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足球分析师
塞尔维亚人,职业体育玩家。
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Backing champions as underdogs

2021-12-01

比赛分析

法甲

已完赛

星期四2021-12-02 04:00

解读理由

Französische Ligue 1: Dank "König" und "Trüffelschwein" - Lille vor dem  Titelgewinn - Ligue 1 - Fußball - sportschau.de
In French Ligue 1 we always used to see many draw games and this game today has the smell of ending in a draw too. Generally speaking, I like the chances of still current French champions to avoid the loss here, odds are really good to go with this bet. 

Rennes have really fantastic this season, as they sit right now second-placed in Ligue 1 behind Paris Saint Germain. After 15 games, they surprised everyone with the record made so far: 8-4-3 with 26 goals scored and 12 conceded. Before the season started, Rennes have invested into their squad well but such a result is a long over the expectations they had before the season started. However, it's realistic to expect Rennes to slip down the table in the next rounds, and they will hardly repeat this level anymore in the season. They don't seem to have that power to resist all the hard games for the whole season while playing both in Europe and in the domestic league.

Lille is the current champion of France but after the glorious previous season, the team from Lille is not doing so good job in this season. Because of previous injuries, transfers, coaching change, relaxation in the squad after a big season, also because of focus on Champions League competition, Lille simply couldn't repeat the level of what they did in the 2020/21 campaign. At the moment Lille is the 13th placed side in Ligue 1 with a 4-6-5 record and even negative goal difference balance: 19-22! Even they are winless in Ligue 1 since 3rd October but is worth mentioning that they managed to win over Sevilla on the road in the Champions League group stage and versus Salzburg recently. So, all this shows where the focus of Lille was until now. But, they have to take care of league tasks and produce some results in domestic competition as soon as possible. Today is the perfect match-up for backing Lille not to lose because they are not favorites before the game and this role goes to home team. Anyway, Lille style doesn't like the role of favorite in general and are doing better when the team has less ball possession than the opponent, so they can use fast wingers and do the offensive transition more often, what was their key weapon to beat the rivals. 

No matter how the standings look like right now, Rennes may have a better season but are not the better team than Lille. In spite of that, I will go with the X2 option that looks safe in my eyes. Lille are undefeated against Rennes in their last 4 mutual meetings and the recent tradition could continue today. 
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