A few weeks ago I would not have given Barcelona much of a chance, but they have gotten important players like Fati and Aguero back, their performances have improved, the results have improved, the noise over Koeman has silenced down at least momentarily, the results have brought the self-confidence back and as a matter of fact the starting-11 of Barcelona is good enough to win the league title!

Looking at the actual results and expected data the one conclusion we can make is that Real have rather vastly overperformed their goal expectation, they have scored 22 goals while the xG so far is 15, just like in the case of Barcelona.

Barcelona's xG so far in total goes hand in hand with the results, but the one thing to be noticed is that the team today is a lot better than month or two go, the return of Fati and Aguero, the rising of young Gavi in the midfield, the domination of Depay up front, and the attacking strenghts of Dest are all on the title winning level. Busquets and Pique have been on their normally reliable level.

So the problems remain in.... left-back and centre-back. Alba is not a great defensively, and he may even be out today which would lead to changes. Eric Garcia has been simply poor, and really I would not to see Lenglet there either.

A Real Madrid goal is rather guaranteed, but so is also Barcelonas!

At home they are 4-1-0, the one draw an unlucky one vs Granada, but the only good visitor so far has been Sociedad who were missing a dozen of players. However last time they were dominant vs Valencia and could had won by a bigger margin, and depending on the actual lineup tonight Barcelona might even be favourites to win against most of the markets.

But it will be even!

Real have had easy schedule so far, the best team they have met has been Villarreal and it ended in a 0-0. Benzema is scoring for fun. Vinicius has been a joy to follow, but there are big defensive issues. The full-backs concede goal chances, Militao makes deadly mistakes every now and then. Fati and Depay v Nacho and Kroos in the left, there can be only one winner!

A few doubts or injuries at both camps and some of them are kept in the dark, but in a bigger picture both can field title-winning starting elevens.

Neither wants to lose this, both can score, and both will settle to a draw towards to end, and even if backing a draw is always the riskiest thing to do this time it also offers big value with these odds.

1-1, Depay and Vinicius Jr to score.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

几周前我不会给巴塞罗那太多的机会，但他们已经找回了像法蒂和阿奎罗这样的重要球员，他们的表现有所改善，成绩也有所改善，关于科曼的噪音至少暂时平息了下来，结果让我们找回了自信，事实上巴塞罗那的首发11分已经足够好，足以赢得联赛冠军!

看看实际结果和预期数据，我们可以得出的一个结论是，皇马大大超出了他们的进球预期，他们已经进了22个球，而迄今为止的xG只有15个，就像巴塞罗那一样。

到目前为止，巴塞罗那的xG与比赛结果齐头并进，但值得注意的是，今天的球队比一两个月前好多了，法蒂和阿奎罗的回归，年轻的中场加维的崛起，德佩在前场的统治地位，以及德斯特的进攻力量都达到了夺冠的水平。

所以问题仍然存在于....左后卫和中后卫。阿尔巴在防守上并不出色，他今天甚至可能缺席比赛，这将导致球队发生变化。埃里克·加西亚一直很穷，而且我也真的不希望看到朗格莱在那里。

皇家马德里的进球是相当有保证的，但巴塞罗那也一样!

在主场，他们的比分是4-1-0，其中一场与格拉纳达的比赛不幸打成平局，但到目前为止，唯一好的客队是缺少12名球员的社会。但是在上次对阵瓦伦西亚的比赛中，他们占据了绝对优势，并有可能以更大的优势取胜。根据今晚的阵容，巴塞罗那甚至有可能成为赢得大多数市场的热门球队。

但它将是公平的!

到目前为止，皇马的赛程很轻松，他们遇到的最好的球队是比利亚雷亚尔，最终比分是0-0。本泽马进球是为了好玩。跟维尼休斯在一起很开心，但防守上也有很大问题。边后卫失去进球机会，米利涛时不时地犯致命的错误。法蒂和德佩对左边的纳乔和克罗斯，只能有一个赢家!

两个阵营都有一些疑问和伤病，其中一些还被蒙在蒙里，但从更大的角度来看，他们都能派出赢得冠军的首发11人。

双方都不想输掉这场比赛，双方都可以得分，双方都将在比赛结束前达成平局，即使支持平局总是风险最大的事情，但这也提供了很大的价值。

1比1，德佩和小维尼休斯得分。