I waited with this bet until last moment because I wanted to see latest odds movements and most possible line ups for this game.

Odds on Kiel slashed down by 0.30 from opening odds and I fully agree with this trend. I expect even bigger drops prior to the kick off.

St. Pauli defense is very bad - they conceded at least one goal in all 14 league matches so far, in 11 matches they conceded more than one goal. Today problem in defense is even bigger - two key defenders Marvin Knoll (13 matches) and Sebastian Ohlsson (14 matches) are suspended today. Other defenders Avevor (6 matches) and Lawrence (6 matches) are still unavailable. I see huge problems for them. Kiel should be able to score at least one goal (big possibility for more). Kiel scored at least one goal in 13 of 14 matches of current season - 7 times they scored more than one goal.

Both teams going in different directions - St. Pauli is in relegation zone and plays very poor at home - 3 losses in 6 matches and 13 goals conceded. Kiel is on second place and looks like real contender to get promotion into Bundesliga. They didn't lost on away - 4 wins in 6 matches (2 draws).

Kiel have big advantage because this is not typical away match for them. It's not long travel. It's only around 1 hour drive by car from Kiel to St. Pauli. I trust for guests.

我一直等到最后一刻，因为我想看到最新的指数变化和最可能的首发阵容。

基尔的指数比一开始下降了0.30，我完全同意这个趋势。我预计开赛前会有更大的跌幅。

圣保利的防守非常糟糕——他们在迄今为止的14场联赛中至少丢了一个球，在11场比赛中丢了一个以上的球。今天防守方面的问题更大了——两名关键后卫马文·诺尔(13场比赛)和塞巴斯蒂安·奥尔森(14场比赛)今天被禁赛。其他后卫阿费弗(6场)和劳伦斯(6场)仍然无法上场。我认为他们面临着巨大的问题。基尔应该至少能进一个球(很有可能进更多)。基尔在本赛季的14场比赛中有13场至少进了一个球——他们有7次进了一个以上。

两支球队的目标不同——圣保利处于保级区，主场表现很差——6场比赛输3场，丢13个球。基尔现在排名第二，看起来很有希望晋级德甲。他们没有输掉客场比赛——6场比赛4胜(2平)。

基尔有很大的优势，因为这对他们来说不是一场典型的客场比赛。旅行时间不长。从基尔到圣保利只有大约一个小时的车程。我信任客队。