Real Sociedad vs Atletic Bilbao

Real Sociedad host Atletic Bilbao at Reale Arena for this La Liga round 12 clash. The hosts have exceeded all expectations this season and are currently in third place in the standings with 24 points. Let's take a closer look at the match..

The hosts have indeed played well, no denying that, but have also had luck on their side and have scored a lot more points and goals than they should have in terms of expected goals. Their expected points number is about 18 points at the moment. By raw class I rate the visitors as slightly the better team in my power ratings. The hosts have started the season well in the past many times too - only to fade away and not being able to make it to the top-4 and earn a ticket to Champions League in the end of the season. It is a fact, that they just do not have enough top players in the squad and have too limited options to bring in from the bench. They, however, did make it to the Europa League where they have beaten a relatively lowly team Austrian Sturm Graz 1-0 away from home as close to 70% favorites according to the betting market. They have also played a 2-2 draw versus Dutch PSV and a 1-1 draw versus Monaco.  In their most recent La Liga match a few days ago they defeated a disappointing Celta Vigo 2-0 away from home and where the slightly better team but the match was pretty balanced and the 2-0 win does most certainly not reflect the events on the pitch. Some two weeks ago they beat a pretty small team Mallorca 1-0 at home creating only 0.40 in expected goals and were very lame and lacked creativity offensively. They defended  pretty well though - as they have done in most matches this season. Mallorca only created 0.35 in expected goals. Before this match they once again showed very little offensively and failed to beat a very bad team, the last one in the standings, Getafe, creating some 0.70 in expected goals. A week ago Real Sociedad took a quite undeserved point in Madrid versus Atlectico. The score was 2-2 but the hosts were clearly better creating almost two goal in goals expectancy whereas Real Sociedad's number was some 0.70. Atletico Madrid should have won at least by one goal's difference.

The visitors Athletic Bilbao are in terrific form indeed and have lost just one match so far this season in La Liga!  According to expected points and goals they have been unlucky. They do not have the best attack, I admit that but should have scored more than 10 goals. They will surely score more moving forward. Their defense is very good! I have raised their power rating from the start of the season but I think they are still under-valued by the betting market and we have a great good opportunity to place a beat on them taking at least a point today.

To sum up, visitors +1 handicap at 1.69 is my pick for my fans here!