Atletico Madrid vs AC Milan

Atletico Madrid hosts Milan at Wanda Metropolitano for this UEFA Champions League Round 5 clash early Thursday morning Beijing time. The stakes are high for the hosts as they have a genuine chance of finishing in the second place in this group. Milan will very probably finish last in this group as they have only one point in the bank and the way they have performed so far has not convinced me at all! Let's take a closer look at this match..

Atletico Madrid have been slightly disappointing this season in general. I expected more.. However, now they have their elite striker French Antoine Griezmann back which helps a lot! I have written about his importance for Tico many times before and still want to highlight his meaning for their offense.. They do not have too many quality strikers on the bench but with Luis Suarez they are a deadly duo and will probably be too good for Milan to handle here.. In the Spanish La Liga the hosts have been "okay" with 26 points in the bank and are currently in the fifth place but only four points behind the leaders - Real Madrid. Their goal difference is good - 23:13 and they have lost just one match so far. Their defense has not been as solid this season as before but still good and I think Simeone's team can still improve in this area. In the Champions League I indeed would have expected a little more from them so far. They should have won Porto at home a month ago - but it was 0-0 draw despite Tico being the better team with 55% ball possession and more scoring chances, shots on target, attacks and dangerous attacks. However, Porto are a good team and advanced all the way to the quarter-finals last spring in the Champions League but were ousted by the reigning champions, Chelsea. They did, however, even grab a win in London in the second leg! We must also remember that Atletico have already faced dominant group leaders, Liverpool, twice so far in this group and did lose both matches but created more expected goals than Liverpool in the home match despite Griezmann being sent off in the 52nd minute and Liverpool having close to 70% ball possession. In England  three weeks ago Liverpool did deserve the 2-0 but Atletico's match was once again ruined by a Felipe's red card in the first half.. I believe the match would have been a tight one without the sending off.. The hosts have potential for a lot better than we have seen from the lately and are clearly better by raw class than Milan. They badly need three points this one to fight for the second place and will probably be a little more aggressive and take more risk than usually in front of their loud fans which increases their chances of winning  - or losing of course  - and decreases the probability of a draw. Porto have one more point than them so far and have a good chance to take something from Liverpool today as Pool will likely rotate their players heavily. Also, they trip to Porto will not be an easy one for sure..

Milan, indeed, are clearly the worst team in this group! Worse than many analysts and the betting market seem to believe. This is probably mainly because of their good record in Serie A.. They are currently in second place with 32 points and just one loss so far. This loss came last week-end versus a mediocre team Fiorentina 3-4 away from home. However, the standings flatter Milan heavily! They have scored almost ten points more than they should have in terms of expected point!. This is a huge number/difference! They are clearly worse than the hosts in all areas of the game and the way they defended versus Fiorentina was horribly bad! In fact, they have not defended well even in many matches they have won in their domestic league.. Whilst they can for sure improve I'm not sure if it will be enough.. They would probably need luck or Tico to be very inefficient to get even a point here.. They were lame in their latest Champions League match too at home versus Porto recording only two shots on goal. Porto were clearly the better team - I have watched the match twice! All key statistics prove this too.

To sum up, Atletico have an excellent chance of beating the Italians here. Tico -0.5 goals handicap is my pick to extend my winning streak!