Real Madrid have a 5-1-0 saldo from their latest 6 games and they are deservedly on top of the table, but the only times from those last 6 games where they have been the better side on the pitch have been vs promoted Vallecano and the bottom-3 club Granada. For example in their win over Sevilla last week they hardly even deserved a draw as they were outplayed for most of the game and needed help from Sevilla keeper Bono.

Bilbao side have two more days of rest here, and to be quite honest their last 6 matches 1-4-1 do not fully raise confidence, but if Real have been somewhat lucky and also have the brilliant individuals to win the games the Bilbao side have been rather unlucky the whole of the season, even if they stand at 8th place with 20 points.

The xG-data says they could be at 24 points by now - Real expected points are 26 - but they have been let down by their finishing as they have scored only 13 goals so far. Again, the xG-models suggest they should be at 20 scored goals so it is easy to pinpoint where the key problem is.

It is the strikers. Iñaki Williams is not a good scorer and never will be, Raul Garcia is very onesided big man in the box, Muniain should shoot more, and the most blanks have so far come from midfielder Berenguer who has a lot to more to show, he is about to score his first goals anytime soon.

To be more precise the goal scoring in open play is the big worry of Bilbao. They have created worth of 16 goals from open play so far. The result? They have scored 6 goals from open play!

Real defense was at times all over the place against Sevilla. Carvajal made several massively bad defensive errors, and for those there is a route to punish.

Injury situation a good one in both camps. Real miss Bale, Ceballos, possibly Valverde. Bilbao will have to do without centreback Martinez due suspension.

There is a risk of a lack of concentration at Real as they have played a lot recently and I wonder if the aging midfield is starting at all here. Whatever, the visiting Bilbao side has performed in a top-6 level all season, despite the goals, and they can challenge anyone, even away.

1-1

皇家马德里在最近的 6 场比赛中取得5胜1平 的成绩，他们当之无愧地名列榜首，但过去 6 场比赛中他们在球场上表现更好的比赛是对阵升班马巴列卡诺和排名倒数第三的格拉纳达俱乐部。在上周战胜塞维利亚的比赛中，他们甚至配不上平局，因为他们在比赛的大部分时间都处于劣势，需要塞维利亚门将布奴的帮助。

毕尔巴鄂这边还有两天的休息时间，他们最近6场1胜4平1负的成绩并没有完全提升信心，但毕尔巴鄂方面整个赛季都相当不走运，即使他们以20分排在第8位。预期进球现在他们现在可能是 24 分——皇马是 26 分——但他们对他们的终结感到失望，因为他们到目前为止只进了 13 个进球。同样，预期模型显示他们应该有 20 个进球，所以很容易找出关键问题所在。

前锋。伊纳基·威廉姆斯不是一个好得分手，劳尔·加西亚在禁区内是一个比较单一的大个子，穆尼安应该多射门，而迄今为止最重要的缺席来自中场贝伦格尔，他有很多东西要展示。

更准确地说，对攻战的比赛进球是毕尔巴鄂的一大担忧。到目前为止，他们已经从公开比赛中创造了 16 个进球机会。结果？他们只打进了6球！

皇马在面对塞维利亚的防守有时不在状态。卡瓦哈尔犯了几个严重的防守失误。

两队的伤病情况都不错。皇马的贝尔，塞瓦略斯，可能还有巴尔韦德缺席。毕尔巴鄂将缺少中后卫马丁内斯的情况下进行停赛。

由于皇马最近打了很多比赛，所以存在注意力不集中的风险，老化的中场可能也会出现问题。不管怎样，毕尔巴鄂球整个赛季的表现配得上打进前六名，他们可以挑战任何人，即使是客场。

比分参考1-1