In my opinion Sao Paulo have really good chances to make win in today's match up and I see excellent value on them.

Corinthians for sure not coming here full of confidence, they didn't won at this stadium in any of last 7 matches. Last match between both teams here in previous season finished with Sao Paulo 2:1 win. Is hard to imagine away win- Sao Paulo in overall is extremely solid at home. They didn't lost in 79 of last 89 home Serie A matched. It's really impressive record.

Corinthians have one new, very important absence before today's match. Their the best player in current season (according to the ratings), defender Fagner is suspended.

I'm not impressed by Corinthians performance in last round match. They won 1:0 at home against Fluminense, but that was very even, low quality encounter. On the other hand Sao Paulo failed to win at home against Ceara (1:1 ), but they played on very high level. They should make comfortable win there: expected goals scored for Sao Paulo 3.61, for Ceara 0.88.

Numbers not lying and without shadow of doubt Sao Paulo plays better at home than Corinthians on away. Sao Paulo 11 goals in 12 home matches, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 19.58. On the other hand Corinthians in current season conceded 8 goals in away matches, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 15.36. It's huge difference!

I see huge value on home side.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，圣保罗在今天的比赛中有很好的机会赢得比赛，我看到了他们的价值。

科林蒂安来这里肯定没有信心，他们在过去7场比赛中没有赢过任何一场。上个赛季两队在这里的最后一场比赛以圣保罗2:1的比分结束。很难想象客场的胜利，总的来说圣保罗在主场是非常稳固的。在最近89场意甲主场比赛中，他们没有输掉79场。这真是令人印象深刻的记录。

科林蒂安在今天的比赛前有一个非常重要的缺席。他们本赛季的最佳球员(根据评级)，后卫法纳被禁赛。

我对科林蒂安在上一轮比赛中的表现不太满意。他们在主场1:0战胜了弗卢米嫩塞，但这是一场非常均匀、低质量的交锋。另一方面，圣保罗在主场未能战胜塞阿拉(1:1)，但他们的水平非常高。他们应该会轻松取胜:圣保罗的预期进球数为3.61，塞阿拉为0.88。

数字不会说谎，毫无疑问，圣保罗主场的表现比科林蒂安客场更好。圣保罗在12场主场比赛中打进11球，但根据预期进球模式，他们应该打进19.58球。另一方面，科林蒂安在本赛季的客场比赛中丢了8个球，但根据预期失球数模型，他们应该丢15.36个。这是巨大的差异!