场不败。

总而言之，一场平衡的比赛是意料之中的，我选择南安不败，这意味着如果是平局或南安普顿获胜，我们就命中了。这种情况的概率估计是55%