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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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4th WINNER in a row? 世预赛 苏格兰vs丹麦

2021-11-15

比赛分析

欧洲预选

已完赛

星期二2021-11-16 03:45

解读理由

Scotland vs Denmark

Scotland host Denmark at Hampden Park in Glasgow for this probably pretty entertaining and high-level, but most importantly betting-wise interesting match. This is the last round of FIFA World Cup 2022 qualification for both teams. Denmark are the group winners and qualify directly for the World Cup in Qatar next year. Scotland will be second and play in the qualification extra rounds next year. Let's take a closer look at this match taking place early Tuesday morning Beijing time..

Indeed, both teams must understandably be pretty happy about the situation and themselves too and feel relaxed ahead of this match. Denmark were the group favorites to begin with and Scotland were the strongest candidates to claim second place. The Danes have extended their great form - dating back to the second match in the EURO 2020 last summer. to this qualification campaign. They in fact lost the match 1-2 to a good team, Belgium. They were even slightly the better team in that match despite the challenging mental situation following Christian Eriksen horrible heart-attack in the opening match against Finland and would have deserved at least a draw. Eriksen was also one of their best players. After the Belgium match they crushed Russia in Copenhagen 4-1. In this qualification group Denmark have won all their matches, allowing just one goal and have played well but I think they do not fully deserve all the hype around them. They did make it all the way to the semifinals in EURO 2020 - losing to England but I would still not list them as a top-10 country in the World and feel the betting market values them a bit too high at the moment. The match against Austria for example a month ago was surprisingly balanced and Denmark won only 1-0 despite being very clear favorites. They have also beaten Faroe Islands "only" 1-0 and 3-1 in this qualification. Yes, they do have awesome players and a good coach, great team spirit and enthusiastic home fans but today the match is played in Glasgow and the stakes are low.. In this kind of matches the home advantage is usually bigger as the home team wants the entertain their fans and Scots, a people with great national pride, just love their team! The atmosphere will be great at the stadium. Some player rotating is very much possible here - or at least the top players not playing full 90 minutes is even pretty probably. All players want to avoid injuries in these kind of matches. This factors make the more balanced then it would be in a high stakes situation. Denmark are, of course, the better team by raw class but I would say are pretty slim favorites for this match and the wise bet here is without a doubt on Scotland. The Scots have won five matches in a row playing very good football and have solid, well-organized defense. A good example of this was a 0-0 draw versus eventual finalists England last summer in EURO 2020. England did not even have many scoring chances in that battle!

To sum, up a pretty balanced match is expected on Tuesday morning and my pick to extend my awesome record at World Cup qualifying matches is Scotland +0.5 goals handicap.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

苏格兰将在格拉斯哥的汉普顿公园主场迎战丹麦,这可能是一场非常有趣且高水平的比赛,但最重要的是,这是一场赌博式的有趣比赛。这是两支球队最后一轮的2022年世界杯预选赛。丹麦是小组第一,并直接获得明年卡塔尔世界杯的参赛资格。苏格兰队将获得第二名,并参加明年的资格赛加时赛。让我们来仔细看看这场比赛是在北京时间周二早上进行的。

的确,可以理解的是,两支球队都对现在的形势和他们自己感到非常高兴,在这场比赛之前感到很放松。丹麦是最受欢迎的国家,苏格兰是最有希望获得第二名的国家。丹麦人延续了他们伟大的状态——可以追溯到去年夏天欧洲杯的第二场比赛。为这次资格竞选干杯。事实上,他们以1比2输给了一支强队比利时。尽管埃里克森在对阵芬兰的首场比赛中心脏病发作,他们的精神状况很糟糕,他们在那场比赛中甚至表现得稍微好一些,他们本应该至少得到一场平局。埃里克森也是他们最好的球员之一。在与比利时的比赛后,他们在哥本哈根以4比1大胜俄罗斯。在预选赛小组中,丹麦赢得了所有的比赛,只进了一个球,而且踢得很好,但我认为他们不值得所有的炒作。他们确实一路杀入了2020年欧洲杯的半决赛——输给了英格兰,但我仍然不会把他们列为世界十大国家之一,我觉得现在博彩市场对他们的估值有点太高了。以一个月前对阵奥地利的比赛为例,令人惊讶的是比分平衡,尽管丹麦是热门球队,但它仅以1-0获胜。在资格赛中,他们“仅”以1-0和3-1击败了法罗群岛。是的,他们确实有很棒的球员和好教练,伟大的团队精神和热情的主场球迷,但今天的比赛在格拉斯哥举行,风险很低。在这种比赛中,主场优势通常更大,因为主队想要娱乐他们的球迷,苏格兰人,一个有着伟大民族自豪感的民族,只是爱他们的球队!体育场的气氛会很好。一些球员轮换在这里是非常有可能的——或者至少顶级球员没有打满90分钟是非常有可能的。所有的球员都希望避免在这类比赛中受伤。这些因素使它在高风险的情况下更加平衡。当然,丹麦是最好的球队,但我想说的是,在这场比赛中,他们的胜算不大,而苏格兰无疑是最明智的选择。苏格兰人踢得非常好,已经连续赢了五场比赛,他们的防守稳固、组织良好。一个很好的例子是在去年夏天的2020年欧洲杯上0-0战平最终决赛英格兰队。英格兰在那场战斗中甚至没有多少进球机会!

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