Inter Milan and Bayern Munich will meet in what promises to be a tense second leg at the San Siro. The Italians hold a 2-1 advantage from the first leg, and with their current form at home, they are firmly in control. Inter are unbeaten in 14 straight Champions League home matches and have developed a knack for killing the pace and creativity of even the strongest opponents. That’s exactly what they did in Munich, and with the crowd behind them, they’ll be confident in finishing the job. Bayern’s biggest challenge isn’t just Inter’s pressing and structure—it’s themselves. Despite having the highest expected goal difference in this season’s Champions League (+19.3), they’ve underperformed significantly in front of goal. They’ve scored just 32 from an xG of over 44 across the campaign, and this wastefulness may cost them dearly. In six of their 13 CL games this season, Bayern scored one goal or fewer, and now they need at least one goal just to stay alive. Inter, meanwhile, have been clinical. Lautaro Martínez is in elite form, with seven CL goals this season, and their overall tactical execution in knockout ties has been close to flawless. Historically, when Inter win the first leg, they almost always go through (21 out of 23 times). The data and trends all favour the home side. Bayen defence has allowed too many chances in recent games so I don't think Inter will miss chances to outscore Bavarians

国际米兰和拜仁慕尼黑将在圣西罗球场进行第二回合的比赛。意大利人从首回合开始就以2-1领先，以他们目前在主场的状态，他们牢牢控制着局面。国米在欧冠主场连续14场保持不败，并且已经掌握了一种扼杀最强对手的速度和创造力的技巧。这正是他们在慕尼黑所做的，在观众的支持下，他们将有信心完成这项工作。拜仁最大的挑战不仅仅是国米的压力和结构，而是他们自己。尽管他们在本赛季的欧冠联赛中拥有最大的预期净胜球（+19.3），但他们在门前的表现却明显落后。他们在整个赛季中只得到32分，平均每场得分超过44分，这种浪费可能会让他们付出高昂的代价。在本赛季的13场欧冠比赛中，拜仁有6场进1球或更少，现在他们至少需要进1球才能保住性命。与此同时，国米表现得很冷静。劳塔罗Martínez处于巅峰状态，本赛季打进了7个欧冠进球，他们在淘汰赛中的整体战术执行近乎完美。从历史上看，当国米赢得首回合比赛时，他们几乎总是晋级（23次中有21次）。数据和趋势都有利于主队。拜仁的防守在最近的比赛中给了太多的机会，所以我不认为国米会错过得分超过巴伐利亚人的机会