Sturm Graz VS Red Bull Salzburg

Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg lock horns in this Bundesliga (Championship Group) round 30 clash at Merkur-Arena in Graz early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the 1st tier of Austrian football. Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors can expect a game of elite quality by this league's standards here! Indeed, this season Sturm Graz have been even better than I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis., The bookies, for some reason, still do not seem to respect them enough.. In the regular season (22 rounds of play) they took a great 46 points. They recorded the ball 51 times and conceded 28 goals. Yes, their number of expected goals (xG) is somewhat smaller though. Salzburg have won this league many times in recent years but this season has been a big disappointment! Yes, they should have the potential to improve but the bookies seemingly give this potential too much emphasis. The fact is, that even on paper they are not as strong this season as they were in the last 3-4 seasons. They played in the UEFA Champions League league stage but were even worse than expected. In the regular Bundesliga regular season they took 38 points, ending up in 3rd place. They scored 33 goals and allowed 22 goals. At the moment they are four points behind Graz..

Graz have lost only two home games in this league this season. With the expected lineups (both teams have several absences) – taking the substantial home advantage into account – I must disagree with the bookies who see the visitors as the favourites here. Odds of around 2.50 on the away win are much too low so the Graz +0.5 goals handicap option is the obvious smart bet here! Let's remember that Salzburg have won only one of the last five games between these two teams.  Moreover, Graz won 3/5 these head-to-head matches!  Last month Graz beat Salzburg 2-1 away from home – despite their player G. Wuthrich being sent off in the 63rd minute.. Graz's Kiteishvili scored the winning goal in the 70th minute – proving that Graz are a team “made of steel” and have a fine chance of winning the championship! Despite the red card Salzburg generated only 0.39 more in xG.

Salzburg have won only one of their last three games. In their most recent match they beat Austria Vienna 2-0 at home, priced around 1.80 to win by the bookies. They recorded one more big scoring chance – 3-2 to be precise. They deserved the three points, having generated 1.03 more in xG. However, Austria Vienna were worse than usual in this game. Before this they were very disappointing, losing to Wolfsberger AC 1-2 on the road. Salzburg were, once again, overrated on the betting market, priced around 1.85 to win. Yes, they had 76% ball possession but the hosts recorded many more shots on goal and big scoring chances. They also generated marginally more in xG than the visitors. Sturm Graz have lost only two of their last 10 games. In their most recent match they were excellent - especially defensively – despite beating BW Linz only 1-0 away from home. Graz recorded a very strong 21 total shots – 15 more than the hosts! Moreover, Graz did not allow Linz a single shot on goal. The xG numbers were very imbalanced - 2.55-0.33 in Graz's favour!

GOOD LUCK!

格拉茨VS萨尔茨堡红牛

北京时间周六凌晨，德甲冠军小组赛第30轮，格拉茨风暴队和萨尔茨堡红牛队将在格拉茨的默克球场展开激战。这是奥地利足球的第一梯队。足球爱好者和我们认真的投注者可以期待一场精英级的比赛，以这个联赛的标准！事实上，这个赛季的格拉茨风暴比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的还要好。由于某种原因，博彩公司似乎仍然不太尊重他们。常规赛（22轮比赛）他们拿到了46分。他们控球51次，丢了28个球。是的，他们的预期目标数量（xG）要少一些。萨尔茨堡近年来多次赢得联赛冠军，但本赛季非常令人失望！是的，他们应该有提高的潜力，但博彩公司似乎过于强调这种潜力。事实是，即使在纸面上，他们本赛季也没有过去3-4个赛季那么强大。他们参加了欧冠联赛，但比预期的还要糟糕。在德甲常规赛中，他们拿到了38分，排名第三。他们进了33球，丢了22球。目前他们落后格拉茨4分。

格拉茨本赛季在联赛中只输掉了两场主场比赛。考虑到预期的阵容（两队都有几次缺阵）——考虑到主场优势——我必须不同意博彩公司认为客队是最受欢迎的球队。客场获胜的赔率约为2.50，这太低了，所以格拉茨+0.5个进球障碍选项显然是明智的选择！让我们记住萨尔茨堡在这两支球队之间的最近五场比赛中只赢了一场。此外，格拉茨赢得了3/5的正面比赛！上个月格拉茨客场2-1击败萨尔茨堡，尽管他们的球员乌斯里奇在第63分钟被罚下。格拉茨的基泰什维利在第70分钟打进致胜一球，证明了格拉茨是一支“钢铁做的”球队，有很好的机会赢得冠军！尽管吃到红牌，萨尔茨堡在第二赛季的得分只增加了0.39。

萨尔茨堡最近三场比赛只赢了一场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场以2比0击败奥地利维也纳，博彩公司的胜率约为1.8英镑。准确地说，他们又创造了一个大得分机会——3比2。他们理应得到三分，在上一场比赛中他们又多创造了1.03分。然而，奥地利和维也纳在这场比赛中表现得比平时差。在此之前，他们非常令人失望，客场1-2输给了沃尔夫斯堡。在博彩市场上，萨尔茨堡队再次被高估，其获胜概率在1.85左右。是的，他们有76%的控球率，但主队的射门次数更多，得分机会也更多。他们在xG上的产出也略高于访客。格拉茨在过去的10场比赛中只输了两场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们表现出色，尤其是防守，尽管客场1-0击败了BW林茨。格拉茨总共射门21次，比东道主多15次！此外，格拉茨没有让林茨一脚射门。xG的数据非常不平衡——2.55比0.33对格拉茨有利！

好运！