Austria vs Moldova

Austria host Moldova at Wörthersee Stadion in Klagenfurt for this interesting, not for entertainment, but mostly betting-wise, match. This is the final round of FIFA World Cup 2022 qualification. Both teams have already lost their chances to earn a ticket as a group winner for the World Cup or even for the extra qualification rounds, organized for the 2nd best team in each group. Moldova,of course, never even had a real chance to qualify anyway.. Let's take a closer look at this early Tuesday morning Beijing time match..

Moldova are a very bad team in my opinion and this the key idea behind this pick. I have watched 16 of their latest matches and they have not convinced me any of these matches! They have had their good moments but have been awful 95% of the time - even worse than the list of players would indicate.. They even have a few pretty good individuals - for example Artur Ionita plays Benevento in Italy but their team play and structure on the pitch are total rubbish. They have scored just one point in this group, as home favorites in March versus another lowly team Faroe Islands. It was a 1-1 draw but the visitors had 55% ball possession and created more scoring chances and recorded more attacks and dangerous attacks as well as competed passes. Their goal difference is 4:26 and have now lost six matches in a row. Their latest win was in a friendly versus another pretty low-level team Azerbaijan at home 1-0. However, also in this match their opponents had clearly more ball possession and recorded more scoring attempts.. In their most recent recent match they stood no real chance at home versus Scotland and lost 0-2 and created clearly less scoring chances - six - the visitors had 18. The shots on goal record was 3-9 in favor of the Scots. Before this they lost 1-2 in Israel and 0-4 at home to a very good team Denmark 0-4 failing to create any scoring attempts which is an unusually lousy statistic! Austria are of course not as good as Denmark but the difference is class is still not massive!

I have been pretty happy about Austria's performances in recent months and in last summer in EURO 2020. They for example lost to Denmark in Copenhagen only 1-0 about a month ago and did have their chances of scoring in the match! Yes, Denmark were better overall but did not dominate the battle. Let's also remember how well Austria performed in the EURO 2020 forcing the eventual Champions Italy to an extra match after goalless 90 minutes of play in the play offs. The match as a whole, especially the 90 minutes, was surprisingly balanced, but in the extra time Italy did earn the 2-1 win though.

Austria have been pretty solid in this qualification group despite Israel beating them 5-2 in Israel but this must be one of the most undeserved clear wins in international soccer in Europe for ages. First of all the visiting Austrians had 57% ball possession and created 19 scoring attempts whereas the Israelis managed to create only nine. The Austrians also recorded considerably more passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. It is also worth remembering that two of Israel goals were scored in situations where the scoring chance was around 2.5%. This can happen and will happen in football and and I feel this is one of the reason Austria are slightly under-valued in the betting market here! I also just watched the match from three days ago again against Israel and it was perhaps even bigger domination by the hosts than I expected, and even when Israel took a quite lucky 1-0 lead in the first half and 2-1 lead in the second did it not look like they are going to actually win the match and Austria did win 4-2 in the end. Austria had 59% ball possession, recorded 25 scoring chances - Israel had 7 and shots were 13-3 in the Austrians' favor. They also recorded much more attacks, dangerous attacks and completed passes. There are no high stakes here but Austria are expected to play with their best - or almost the best line-up - at least for most of the 90 mins. They also have talented players on the bench. They will want to give their loud fans a good show and have at least 60% chance to win by at least 3 goals difference against crappy Moldova!

To sum up, -2.5 goals handicap is a big one in football and seldom worth taking but here it seems even too small a handicap and -2.5 goals for Austria is still my pick to extend my awesome record of 13/15 wins in FIFA World Cup qualification matches!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

奥地利将在克拉根福的Wörthersee体育场迎战摩尔多瓦，这场有趣的比赛不是为了娱乐，而是为了赌博。这是2022年世界杯预选赛的最后一轮。这两支球队都已经失去了作为小组赢家获得世界杯入场券的机会，甚至连为每个小组第二名的球队组织的预选赛的入场券都没有了。当然，摩尔多瓦根本就没有真正的机会晋级。让我们仔细看看北京时间周二早上的这场比赛。

在我看来，摩尔多瓦是一支非常糟糕的球队，这就是被选中的关键。我看了他们最近的16场比赛，他们没有说服我任何一场比赛!他们有过美好的时刻，但95%的时候都很糟糕——甚至比球员名单上显示的还要糟糕。他们甚至有几个相当不错的球员，例如阿图尔·爱奥尼塔在意大利踢贝内文托，但他们的球队踢得和球场结构完全是垃圾。在这个小组中，他们只进了一分，他们是3月份主场热门球队，将对阵另一支实力较弱的球队法罗群岛。虽然是1比1的平局，但客队的控球率为55%，创造了更多的得分机会，并记录了更多的进攻和危险的进攻，以及竞争性的传球。他们的净胜球差是4:26，现在已经连续输了六场比赛。他们最近的一次胜利是在友谊赛中主场1:0战胜了另一支实力相当弱的球队阿塞拜疆。然而，在这场比赛中，他们的对手明显控球更多，并记录了更多的射门次数。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场对苏格兰的比赛中没有真正的机会，0-2输掉了比赛，创造的进球机会明显更少，只有6个，而客队有18个。进球记录为3-9，苏格兰队领先。在此之前，他们1-2输给了以色列，在主场0-4输给了一个非常好的球队丹麦，0-4没有创造任何得分机会，这是一个非常糟糕的数据!奥地利当然没有丹麦好，但是等级差别还是不大!

我对奥地利最近几个月和去年夏天在2020年欧洲杯上的表现非常满意。例如，大约一个月前，他们在哥本哈根以1-0输给了丹麦，在比赛中他们确实有进球的机会!是的，丹麦整体上更好，但并没有主导这场战役。让我们再回想一下奥地利在2020年欧洲杯上的出色表现，在附加赛90分钟的零进球后，最终迫使冠军意大利队加赛一场。整场比赛，特别是90分钟的比赛，令人惊讶地保持了平衡，但在加时赛中，意大利还是以2-1获胜。

尽管以色列5-2击败了奥地利，但奥地利在预选赛小组的表现相当稳固，但这肯定是欧洲国家队多年来最不值得的胜利之一。首先，客队的奥地利人控球率为57%，并创造了19次进球机会，而以色列人只创造了9次。奥地利人还记录了更多的传球、完成的传球、进攻和危险的进攻。同样值得记住的是，以色列有两个进球是在进球机会在2.5%左右的情况下进的。这在足球界可能发生，也将会发生，我觉得这是奥地利在这里的博彩市场上被略微低估的原因之一!我也刚从三天前看了比赛对阵以色列和它可能是主机比我预期的更大的统治,甚至当以色列花了相当幸运的上半年1 - 0的领先优势,在第二个2 - 1领先了实际上不像他们会赢得比赛和奥地利并最终4 - 2获胜。奥地利队的控球率为59%，有25次得分机会，以色列有7次，射门率为13-3，对奥地利队有利。他们还记录了更多的攻击，危险的攻击和完整的传球。这里没有什么大的赌注，但是奥地利将会用他们最好的或者几乎最好的阵容上场，至少在90分钟的大部分时间里。他们的板凳上也有才华横溢的球员。他们想要给他们的球迷一场精彩的表演，至少有60%的机会以至少3个进球的差距战胜糟糕的摩尔多瓦!