Wales host Belgium at Cardiff City Stadium for this final round of FIFA World Cup 2022 group stage qualification matches. Belgium have already won the group but Wales have considerable stakes for this match. Let's take a closer look..

Indeed, going into early Wednesday's Beijing time final round of matches Wales and Czech Republic are in a fierce battle for the second place in this group. It is worth remembering that Wales are already guaranteed a playoffs place for next year having won their Nations League group earlier but, to have any chance of a home draw, they must finish second in their World Cup qualifying group. A draw would be enough for the hosts here for that. I think the extra motivation factor has not been giving enough emphasis on in the betting market and there is in fact long-term historical data that when only one team has high motivation the probability of them winning can increase by over 10%..Today we do not quite have this situation but still the hosts have something big to play for, as mentioned above. The home advantage is also big here - the Welsh fans are terrific! It is always dangerous in football to try to defend a draw but if there is a team is capable of - and willing to try that it will be Wales at home! They have no need to entertain their fans here with offensive football - the home crowd are fully aware of what is at stake here for their team! Also, Belgium are a top-10 team in the World and better than Wales by raw class of course so risky attacking would be hard for the hosts to do anyway.. However, Belgium have not quite lived up to the huge, perhaps too big,  expectations in recent years and I think are often over-rated by the betting market,. They do not always seem to play as well as the list of players would indicate and were beaten by Italy in the EURO 2020 without having a true chance.. Before that they were a bit lucky to defeat Portugal 1-0. Today player rotating is expected from the visitors and Eden Hazard for example probably will not play for the full 90 minutes. Romelu Lukaku, their best striker is out due an injury - a big blow for Belgium. Wales will be without Ethan Ampadu.

To sum up, the hosts have over 60% chance to take at least a point here, even against a good opponent!