In my opinion Borussia have really strong chances to make good result in today's match up. +0 AH looks like great bet here.

Both teams played each other 2 weeks ago and Ajax recorded huge 4:0 win at home, but Borussia not deserved such big loss. According to the expected goals scored model that was much closer game than final result suggests. Expected goals scored for Ajax 2.08 , for Borussia 1.23. We can see big overreaction in odds for today's game because of that result.

Borussia is still without Haland, but since loss against Ajax they played 3 matches without him and recorded 3 wins. For sure they coming here full of confidence. From what I saw they improved at the back as they conceded only one goal in last 3 games (from penalty kick). Even without Haland they are still extremely dangerous upfront - they scored more than one goal in last 3 matches in a row.

In overall both teams plays great season so far. Borussia is only one point behind Bayern after 10 matches - they grabbed 24 out of 30 possible points. Ajax is leader of the table in Eredivisie after 11 matches, but at the weekend they failed to win on away against poor Heracles (0:0). This is poor result because two Ajax offensive stars Tadic and Haller played in that game.

Group situation is clear - Ajax have 9 points after 3 rounds, they are 3 points above Borussia and 6 above Sporting so for them even draw will be good result and in these circumstances Borussia should be a team who have much bigger motivation to grab 3 points.

Home ground should make big difference today. Borussia is extremely strong at home. They went unbeaten in last 10 Champions League matches at group stage (they recorded 7 wins and 7 clean sheets in the process). Last time they lost in November 2017. Borussia didn't lost at home against Dutch opponents since 1996. Ajax failed to win in 8 of last 10 away matches against German teams in European Cups. Ajax record in last 10 away Champions League matches at group stage doesn't look so great: 5 wins, 4 losses and 1 draw.

All in all, Borussia is not worse team than Ajax. In my eyes they are better. They have bigger potential in their squad, they plays in better league. In addition to that they are great at home. I don't see their loss front of home crowd. +0 AH is very safe bet. Borussia should make at least one point, but I see good chances for them to finish with even more positive outcome.

在我看来，多特有很大的机会在今天的比赛中取得好成绩。胜+平看起来是个不错的选择。

两支球队在两周前交手，阿贾克斯在主场以 4:0 取得了巨大的胜利，但多特不应该遭受如此大的失利。预期进球模型显示两队的赛果应该会更加接近。阿贾克斯的预期进球数为 2.08，多特的预期进球数为 1.23。所以这场比赛应该会是更加接近的结果。

多特仍然没有哈兰德，但是自从输给阿贾克斯之后，他们在缺少哈兰德的情况下进行了 3 场比赛，并取得了 3 场胜利。他们肯定会满怀信心地来到这场比赛。从我看到的情况来看，他们在防线上取得了进步，因为他们在过去 3 场比赛中只丢了一个球（点球）。即使没有哈兰德，他们的前场仍然非常有威胁——他们在过去的 3 场比赛中连续进球。

总的来说，到目前为止，两支球队都打出了精彩的赛季。在 10 场比赛后，多特仅落后拜仁一分——他们在 30 分中获得了 24 分。阿贾克斯在 11 场比赛后成为荷甲积分榜的领先者，但在周末他们未能在客场击败赫拉克勒斯 (0:0)。这是一个糟糕的结果，因为阿贾克斯的两名进攻球星塔迪奇和阿莱都在那场比赛中出场。

小组赛情况很清楚——阿贾克斯3轮9分，比多特高出3分，比葡萄牙体育高出6分，所以平局对他们来说也是不错的结果，在这种情况下，多特应该是一支更有动力去抢3分的球队.

今天的主场应该会有很大的不同。多特蒙德在主场非常强大。他们在小组赛的最近10场欧冠比赛中保持不败（他们在此过程中取得了7场胜利，7次零封的成绩）。上一次他们输球是在 2017 年 11 月。自 1996 年以来，多特没有在主场输给荷兰对手。阿贾克斯在过去 10 场欧战对阵德国球队的客场比赛中有 8 场未能取胜。阿贾克斯最近10场欧冠小组赛客场战绩看起来不太好：5胜4负1平。

总而言之，多特并不比阿贾克斯差。在我眼里他们甚至更好。他们有更大的潜力，在更好的联赛中踢球。除此之外，他们在主场也很棒。我不认为他们会在主场观众前面吃到败仗。胜+平是很安全的选择。多特应该至少取得一分，但我认为他们很有可能以更积极的结果结束比赛。