Brighton host Newvastle for the round 11 clash tonight. Neither team have achieved good results lately but I see the hosts as pretty clear favorites. Let's take a closer look..

Brighton were extremely unlucky in terms of expected goals and points last season and the betting market, football analysts  - including myself knew that they would improve for this season and they certainly have! They are in 8th place at the moment and have pretty much collected the number of points they have deserved. They started the season very well result-wise but lately have not been able to win. However, their football has been Okay and they have faced tough opponents. Last week they played an excellent match versus Liverpool at Anfield taking a 2-2 draw and even could have won. They created 1.50 in expected goals whereas Liverpool created just 1.40! There are not many teams that can get even a point at Anfield versus a stunningly good Liverpool. Before this they did not have much of a chance versus Manchester City but I rate them as the best team in the World followed by Bayern Munich so the 1-4 final score was no surprise.. They have in my opinion played just one disappointing match lately - versus Norwich which ended in a 0-0 draw. Norwich, however, had great energy in that match in front of their amazing fans. Before this match they should have been a much-improved Arsenal at home as they created some 1.30 in expected goals whereas Arsenals number was just 0.35. I think not winning lately means that the betting market does not value them enough here  -  -a betting opportunity for us.

Newcastle, on the other hand, have a bright future with the new owner but this season seems to be very hard. They have not improved under the new manager Eddie Howe despite stealing a point 2 weeks ago from Crystal Palace. They are currently in last place and I do not think they will improve a lot before new players are bought in January. Their defense in particular is very bad indeed and Brighton will likely score more than one goal here.

To sum up, the hosts have clearly over 60% chance to win this match.